According to the Cyclone Warning Division/ National Weather Forecasting Centre/Regional Meteorological Centre, New Delhi of the India Meteorological Department (IMD): (AT 08.30 AM)

            The Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 05 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into a Cyclonic Strom “NIVAR” and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 24^th November, 2020 over southwest Bay of Bengal near about 410 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 450 km southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards for next 12 hours and then northwestwards. It is very likely to cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during 25^th November 2020 evening as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph.

Forecast track and intensity are given below:

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity very likely over Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during 24^th to 26^th November and over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema during 25^th to 26^th and Telangana during 26^th to 27^th November, 2020. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall activity also very likely over Tamilnadu & Puducherry (Pudukottai, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Karaikal, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Ariyalur & Perabalu districts during 24^th and Kadalur, Kallakurchi, Puducherry, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Chengalpattu to Ariyalur, Perambalur and Karaikal districts during 25^th) and over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Rayalaseema (Nellore and Chittoor districts) on 25^th & 26^th and over Telangana on 26^th November, 2020.

(ii) Wind warning

• Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph is prevailing over Southwest Bay of Bengal. It would further increase becoming 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over the southwest Bay of Bengal from 25^th November morning for subsequent 18 hours.
• Squally wing speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph is prevailing along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coast and over Gulf of Mannar. It will gradually increase and becomE 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph along & off coastal districts of north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, Puducherry, Villupuram & Chengalpattu districts; 80-90 gusting to 100 kmph very likely over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallaur districts) during forenoon to night of 25^th November, 2020.
• Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely over adjoining  westcentral Bay of Bengal and along & off South Andhra Pradesh (Nellore & Chittoor districts), Gulf of Mannar and along and off districts of south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu during forenoon to night of 25^th November, 2020.

(iii) Sea condition

• Sea condition is high over Southwest Bay of Bengal and rough to very rough along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Andhra Pradesh coasts and over Gulf of Mannar. It would gradually become very high over the southwest Bay of Bengal from  24^th November night.
• The sea condition would be very high over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal and along & off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts and high along and off south Tamil Nadu & south Andhra Pradesh coasts and also over Gulf of Mannar on 25^th November, 2020.

(iv)  Strom Surge Warning

• Tidal wave of about 1m height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry near the place of landfall.

(v)  Damage expected over and Action suggested over coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry and adjoining Andhra Pradesh:

• Major damage to thatched houses/ huts with possibility of roof tops being blown off and unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Damage to power and communication lines.
• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Severe damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
• Major damage to coastal crops.
• Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vi) Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:

• Total suspension of fishing operations.
• Fishermen are advised not to venture into Southwest & adjoining west-central & southeast Bay of       Bengal, Gulf of Mannar and along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during 24-25th November.
• Fishermen out at Sea are advised to return to the coast and avoid the above sea area.
• Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors. Movement in motor boats unsafe.

2. Deep Depression weakened into a Depression over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Somalia

                    The Deep Depression over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Somalia moved west-southwestwards with a speed of about 09 kmph during past 06 hours, weakened into a Depression and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of 24^th November 2020 over the Gulf of Aden and adjoining Somalia near Latitude 11.6°N and Longitude 47.0°E, about 460 km west-northwest of Ras Binnah (Somalia). It is very likely to move nearly west-southwestwards and weaken into a well marked low pressure area during next 12 hours.

(i) Wind warning

Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to prevail over Gulf of Eden and along and off north Somalia coast during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.

 (ii) Sea condition

Sea condition will be rough to very rough over Gulf of Eden along and off north Somalia coast during next 12 hours and improve thereafter.

(iii)  Fishermen Warning

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Gulf of Eden and along and off north Somalia coast during next 12 hours.

Kindly see  Cyclone update

*******

NB/KGS/(IMD Release)