Realised weather during past 24 hours till 0830 hours IST of today: (details in Annexure I)

❖ Heatwave to severe heat wave conditions prevailed in most parts of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh; in some parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, north Madhya Pradesh; at isolated pockets over northeast Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Jharkhand. Heatwave conditions at isolated pockets over northwest Rajasthan, northwest Madhya Pradesh Gangetic West Bengal & Jammu division.

❖ Warm night to severe warm night conditions observed some parts of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Warm night conditions observed in isolated pockets of Rajasthan and Bihar.

❖ Maximum temperatures were in the range of 44-46°C over most parts of plains of north India and these were above normal by 5-8°C over the region.

❖ The highest Maximum Temperature of 47.6°C was reported at Prayagraj (East Uttar Pradesh) over the country.

❖ Isolated exceptionally heavy rainfall over Meghalaya; Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls occurred at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Bihar; Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Tamil Nadu; heavy rainfall at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema.

❖ Gusty winds/squally winds data reported over the country is attached in Annexure II.

 

Advance of Southwest Monsoon:

❖ The Northern Limit of Monsoon continues to pass through 20.5°N/60°E, 20.5°N/63°E, 20.5°N/70°E, Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/89.5°E, 23°N/89.5°E and Islampur.

❖ Conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Northwest Bay of Bengal, some parts of Gangetic West Bengal, remaining parts of Sub Himalayan West Bengal and some parts of Bihar & Jharkhand during next 3-4 days.

 

Weather Systems and Forecast & Warnings:

❖ A cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Assam in lower tropospheric levels. Strong southwesterly/southerly winds are prevailing from Bay of Bengal to northeast India in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence:

➢ Widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Sub Himalayan West Bengal during next 5 days.

➢ Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh during 18th-21st; Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on 18th, 19th & 22nd with isolated 1 extremely heavy rainfall over Assam & Meghalaya and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh on 18th & 19th and isolated exceptionally heavy rainfall over Meghalaya on 18th June, 2024.

➢ Widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over Sikkim on 18th & 19th and heavy rainfall during 20th-22nd June, 2024.

➢ Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) very likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha during next 5 days.

➢ Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Odisha and Bihar during next 5 days.

❖ A cyclonic circulation lies over Northeast Arabian Sea adjoining Saurashtra in lower and middle levels and another over Westcentral Bay of Bengal adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence:

➢ Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning likely over Gujarat state, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra & Marathwada during next 5 days.

➢ Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Konkan & Goa and ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra during 18th-21st and Gujarat Region on 20th & 21st June, 2024.

➢ Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely over Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep; isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during next 5 days.

➢ Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Kerala & Mahe, Coastal Karnataka during 18th-22nd; Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana on 18th; Tamil Nadu on 22nd and South Interior Karnataka on 18th; 21st; 22nd June, 2024 with possibility of very heavy rainfall over Kerala & Mahe, Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka on 21st & 22nd June.

❖ Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (40-60 kmph) very likely over West Madhya Pradesh and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh during next 5 days. Isolated hailstorm likely over East Madhya Pradesh on 18th & 19th June. Isolated heavy rainfall likely over West Madhya Pradesh today.

❖ A Western Disturbance as a trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies runs roughly along long. 67°E to the north of Lat. 30°N. Under its influence; isolated to scattered light rainfall with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) very likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand during 18th-22nd and over Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan during 18th-20th June, 2024.

❖ Strong surface winds (speed reaching 25-35 kmph) very likely over plains of Northwest India during next 2 days.

 

Maximum temperature forecast for next 5 days:

❖ No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over Northwest India during next 24 hours; fall by about 2°C for subsequent 2 days and rise by 2-3°C thereafter.

❖ Fall by about 2-3°C in maximum temperatures very likely over East India during next 3 days and no significant change thereafter.

❖ Fall by about 2-3°C in maximum temperatures very likely over Central India during next 5 days.

❖ No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over rest parts of the country.

Heat Wave, Hot & Humid Weather and Warm Night warning for next 5 days:

❖ Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions very likely in many/most parts of Uttar Pradesh on 18th & 19th; in some parts on 20th; over Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi on 18th; in isolated/some parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand & Bihar on 18th and decrease in intensity thereafter over above regions.

❖ Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated parts of Jammu-Kashmir, and north Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 18th; north Madhya Pradesh, north Rajasthan on 18th & 19th June, 2024 and abate thereafter.

❖ Warm night to severe warm night conditions very likely in some parts of pockets of Uttar Pradesh and Warm night conditions in isolated/some pockets of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi on 18th & 19th June, 2024.

❖ Hot & Humid weather very likely over Odisha during 18th-20th; Gangetic West Bengal on 18th and Bihar on 20th June, 2024.

Click here to see Annexure

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PK/PSM/AD

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