According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD): (TIME OF ISSUE: 0810 HOURS IST, DATED: 16.05.2021, INDIAMETEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT)

The VerySevere Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved nearly northwards with a speed of about 11 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 16^th May, 2021 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 15.0°N and longitude 72.7°E, about 130 km west-southwest of Panjim-Goa, 450 km south of Mumbai, 700 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat) and 840 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).

It is very likely to intensify during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17^th& cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) around 18^th May early morning.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Warnings:

(i)         Rainfall: 

• Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th and heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May.

• Karnataka (coastal & adjoining Ghat districts): Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th.

• Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Konkan & Goa & adjoining Ghat areas on 16^th and heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May over north Konkan.

• Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at many places very likely to commence over coastal districts of Saurashtra from 16^th May afternoon, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch and Diu and extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra & Kutch and Diu with extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places on 18^th.

• Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Rajasthan on 18^th& over Rajasthan on 19^th May.

(ii) Wind warning

• Gale wind speed reaching 120–130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph is prevailing over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It is likely to increase over eastcentral Arabian Sea becoming 145-155 kmph gusting to 170 kmph from 16^th May morning.

• Gale winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph along & off south Maharashtra –Goa  and adjoining Karnataka coasts on 16^th , 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast on 16^th. It is likely to become 65- 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast from 17^th till 18^th morning.

• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts from 16th morning and gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast (Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli) and 120 -150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Bhavnagar districts of Gujarat from early hours of 18th. Gale winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph likely to prevail along & off Dadra, Nagar Haveli, Daman, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Bharuch, southern parts of Ahmedabad, Anand districts from 17^th mid-night till 18^th morning.

(iii) Sea condition

• Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be very high to Phenomenal on 16^th May and over northeast Arabian Sea on 17^th& 18^th May.

• Sea conditions will be very rough to High along & off Maharashtra–Goa coasts on 16^th May and along & off north Maharashtra coast on 17^th Morning. It is very likely to be very rough to High along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 17^th midnight.

(iv)Storm surge warning

            Tidal wave of about 3 m Junagarh,1-2.5 m above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas of Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bharuch, Bhavnagar, Ahmedabad, Anand, Surat  and about 0.5 -1m over Devbhoomi Dwarka , Jamnagar, Porbandar, Kutch the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall.(Details enclosed).

(v)        Fishermen Warning

• Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Karnataka-Goa–Maharashtra coasts.

• Total suspension of fishing operations over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast from 17^th May.

• The fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast till 17^th Morning and into eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra–Goa coasts and into northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18^th May.

• Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

(vi) (A) Damage Expected over Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Jamnagar & Bhavnagar districts of Gujarat:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses.  Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.

• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.

• Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.  Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.

• Widespread damage to salt pans & standing crops, Blowing down of bushy trees.

• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

• Visibility severely affected.

(vi) (B) Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Rajkot, Botad & Morbi districts of Gujarat:

• Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.

• Minor damage to power and communication lines.

• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.

• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.

• Major damage to coastal crops.

• Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vii) Action Suggested:

• Total suspension of fishing operations.

• Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.

• People in affected areas to remain indoors. 

• Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.

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(Please CLICK HERE for details in graphics)

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SS/RP/ (IMD input)