INCOIS started releasing Specialized El Nino Bulletins to highlight the possible impacts of the ongoing El Nino on the Maritime Sectors. The first specialized bulletin was released by Shri. Konda Vishweshwar Reddy Garu, Hon'ble Member of Parliament, Chevella Constituency on 22nd June 2026 in an event held at INCOIS.

The bulletin confirms that the El Nino event continues to develop and is expected to peak in the winter season (November 2026 to January 2027). As a result, the sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean will be higher than normal until April/May 2027. The marine ecosystem in the northern Indian Ocean (both Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal) is likely to be under thermal stress in the coming months, especially during March-May 2027. This can lead to increased bleaching of coral reefs, more episodes of marine heat waves and reduction in the fish catch (particularly sardine and mackerel species) due to migration of fish stock to suitable habitats or due to decrease in the recruitment. Further, the fish may not reach the desired sizes due to changes in the marine environmental conditions related to the developing El Nino.

The sea state in the Bay of Bengal will remain rough during the monsoon season and there are chances for increased coastal erosion and flooding in the east coast of India. On a positive note, the sea state in the Arabian Sea and west coast is likely to be calmer than usual which can increase the window for operations of various marine sectors. Coastal erosion and inundation is likely to be less in the west coast during the ongoing monsoon season.

INCOIS advises all maritime operators to closely follow the alerts, warnings and advisories issued by INCOIS from time to time. The next specialized bulletin will be issued in the second week of July 2026.

Release of Specialized El Nino Bulletin by Shri. Konda Vishweshwar Reddy Garu, Hon'ble Member of Parliament, Chevella Constituency.

Potential impacts of ongoing El Nino event on Indian Ocean Maritime sectors.

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NKR/JKP