Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation

Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2019-20 and Quarterly Estimates (q4) of Gross Domestic Product, 2019-20

Posted On: 29 MAY 2020 5:45PM by PIB Delhi

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the Provisional Estimates of National Income for the financial year 2019-20, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. These are presented in Statements 1 to 4.

 

2.         Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2019-20, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP are also released. These are presented in Statements 5 to 8. Estimates including growth rates of Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2019-20 released earlier have been revised in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts.

 

3.         In view of the global COVID-19 pandemic and consequent nationwide lockdown measures implemented since March, 2020; the data flow from the economic entities has been impacted. As some of these units are yet to resume operations and owing to the fact that the statutory time-lines for submitting the requisite financial returns have been extended by the Government, these Estimates are based on the available data. Consequently, the Estimates (Quarterly as well as Annual) are likely to undergo revision.

 

 4.        The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income for the year 2019-20 were released on 28th February, 2020. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of Agricultural Production, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and performance of key sectors like, Railways, Transport other than Railways, Communication, Banking, Insurance and Government Revenue Expenditure. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total Tax Revenue used for GDP compilation includes Non-GST Revenue and GST Revenue. For obtaining Taxes on Products at Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes. Early results on the performance of Corporate Sector for April-December 2019 which were used in SAE have been revised on the basis of latest available information. Besides information on indicators like Deposits & Credits, Passenger and Freight Earnings of Railways, Passenger Traffic and Cargo Handled at Airports, Cargo Handled at Major Sea Ports, Sales of Commercial Vehicles etc., available for first 9/10 months of the financial year used in the SAE have been revised with the updated data upto March, 2020.

 

5.        Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2019-20 is now estimated to attain a level of ₹ 145.66 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2018-19 of ₹ 139.81 lakh crore, released on 31st January 2020. The growth in GDP during 2019-20 is estimated at 4.2 percent as compared to 6.1 percent in 2018-19.

 

6.         GDP at Current Prices in the year 2019-20 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 203.40 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimates of ₹ 189.71 lakh crore in 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 7.2 percent as compared to 11.0 percent in 2018-19.

 

7.         The Per Capita Income in real terms (at 2011-12 Prices) during 2019-20 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 94,954 as compared to ₹ 92,085 in the year 2018-19, resulting in growth of 3.1 percent during 2019-20, as against 4.8 per cent in the previous year. The Per Capita Income at current prices during 2019-20 is estimated to be ₹ 134,226, showing a rise of 6.1 percent as compared to 1,26,521 during 2018-19.

 

8.         GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 of 2019-20 is estimated at ₹ 38.04 lakh crore, as against ₹ 36.90 lakh crore in Q4 of 2018-19, showing a growth of 3.1 percent.

 

9.         Changes in the main indicators used in the estimation are listed below:

 

Indicators

Annual

Quarterly

2018-19

2019-20

Q4 2018-19

Q4 2019-20

Production of Coal

7.4

-0.5

6.4

7.0

Production of Crude Oil

-4.2

-5.9

-5.5

-5.7

Production of Cement

13.3

-0.8

11.7

-4.9

Consumption of Steel

7.5

1.3

9.4

-3.9

Sales of Commercial Vehicles

17.6

-28.8

3.8

-42.1

Cargo Handled at Major Sea Ports

2.9

0.9

0.1

0.1

Cargo Handled at Airports

2.5

-9.0

-0.9

-13.6

Passengers Handled at Airports

11.8

-1.0

3.9

-9.5

Railways

 

    (i) Net Tonne Kilometers

6.6

-4.5

5.8

-6.7

    (ii) Passenger Kilometers

1.7

-4.3

1.0

-14.2

Aggregate Bank Deposits

10.0

7.9

67.1

-53.0

Aggregate Bank Credits

13.3

6.1

-1.7

-20.0

LIC Premium - Non-Linked

6.1

11.4

18.2

-11.6

LIC Premium - Linked

-8.4

-10.5

-7.5

-19.3

CPI General Index

3.4

4.8

2.5

6.7

IIP

 

    (i) Mining

2.8

1.7

2.2

4.5

    (ii) Manufacturing

3.8

-1.1

1.4

-5.7

    (iii) Electricity

5.2

0.8

1.5

1.1

    (iv) Metallic Minerals

2.4

14.3

2.2

12.9

Indicators

Annual

Quarterly

2018-19

2019-20

Q4 2018-19

Q4 2019-20

WPI

 

    (i) Food Articles

0.4

8.4

3.9

8.0

    (ii) Minerals

11.4

12.5

10.5

8.7

    (iii) Manufactured Products

3.7

0.3

2.4

0.5

    (iv) All Commodities

4.3

1.7

2.9

2.3

 

10.       Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity, Expenditures on GDP for Provisional Estimates and the four quarters of 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with percent changes and the rates of expenditure components of GDP, are given in Statements 1 to 8.

 

11.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June, 2020 (Q1 of 2020-21) will be on 31.08.2020.

 

 

STATEMENT 1: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2019-20 (at 2011- 12 Prices)

(` crore)

 

S. No.

Item

2017-18

(2nd RE)

2018-19

(1st RE)

2019-20

(PE)

Percentage Change Over Previous Year

2018-19

2019-20

 

Domestic Product

 

 

 

 

1

GVA at Basic Prices

1,20,74,413

1,28,03,128

1,33,01,120

6.0

3.9

2

Net Taxes on Products

11,00,747

11,78,298

12,64,831

7.0

7.3

3

GDP (1+2)

1,31,75,160

1,39,81,426

1,45,65,951

6.1

4.2

4

NDP

1,16,86,409

1,23,72,051

1,28,93,977

5.9

4.2

 

Final Expenditures

 

 

 

 

5

PFCE

73,79,819

79,08,057

83,25,907

7.2

5.3

6

GFCE

13,43,222

14,78,565

16,52,367

10.1

11.8

7

GFCF

40,61,195

44,60,967

43,34,091

9.8

-2.8

8

CIS

2,15,795

2,64,415

2,69,489

22.5

1.9

9

Valuables

1,92,661

1,69,734

1,92,629

-11.9

13.5

10

Exports of Goods and Services

26,01,777

29,22,543

28,17,660

12.3

-3.6

11

Imports of Goods and Services

30,78,132

33,42,777

31,15,388

8.6

-6.8

12

Discrepancies

4,58,823

1,19,923

89,196

 

 

13

GDP

1,31,75,160

1,39,81,426

1,45,65,951

6.1

4.2

 

Rates to GDP

 

 

 

 

 

14

PFCE

56.0

56.6

57.2

 

 

15

GFCE

10.2

10.6

11.3

 

 

16

GFCF

30.8

31.9

29.8

 

 

17

CIS

1.6

1.9

1.9

 

 

18

Valuables

1.5

1.2

1.3

 

 

19

Exports of Goods and Services

19.7

20.9

19.3

 

 

20

Imports of Goods and Services

23.4

23.9

21.4

 

 

21

Discrepancies

3.5

0.9

0.6

 

 

22

GDP

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

 

National Product

 

 

 

 

 

23

GNI

1,30,29,307

1,38,29,068

1,44,05,339

6.1

4.2

24

NNI

1,15,40,556

1,22,19,693

1,27,33,366

5.9

4.2

                  Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption

25

Population* (in million)

1314

1327

1341

1.0

1.1

26

Per Capita GDP ()

1,00,268

1,05,361

1,08,620

5.1

3.1

27

Per Capita GNI ()

99,158

1,04,213

1,07,422

5.1

3.1

28

Per Capita NNI ()

87,828

92,085

94,954

4.8

3.1

29

Per Capita PFCE ()

56,163

59,594

62,087

6.1

4.2

                   

 

*Relates to mid-financial year

RE: Revised Estimates

PE: Provisional Estimates

 

 

STATEMENT 2: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2019-20 (at Current Prices)

(` crore)

S. No.

Item

2017-18

(2nd RE)

2018-19

(1st RE)

2019-20

(PE)

Percentage Change Over Previous Year

 

 

 

2018-19

2019-20

 

 

Domestic Product

 

 

 

 

 

1

GVA at Basic Prices

1,55,13,122

1,71,39,962

1,83,43,237

10.5

7.0

 

2

Net taxes on products

15,85,182

18,31,275

19,96,612

15.5

9.0

 

3

GDP (1+2)

1,70,98,304

1,89,71,237

2,03,39,849

11.0

7.2

 

4

NDP

1,53,34,357

1,69,91,613

1,82,21,249

10.8

7.2

 

 

Final Expenditures

 

 

 

 

 

5

PFCE

1,00,90,759

1,12,54,014

1,22,62,064

11.5

9.0

 

6

GFCE

18,38,117

21,04,235

24,46,579

14.5

16.3

 

7

GFCF

47,99,139

54,93,320

54,72,006

14.5

-0.4

 

8

CIS

2,51,062

3,20,076

3,38,357

27.5

5.7

 

9

Valuables

2,19,322

2,00,184

2,24,006

-8.7

11.9

 

10

Exports of Goods and Services

32,11,521

37,66,294

37,45,473

17.3

-0.6

 

11

Imports of Goods and Services

37,51,389

44,68,166

42,98,950

19.1

-3.8

 

12

Discrepancies

4,39,775

3,01,280

1,50,314

 

 

 

13

GDP

1,70,98,304

1,89,71,237

2,03,39,849

11.0

7.2

 

 

Rates to GDP

 

 

 

 

 

14

PFCE

59.0

59.3

60.3

 

 

 

15

GFCE

10.8

11.1

12.0

 

 

 

16

GFCF

28.1

29.0

26.9

 

 

 

17

CIS

1.5

1.7

1.7

 

 

 

18

Valuables

1.3

1.1

1.1

 

 

 

19

Exports of Goods and Services

18.8

19.9

18.4

 

 

 

20

Imports of Goods and Services

21.9

23.6

21.1

 

 

 

21

Discrepancies

2.6

1.6

0.7

 

 

 

22

GDP

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

 

 

National Product

 

 

 

 

 

 

23

GNI

1,69,13,491

1,87,68,912

2,01,18,353

11.0

7.2

 

24

NNI

1,51,49,545

1,67,89,288

1,79,99,754

10.8

7.2

 

25

GNDI

1,73,19,231

1,92,62,652

2,06,30,319

11.2

7.1

 

26

NNDI

1,55,55,285

1,72,83,028

1,85,11,719

11.1

7.1

 

Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption

 

27

Per Capita GDP ()

1,30,124

1,42,963

1,51,677

9.9

6.1

 

28

Per Capita GNI ()

1,28,718

1,41,439

1,50,025

9.9

6.1

 

29

Per Capita NNI ()

1,15,293

1,26,521

1,34,226

9.7

6.1

 

30

Per Capita GNDI ()

1,31,805

1,45,159

1,53,843

10.1

6.0

 

31

Per Capita PFCE ()

76,794

84,808

91,440

10.4

7.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note: Estimates of Disposable Income are compiled only at current prices.

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 3: Provisional Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity (at 2011-12 prices)       

(` crore)

 

Industry

2017-18

(2nd RE)

2018-19

(1st RE)

2019-20

(PE)

Percentage Change Over Previous Year

2018-19

2019-20

1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

18,28,329

18,72,339

19,48,110

2.4

4.0

2. Mining & Quarrying

3,66,496

3,45,069

3,55,680

-5.8

3.1

3. Manufacturing

21,90,791

23,16,643

23,17,280

5.7

0.03

4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services

2,74,104

2,96,560

3,08,832

8.2

4.1

5. Construction

9,62,009

10,20,314

10,33,276

6.1

1.3

6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

23,09,860

24,88,049

25,77,945

7.7

3.6

7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services

26,09,016

27,86,855

29,15,680

6.8

4.6

8.  Public Administration, Defence  and Other Services

15,33,809

16,77,298

18,44,316

9.4

10.0

 GVA  at  Basic Prices

1,20,74,413

1,28,03,128

1,33,01,120

6.0

3.9

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 4: Provisional Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity (at Current Prices)

(` crore)

 

Industry

2017-18

(2nd RE)

2018-19

(1st RE)

2019-20

(PE)

Percentage Change Over Previous Year

2018-19

2019-20

1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

27,96,908

29,22,846

32,57,443

4.5

11.4

2. Mining & Quarrying

3,57,788

3,89,322

3,93,102

8.8

1.0

3. Manufacturing

25,46,608

27,66,767

27,75,587

8.6

0.3

4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services

4,25,101

4,56,413

4,86,516

7.4

6.6

5. Construction

11,97,931

13,44,279

13,84,895

12.2

3.0

6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

28,12,706

31,42,620

33,16,653

11.7

5.5

7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services

32,06,559

36,22,130

38,42,524

13.0

6.1

8.  Public Administration, Defence  and Other Services

21,69,522

24,95,584

28,86,517

15.0

15.7

 GVA  at  Basic Prices

1,55,13,122

1,71,39,962

1,83,43,237

10.5

7.0

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 5: Quarterly Estimates of GVA at Basic Prices for 2019-20 (at 2011-12 prices)

(` crore)

Industry

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

Percentage Change Over Previous Year

2018-19

2019-20

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

4,11,366

3,46,486

5,77,270

4,93,208

4,27,177

3,55,283

5,88,679

5,01,199

4,39,843

3,67,758

6,09,883

5,30,626

3.8

2.5

2.0

1.6

3.0

3.5

3.6

5.9

2. Mining & Quarrying

95,649

75,002

86,635

1,09,209

88,634

69,723

82,797

1,03,915

92,807

68,978

84,610

1,09,285

-7.3

-7.0

-4.4

-4.8

4.7

-1.1

2.2

5.2

3. Manufacturing

5,07,569

5,48,729

5,32,956

6,01,537

5,61,875

5,79,649

5,60,719

6,14,400

5,78,936

5,76,112

5,56,494

6,05,738

10.7

5.6

5.2

2.1

3.0

-0.6

-0.8

-1.4

4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services

69,504

69,698

66,968

67,935

74,998

76,567

73,338

71,655

81,628

79,525

72,817

74,863

7.9

9.9

9.5

5.5

8.8

3.9

-0.7

4.5

5. Construction

2,34,844

2,26,098

2,43,408

2,57,660

2,49,913

2,37,907

2,59,449

2,73,046

2,62,828

2,44,092

2,59,357

2,67,000

6.4

5.2

6.6

6.0

5.2

2.6

-0.04

-2.2

6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

5,61,803

5,44,822

5,65,597

6,37,636

6,09,330

5,87,337

6,09,595

6,81,786

6,30,860

6,11,609

6,35,724

6,99,751

8.5

7.8

7.8

6.9

3.5

4.1

4.3

2.6

7.  Financial, Real Estate  &  Professional  Services

7,15,262

7,66,707

5,62,903

5,64,147

7,57,850

8,16,260

5,99,505

6,13,241

8,03,322

8,64,974

6,19,229

6,28,155

6.0

6.5

6.5

8.7

6.0

6.0

3.3

2.4

8.  Public Administration, Defence and Other Services

3,56,199

3,85,050

4,00,441

3,92,120

3,87,589

4,19,300

4,32,842

4,37,564

4,17,483

4,65,096

4,80,107

4,81,630

8.8

8.9

8.1

11.6

7.7

10.9

10.9

10.1

GVA  at  Basic Prices

29,52,197

29,62,592

30,36,177

31,23,451

31,57,366

31,42,027

32,06,925

32,96,807

33,07,707

32,78,144

33,18,220

33,97,049

6.9

6.1

5.6

5.6

4.8

4.3

3.5

3.0

 

STATEMENT 6:  Quarterly Estimates of GVA at Basic Prices for 2019-20 (at Current Prices)

(` crore)

Industry

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

Percentage Change Over Previous Year

2018-19

2019-20

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

6,14,682

5,44,703

9,03,485

7,34,038

6,55,799

5,60,416

9,24,273

7,82,358

7,12,222

6,08,227

10,53,034

8,83,959

6.7

2.9

2.3

6.6

8.6

8.5

13.9

13.0

2. Mining & Quarrying

89,447

69,310

86,182

1,12,849

98,202

80,476

97,355

1,13,290

1,04,945

75,826

92,789

1,19,543

9.8

16.1

13.0

0.4

6.9

-5.8

-4.7

5.5

3. Manufacturing

5,83,784

6,33,546

6,20,420

7,08,858

6,64,844

6,92,530

6,73,890

7,35,502

6,94,993

6,87,906

6,64,294

7,28,394

13.9

9.3

8.6

3.8

4.5

-0.7

-1.4

-1.0

4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & other Utility Services

1,06,824

1,07,304

1,03,950

1,07,023

1,13,836

1,18,456

1,13,804

1,10,316

1,24,751

1,22,547

1,15,188

1,24,030

6.6

10.4

9.5

3.1

9.6

3.5

1.2

12.4

5. Construction

2,87,451

2,80,664

3,05,759

3,24,057

3,24,955

3,14,756

3,45,528

3,59,041

3,50,920

3,25,815

3,49,232

3,58,928

13.0

12.1

13.0

10.8

8.0

3.5

1.1

-0.03

6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

6,72,181

6,61,102

6,94,315

7,85,108

7,58,987

7,44,890

7,78,223

8,60,520

8,06,915

7,83,108

8,21,438

9,05,193

12.9

12.7

12.1

9.6

6.3

5.1

5.6

5.2

7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services

8,67,582

9,44,159

6,96,275

6,98,542

9,74,229

10,68,600

7,85,893

7,93,409

10,56,866

11,38,695

8,18,382

8,28,581

12.3

13.2

12.9

13.6

8.5

6.6

4.1

4.4

8.  Public Administration, Defence  and Other Services

4,92,027

5,44,308

5,73,664

5,59,522

5,65,871

6,23,661

6,49,806

6,56,245

6,37,682

7,23,713

7,60,995

7,64,128

15.0

14.6

13.3

17.3

12.7

16.0

17.1

16.4

GVA  at  Basic Prices

37,13,978

37,85,096

39,84,050

40,29,998

41,56,723

42,03,786

43,68,772

44,10,682

44,89,292

44,65,838

46,75,351

47,12,757

11.9

11.1

9.7

9.4

8.0

6.2

7.0

6.8

                                                                         

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 7: Quarterly Estimates of Expenditures on GDP for 2019-20 (at 2011-12 prices)

 

STATEMENT 8: Quarterly Estimates of Expenditures on GDP for 2019-20 (at Current Prices)

 ( crore)

 

 

*******

VRRK/VJ



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