The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is releasing in this Press Note the Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income, 2021-22 as well as Quarterly Estimates of GDP for the quarter October-December (Q3), 2021-22 along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts.

2. Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity, Expenditure components of GDP besides quarterly estimates and April-December Estimates for the years 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with percent changes, are given in Statements 1 to 12.
3. Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 147.72 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2020-21 of ₹ 135.58 lakh crore, released on 31.01.2022. The growth in GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 8.9 percent as compared to a contraction of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.

 

4. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 236.44 lakh crore, as against ₹ 198.01 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth rate of 19.4 percent.

 

5. GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2021-22 is estimated at ₹ 38.22 lakh crore, as against ₹ 36.26 lakh crore in Q3 of 2020-21, showing a growth of 5.4 percent.

 

6.              The Advance Estimates of National Income are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year referred to as the benchmark year (2020-21 in this case) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. The First Advance Estimates (FAE) for 2021-22, based on very limited data and by using Provisional Estimates of 2020-21 (released on 31.05.2021) for the benchmark year, were earlier released on 07.01.2022.

 

7.         The First Revised Estimates (FRE) for the year 2020-21 compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information was released on 31.01.2022.  For compilation of SAE 2021-22, the Provisional Estimates of 2020-21 used at the time of FAE have been replaced by FRE 2020-21. Thus, variations in SAE from FAE is attributed to revision of benchmark estimates and additional data available on various indicators like CPI, IIP, Revised Estimates of fiscal data, financial results of listed companies etc. used for compiling the estimates for 2021-22. The quarterly estimates of previous years along with the first and second quarter estimates of 2021-22 released earlier have also undergone revision in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts.

8.         The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate Sector available upto quarter ending December, 2021 (iii) Second Advance Estimates of crop production, (iv) Production of major livestock products in Rainy season, (v) Accounts of Central & State Governments (vi) Bank Deposits & Credits, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (viii) Passengers and Cargo handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo handled at Major Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, etc., available for first 9/10 months of the financial year. Annual projections for 2021-22 for passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, cargo handled at major sea ports made available by the concerned agencies were also made use of in compilation of estimates of respective sectors. Extrapolation of some indicators like IIP has been done by making use of the information available for the first 9 months of the current financial year along with necessary modification in the projection technique to account for the pandemic led fluctuations. Percentage changes in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure.        

9.         The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue. The Revised Estimates of tax revenue for 2021-22 as available in the Annual Financial Statement of the Central Government for 2022-23, latest information on the websites of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices.  For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies for Centre were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy as available on CGA website, additional information on food subsidy provided by the Ministry of Finance and Revised Estimates for 2021-22.  The expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States upto December 2021 as available on CAG website along with the Centre/Statewise BE provision for 2021-22 were used to compile product subsidies of States. Latest information available on Revenue Expenditure, Interest Payments, Subsidies etc. for Centre and those based on detailed analysis of budget documents of States for 2021-22 were also put to use for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

10.       Actual performance of various indicators, actual tax collections and expenditure incurred on subsidies in the following months, data revisions made by other source agencies etc. would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take this into consideration when interpreting the figures.

11.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter January-March, 2022 (Q4 of 2021-22) and Provisional Annual Estimates for the year 2021-22 will be on 31.05.2022.

 

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Annexure

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DS/VJ

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