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  PART A

Annexure B

PART B

NOTE ON FIRST REVISED & FINAL ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, NATIONAL INCOME, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION FOR 2023-24 & 2022-23 RESPECTIVELY

            In this part of the press note, First Revised Estimates of GDP, National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2023-24 and Second Revised/ Final Estimates for the financial year 2022-23 are given.

2.         The First Revised Estimates for the year 2023-24 have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of using the benchmark-indicator method employed at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on 31^st May, 2024. The estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other aggregates for the year 2022-23 have also undergone revisions on account of use of latest available datasets on agricultural production; industrial production (final results of Annual Survey of Industries: 2022-23); government data as available in budget documents (replacing Revised Estimates with actuals for the year 2022-23); comprehensive data available from various source agencies like Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) etc. and additional data from State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics (DES).

3.         The salient features of the revised estimates at aggregate level are given in the paras as follows.

Gross Domestic Product

4.         Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2023-24 and 2022-23 stands at ₹176.51 lakh crore and ₹161.65 lakh crore, respectively, showing a growth of 9.2 per cent during 2023-24 as compared to growth of 7.6 per cent during 2022-23.

5.         Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2023-24 is estimated at ₹301.23 lakh crore, against ₹268.90 lakh crore for the year 2022-23, showing a growth of 12.0 per cent during 2023-24 as compared to growth of 14.0 per cent during 2022-23.

GVA and its Industry-wise Analysis

6.         At the aggregate level, nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices has increased by 11.2 per cent during 2023-24 compared to growth of 13.9 per cent during 2022-23. Real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12) prices, has increased by 8.6 per cent in 2023-24, compared to 7.2 per cent growth in 2022-23.

7.         The shares of broad sectors of the economy in overall GVA during 2011-12 to 2023-24 and the annual growth rates during these periods are mentioned below:

#: Final Estimates; @: First Revised Estimates

8.         The growth rates of Primary sector (comprising Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fishing and Mining & Quarrying), Secondary sector (comprising Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services, and Construction) and Tertiary sector (Services) have been estimated as 2.7 per cent, 11.4 per cent and 9.0 per cent respectively in 2023-24 as against growth rates of 5.9 per cent, 2.4 per cent and 10.3 per cent respectively in the previous years. The growth in real GVA during 2023-24 is on account of growth in ‘Manufacturing’, ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’, ‘Construction’, ‘Trade, repair, Hotels and Restaurants’, ‘Financial Services’, ‘Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling & Professional Services’ and ‘Other services’ as may be seen from Statement 4.2B. However, ‘Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’ and ‘Public Administration and Defense’ have witnessed modest growth.

Net National Income

9.         Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for the year 2023-24 stands at ₹263.50 lakh crore as against ₹233.91 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth of 12.7 per cent during 2023-24 as compared to growth of 13.3 per cent in the previous year.

Gross National Disposable Income

10.       Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated at ₹305.94 lakh crore for the year 2023-24, while the estimate for the year 2022-23 stands at ₹273.39 lakh crore, showing a growth of 11.9 per cent for year 2023-24 as compared to growth of 14.3 per cent in the year 2022-23.

Saving

11.       Gross Saving during 2023-24 is estimated at ₹92.59 lakh crore against ₹82.44 lakh crore during 2022-23. Share of Non-financial corporations, Financial corporations, General Government and Household sectors in Gross Savings during 2023-24 stands at 36.0%, 8.2%, (-) 3.1% and 59.0% respectively. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for 2023-24 is estimated at 30.3 per cent as against 30.2 per cent for 2022-23.

Capital Formation

12.       Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated at ₹94.68 lakh crore for the year 2023-24 as compared to ₹87.72 lakh crore during 2022-23. The rate of GCF to GDP is 31.4 per cent during 2023-24 as against 32.6 per cent in the 2022-23. The rates of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2019-20 and 2021-22 to 2023-24 have been higher than the rate of saving because of positive net capital flow from Rest of the World (RoW).

13.       In terms of the share to the total GFCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is Non-Financial Corporations followed by Household sector, share of which stood at 44.2% and 41.7% respectively in 2023-24.

14.       The rate of GCF to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices was 35.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 34.6 per cent in 2023-24.

Consumption Expenditure

15.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹181.30 lakh crore for the year 2023-24 as against ₹165.28 lakh crore in 2022-23. In relation to GDP, the PFCE to GDP ratio at current prices during 2022-23 and 2023-24 are 61.5 per cent and 60.2 per cent respectively. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ₹93.85 lakh crore and ₹99.07 lakh crore, respectively for the years 2022-23 and 2023-24. The corresponding PFCE to GDP ratio for the years 2022-23 and 2023-24 are 58.1 per cent and 56.1 per cent respectively.

16.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹31.04 lakh crore for the year 2023-24 as against ₹27.58 lakh crore during 2022-23. At constant (2011-12) prices the estimates of GFCE for the years 2022-23 and 2023-24 stand at ₹15.44 lakh crore and ₹16.70 lakh crore respectively.

Per Capita Estimates

17.       Per Capita Income i.e. Per Capita Net National Income at current prices is estimated at ₹1,69,145 and ₹1,88,892 respectively for the years 2022-23 and 2023-24. Per Capita PFCE at current prices, for the years 2022-23 and 2023-24 is estimated at ₹1,19,516 and ₹1,29,967 respectively.

Summary of Revisions in the GDP Estimates

Revision in the estimates of the year 2023-24

18.       The following statement gives the major reasons of variation between the Provisional Estimates (released on 31^st May, 2024) and the First Revised Estimates of GVA for 2023-24.

[Primary Sector: Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing and Mining & Quarrying 

Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water supply & Other Utility Services and    Construction

Tertiary Sector: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting, Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services]

Revisions in the estimates of the year 2022-23

19.       The use of latest available data from various agencies has resulted in changes in both the levels of GVA and growth estimates for the years 2022-23.

Revisions in Major Aggregates

20.       The level of revisions in the major aggregates at current and constant (2011-12) prices are given in the following table:

Major National Income Aggregates and their % Changes

                                                                                   (₹ in Lakh Crore)

Major reasons for revisions in GVA/GDP estimates for FY 2022-23 are as given below:

• Use of updated production estimates (Final Estimates) of horticulture crops from Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, increase in area under fodder crop and increase in production of sugarcane.
• Increase in input value due to use of Cost of Cultivation Survey (CCS) 2022-23 and Electricity tariff for agriculture sector for the year 2022-23.
• Use of updated information from NDE and updated information on minor minerals from States in case of Mining & Quarrying sector.
• Use of final results of Annual Survey of Industries (ASI): 2022-23 and augmented data for non-financial private corporate sector.
• Use of ‘Actuals’ in place of ‘Revised Estimates’ of different items of expenditure and receipts in the Central & State government budgets.
• Use of updated information on Local Bodies & Autonomous Institutions.
• Use of latest annual reports of Public Sector Enterprises.
• Use of latest data received for Cooperative Banks, Post Office Saving Bank (POSB), Non-Banking Financial Institutions (NBFIs), and Financial Auxiliaries.

Detailed statements

21.       List of Statements released in part ‘B’ of the press note is given below. More details of the revised estimates, i.e., FRE 2023-24 and FE 2022-23 are available in Statements 1.1B to 9B of Annexure C, which are given in the PDF format of the press note.

1. Statement 1.1B:          Key Aggregates of National Accounts at Current Prices
2. Statement 1.2B:          Key Aggregates of National Accounts at Constant (2011-12) Prices
3. Statement 2B:             Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption
4. Statement 3.1B:          Output by Economic Activity and Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Current Prices
5. Statement 3.2B:          Output by Economic Activity and Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Constant (2011-12) Prices
6. Statement 4.1B:          Gross Value Added by Economic Activity at Current Basic Prices
7. Statement 4.2B:          Gross Value Added by Economic Activity at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices
8. Statement 5B:             Finances for Gross Capital Formation
9. Statement 6.1B:          Gross Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Current Prices
10. Statement 6.2B:          Gross Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Constant (2011-12) Prices
11. Statement 7.1B:          Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Asset & Institutional Sector at Current Prices
12. Statement 7.2B:          Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Asset & Institutional Sector at Constant (2011-12) Prices                   
13. Statement 8.1B:          Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Current Prices
14. Statement 8.2B:          Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Constant (2011-12) Prices
15. Statement 9B:             Institutional Sectors – Key Economic Indicators at Current Prices

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Annexure C

FORMULAE

1. GVA at basic prices (Production Approach) = Output at basic prices – Intermediate Consumption
2. GVA at basic prices (Income Approach) = CE + OS/MI + CFC + Production taxes less Production subsidies⁽ⁱ⁾
3. GDP = ∑ GVA at basic prices + Product taxes less Product subsidies⁽ⁱⁱ⁾
4. NDP/NNI = GDP/GNI - CFC
5. GNI = GDP + Net primary income from ROW (Receipts less payments)
6. Primary Incomes = CE + Property and Entrepreneurial Income
7. NNDI =NNI + other current transfers⁽ⁱⁱⁱ⁾ from ROW, net (Receipts less payments)
8. GNDI = NNDI + CFC = GNI + other current transfers⁽ⁱⁱⁱ⁾ from ROW, net (Receipts less payments)
9. Gross Capital Formation^(iv) (Financing Side) = Gross Savings + Net Capital Inflow from ROW
10. GCF (Expenditure Side) = GFCF + CIS + Valuables
11. Gross Disposable Income of Govt. = GFCE + Gross Saving of General Government
12. Gross Disposable Income (GDI) of Households = GNDI – GDI of Govt. – Gross Savings of All Corporations

REMARKS ON THE FORMULAE

1. Production taxes or subsidies are paid or received with relation to production and are independent of the volume of actual production. Some examples are:

Production Taxes - Land Revenues, Stamps & Registration fees and Tax on profession

Production Subsidies - Subsidies to Railways, Subsidies to village and small industries.

2. Product taxes or subsidies are paid or received on per unit of product. Some examples are:

Product Taxes- Goods & Service Tax, Excise duties, Sales tax, Service Tax and Import, Export duties

Product Subsidies- Food, Petroleum and fertilizer subsidies.

3. Other Current Transfers refers to current transfers other than the primary incomes.

Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at the current as well as the constant prices is estimated by two approaches: – (i) through flow of funds, derived as Gross Saving plus net capital flow from Rest of the World (RoW); and (ii) by the commodity flow approach, derived by the type of assets.