According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD):

Highlights

During the upcoming winter season (December to February), below normal minimumtemperatures are likely over most subdivisions of north, northwest, central and fewsubdivisions over east India.

1. Background

Since 2016, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has beenissuing seasonal forecast outlooks for subdivision scale temperatures over the country for both hot and coldweather seasons. These predictions are based on the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System(MMCFS) Model developed under MoES’s monsoon mission project. IMD has now prepared Seasonaloutlook for the subdivision averaged temperatures for the upcoming winter season (December 2020 to

February 2021) and the same is presented here.

The MMCFS has a spatial resolution of about 38 km and improved modules of model physics. Themodel climatology was prepared based on retrospective forecasts for 16 years (2003-2018). The seasonaltemperature forecast outlook was prepared using MMCFS simulations based on the 2020 November initialconditions. The forecast was prepared using 34 ensemble member forecasts. The model hindcasts andforecasts were bias corrected using the probability distribution function (pdf) method. The model hindcastsshow moderate skill over many subdivisions over northwest and central India during the period 2003-2018.

 

2. Forecast for the DJF Season (December 2020 to February 2021)

 

Fig.1 and Fig.2 show predicted sub-divisional probability and subdivision averaged minimum andmaximum temperature anomalies (departures from the long term normal) respectively for December 2020 toFebruary 2021 (DJF) season. The probability forecast for minimum temperature (Fig.1) indicates that belownormal minimum temperatures are likely over most subdivisions of north, northwest, central and a fewsubdivisions of east India. Most of the subdivisions of northeast India, few subdivisions of west coast andsouth peninsular India are likely to experience above normal minimum temperatures.

 

The probability forecast for maximum temperature (Fig.2) indicates that above normal maximumtemperatures are likely over most subdivisions of northwest, north, east and northeast India and a fewsubdivisions of central and peninsular India. Most of the subdivisions of south peninsular India are likely toexperience below normal maximum temperatures.

 

3. ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean

Currently, Sea Surface Temperatures are below normal over central and eastern equatorial PacificOcean and moderate La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest MMCFSforecast indicates that the moderate La Niña conditions are likely to continue at least till the end of winterseason.

 

4. Extended Range Forecast Services

IMD also provides extended range forecasts (7 –day averaged forecasts for the next four weeks) ofmaximum and minimum temperatures over the country updated every week. This is based on the Multi-modelensemble dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System currently operational at IMD. The forecasts areavailable through IMD website

 (https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/extendedrangeforecast.php)

.

Fig1. Probability forecast & Subdivision averaged Minimum Temperature Anomaly forecast for December 2020 to February 2021

Maximum Temperature

Fig2. Probability forecast & Subdivision averaged Maximum Temperature Anomalyforecast for December 2020 to February 2021

Video  Seasonal Outlook for the Temperatures during December 2020 to February, 2021:

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NB/KGS/(IMD Release)

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