India has witnessed improvement in the labour market indicators in last six years, as per the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data, with the unemployment rate declining to 3.2 per cent in 2022-23. The Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament today by Union Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs Smt. Niramala Sitharaman, lays emphasis on the approach of Government of India for generating suitable employment opportunities, commensurate with the legitimate aspirations of India’s youth, necessary to reap the country’s once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend.

Current employment scenario

The Economic Survey mentions that India has witnessed a notable transformation in its employment landscape, marked by several positive trends contributing to economic growth and social development and credits the same to various factors, including economic reforms, technological advancements, and an emphasis on skill development.

According to PLFS, the all-India annual unemployment rate (UR) (persons aged 15 years and above, as per usual status) has been witnessing a declining trend since the COVID-19 pandemic accompanied by a rise in the labour force participation rate (LFPR) and worker-to-population ratio (WPR).

Highlighting the employment status of workers, the Survey mentions that it is the female workforce, which is shifting to self-employment, while the male workforce’s share has been stable as evident in the sharp rise in female LFPR in the past six years, driven by rural women joining agriculture and related activities.

Youth and female employment

Highlighting the rise in youth employment being in tandem with the youth population, the Economic Survey mentions the PLFS data of youth (age 15-29 years) unemployment rate declining from 17.8 per cent in 2017-18 to 10 per cent in 2022-23. Nearly two-thirds of the new subscribers in the EPFO payroll have been from the 18-28 years band.

The Survey also highlights the rising female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) for six years and attributes the same to multiple factors, including continuous high growth in agriculture output and freeing up of women’s time due to substantial expansion of access to basic amenities such as piped drinking water, clean cooking fuel, sanitation, etc.

Turnaround in Factory employment

The Economic Survey says that organized manufacturing sector has recovered to above pre-pandemic level along with the higher wage growth seen in the rural areas during the last five years, which bodes well for demand creation in the countryside. During FY15-FY22, the wages per worker in rural areas grew at 6.9 per cent CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) vis-à-vis a corresponding 6.1 per cent CAGR in urban areas.

State-wise, the top six states in terms of the number of factories, were also the greatest factory employment creators. More than 40 per cent of factory employment was in Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, and Maharashtra. In contrast, the highest employment growth between FY18 and FY22 was seen in states with a higher share of young population, including Chhattisgarh, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

The Survey also mentions the rising heft of computers and electronics, rubber and plastic products, and chemicals indicating  that Indian manufacturing is moving up the value chain and have emerged as sunrise sectors for manufacturing employment generation.

EPFO Enrolment on rise

The organised sector job market conditions measured by payroll data for EPFO indicate a consistent year-on-year (YoY) increase in payroll addition since FY19 (the earliest since data

is available). The yearly net payroll additions to the EPFO more than doubled from 61.1 lakh in FY19 to 131.5 lakh in FY24, swiftly recovering from the pandemic aided by the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojana (ABRY). The EPFO membership numbers (for which older data is available) also grew by an impressive 8.4 per cent CAGR between FY15 and FY24.

          Impetus to Employment Generation

The government has implemented a series of measures to boost employment generation, such as the rollout of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme to enhance India’s manufacturing capabilities, increase in capital expenditure, etc., and to promote worker welfare. This has been accompanied by a boost to self-employment through easing of access to credit, and multiple process reforms. The Survey mentions some of the initiatives to foster job creation and workers’ welfare such as launch of National Career Service (NCS) Portal, e-Shram portal, introduction of Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojana (ABRY) for boosting employment with social security benefits post-COVID-19 job losses, programmes such as One Nation One Ration Card and amalgamation of  29 Central Laws into four Labour Codes in 2019 and 2020.

Trend in rural wages

The Economic Survey 2023-24 mentions that in FY24, rural wages rose at above-5 per cent every month, Y-o-Y and on an average, nominal wage rates in agriculture grew by 7.4 per cent for men and 7.7 per cent for women, benefitting from robust agriculture growth during the period. The wage growth in non-agricultural activities was at 6.0 per cent for men and 7.4 per cent for women during the same period. Going forward, as inflation is expected to soften with the easing of international commodity prices and domestic food prices, the economic survey expects this to translate into a sustained rise in real wages.

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