The National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is releasing in this Press Note, the Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April-June Quarter (Q1) of Financial Year (FY) 2025-26 along with its Expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. Quarterly Estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices for various economic sectors along with Year-on-Year percent changes, Expenditure components of GDP for Q1 of the FY 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 at Constant and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 4 of Annexure A.

Key Highlights:

• Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.8% in Q1 of FY 2025-26 over the growth rate of 6.5% during Q1 of FY 2024-25.
• Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 8.8% in Q1 of FY 2025-26.
• Agriculture and Allied Sector has observed the Real GVA growth rate of 3.7%, as compared to the growth rate of 1.5% registered in Q1 of last financial year.
• Secondary Sectors, prominently Manufacturing (7.7%) and Construction (7.6%) Sector has registered above 7.5% growth rate at Constant Prices in this quarter.
• Mining & Quarrying (-3.1%) and Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services Sector (0.5%) has seen moderated Real growth rate during Q1 of FY 2025-26.
• Tertiary Sector (9.3%) has recorded substantial growth rate at Constant Prices in Q1 of FY 2025-26, over the growth rate of 6.8% in Q1 of FY 2024-25.
• Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) has bounced back, registering 9.7% growth rate in Nominal terms during Q1 of FY 2025-26, over the growth rate of 4.0% in Q1 of FY 2024-25
• Real Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) has reported 7.0% growth rate during Q1 of FY 2025-26 as compared to the 8.3% growth rate in the corresponding period of previous financial year.
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has recorded 7.8% growth rate at Constant Prices, over the growth rate of 6.7% in Q1 of FY 2024-25.

I. Quarterly Estimates and Growth Rates

            Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in Q1 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹47.89 lakh crore, against ₹44.42 lakh crore in Q1 of FY 2024-25, registering a growth rate of 7.8%. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in Q1 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹86.05 lakh crore, against ₹79.08 lakh crore in Q1 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.8%.

            Real GVA in Q1 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹44.64 lakh crore, against ₹41.47 lakh crore in Q1 of FY 2024-25, registering a growth rate of 7.6%. Nominal GVA in Q1 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹78.25 lakh crore, against ₹71.95 lakh crore in Q1 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.8%.

Fig. 1: Quarterly GDP and GVA Estimates along with Y-o-Y Growth Rates from Q1 FY 2022-23 to Q1 FY 2025-26 at Constant Prices

Fig. 2: Sectoral Composition and Growth Rates of Quarterly GVA

Fig. 3: Composition and Growth Rates of Quarterly GVA in Broad Sectors

[Primary Sector: Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing and Mining & Quarrying

Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water supply & Other Utility Services and    Construction

Tertiary Sector: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting, Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services]

II. Methodology and Major Data Sources:     

            Quarterly Estimates of GDP are compiled using the Benchmark-indicator method i.e., the estimates available for the same quarter of the previous financial year (2024-25) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. Data sourced from various Ministries/Departments/Private Agencies serve as valuable inputs in the compilation of these estimates.

            The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators, such as (i) Crop production targets for Agriculture Year (AY) 2025-26 and Third Advance Estimates of Production of Food grains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for AY 2024-25, (ii) Second Advance Estimates of Area & Production of Horticulture crops for AY 2024-25, (iii) Summer Season Estimates of Major Livestock Products for FY 2025-26, (iv) Fish Production estimates for Q1 of FY 2025-26, (v) Financial performance of Listed Companies based on available quarterly financial results of these companies for Q1 of FY 2025-26, (vi) Production of Coal, Crude Petroleum, Natural Gas, Cement and Consumption of Steel,  (vii) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (viii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (ix) Air Passenger and Cargo traffic handled at Airports, (x) Cargo traffic handled at Major and Minor Sea Ports, (xi) Sales of Commercial vehicles, (xii) Bank Deposits and Credits, (xiii) Premium related information of Life and Non-Life Insurance Companies, (xiv) Outward Supply of Goods and Services available from GSTN for Q1 of FY 2025-26, (xv) Accounts of Central & State Governments etc. available for the Q1 of 2025-26, (xvi) Goods and Services Tax collection for Q1 of FY 2025-26 etc. Year-on-Year growth rates (%) reflected in the major indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure B.

           Total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST revenue. Information from the websites of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices. For compiling taxes on products at Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies at Current Prices for Centre were compiled using information on major subsidies viz, Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy upto Q1 of FY 2025-26. The total product subsidies at Current Prices for State were compiled using information on expenditure incurred on total subsidies by States upto Q1 of FY 2025-26. Information available on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. from Centre and States were used for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

          Improved data coverage and revision in input data made by source agencies would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take these into consideration while interpreting the figures. The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter July-September of FY 2025-26 (Q2, FY 2025-26) will be released on 28.11.2025.

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Annexure A

Annexure B

Year-on-Year Growth Rates (%) in Major Indicators

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Samrat / Allen