According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD): (TIME OF ISSUE:815HOURS IST, DATED: 17.05.2021, INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT)

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved north-north-westwards with a speed of about 20 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of 17^th May, 2021 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 18.5°N and longitude 71.5°E, about 160 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 290 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat), 250 km south-southeast of Diu and 840 km south-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).

It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17^th& cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) during the night (2000 – 2300 hrs IST) of 17^th May as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained wind speed 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Warnings:

(i)         Rainfall: 

• Konkan & adjoining Madhya Maharashtra: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls and extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May and isolated heavy rainfall over north Konkan on 18^th May.
• Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and  extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over southern districts of Saurashtra, Diu and Gujarat region on 17^th& 18^th May. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall also likely over Kutch during the same period.
• Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Rajasthan on 18^th& heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Rajasthan on 19^th May.

(ii) Wind warning

• Gale wind speed reaching 180–190 kmph gusting to 210 kmph is likely to prevailing over eastcentral Arabian Sea during next six hours
• Gale winds speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph is likely to prevail along & off Maharashtra coast on 17^th and gradually decrease thereafter.
• Gale wind speed reaching 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph is prevailing over adjoining northeast Arabian Sea. It would gradually increase becoming 170–180 kmph gusting to 200 kmph from forenoon for subsequent 12 hrs and decrease thereafter
• Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is prevailing along and off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts. It is likely to increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph along & off Gujarat coast (Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar) and 120 -140 kmph gusting to 165 kmph over Bharuch, Anand, south Ahmedabad, Botad, Porbandar, 90 -100 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Morbi, Kheda districts of Gujarat from tonight till 18^th early morning. Gale winds speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph likely to prevail along & off Dadra, Nagar Haveli, Daman, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Surendranagar, districts from 17^th evening till 18^th morning.

(iii) Sea condition

• Sea conditions will be Phenomenal over eastcentral and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea till 18^th morning and improve gradually thereafter.
• Sea conditions will be High to very High along & off Maharashtra coast during next 12 hours and improve thereafter.
• It is very likely to be High along & off south Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli coasts during next 6 hours and thereafter Phenomenal till 18^th morning. It will improve gradually thereafter.

(iv)Storm surge warning

• Tidal wave above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas as per details below:

about 3 meter (m) over Amreli, Gir Somnath, Diu, Bhavnagar, 2-3 m over Bharuch, Anand, southern parts of Ahmedabad, 1-2 m over Surat, Navsari, Valsad, and 0.5 – 1m over the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall.

(v)        Fishermen Warning

• Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral Arabian Sea, northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli coasts till the Noon of 18^th May.
• The fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral Arabian Sea along & off Maharashtra - Goa coasts and into northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli coast till 18^th May.
• Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

(vi) (A) Damage Expected over Porbandar, Amreli Junagarh, Gir Somnath Botad & Bhavnagar and coastal areas of Ahmedabad:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses.  Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
• Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.  Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.
• Widespread damage to salt pans & standing crops,. Blowing down of bushy trees.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
• Visibility severely affected.

 (B) Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Kutch, Jamnagar, Rajkot & Morbi, Valsad, Surat, Vadodara, Bharuch, Navsari, Anand, Kheda and interior parts of Ahmedabad districts of Gujarat:

• Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Minor damage to power and communication lines.
• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
• Major damage to coastal crops.
• Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vii) Action Suggested:

• Mobilise evacuation in vulnerable areas.
• Total suspension of fishing operations.
• Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.
• People in affected areas to remain indoors. 
• Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.

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SS/RP/ (IMD input)