Rainfall over India – Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during July 2024 is most likely to be above normal (>106 % of LPA). During July, normal to above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except many parts of northeast India and some parts of northwest, east and southeast peninsular India where below normal rainfall is likely.

Surface Air Temperature over India – During July 2024, monthly minimum temperatures are most likely to be above-normal over many parts of the country except some parts of northwest and adjoining areas of central India and some pockets of south-eastern peninsular India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely. The maximum temperature is likely to be normal to below normal over many parts of the Northwest India and south peninsular India except West coast. Above normal maximum temperatures are likely over many parts of central India, east and northeast India and along west coast.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) - Currently El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are observed over the equatorial Pacific. The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the equatorial western and central Pacific Ocean, and below-average over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicates that the La Nina conditions are likely to develop during second half of the monsoon season.

At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest climate model forecasts indicate neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season.

IMD will issue the forecast for the rainfall during the second half of the season (August + September 2024) and for the month of August towards the end of July 2024.

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PK/PSM