The Copernicus Climate Change Service report states that the global average surface air temperature during January 2025 was the hottest on record (0.79°C warmer than the 1991-2020) despite the development of La Niña conditions. However, the average temperature in the Indian region was the second highest since 1901 (0.98°C warmer than 1991-2020). The main reason for higher temperatures is global warming, which is closely linked to climate change. Global warming refers to the long-term increase in Earth's average surface temperature due to human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas. This process releases greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which trap heat and cause the planet to warm up.

In general, during the La Niña years, the Indian summer monsoon experiences above-average rainfall, which is beneficial for better crop production. However, currently, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean with above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern and far western Pacific Ocean and below-average SSTs in the central Pacific Ocean. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) and other global model forecasts indicate that neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season of 2025. Thus, no La Niña impact is expected on the Indian monsoon during 2025. IMD will issue the first stage of the seasonal forecast for the 2025 Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall by mid-April.

Various organisations under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) have been conducting regular studies on monsoons and associated rainfall and temperature patterns in the country, including those during the El Niño and La Niña periods. The India Meteorological Department continuously monitors the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes globally, especially in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which have a significant impact on the Indian climate. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) also prepares forecasts based on the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) and issues the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)/ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) bulletin every month (https://www.imdpune.gov.in/cmpg/Product/Enso.php). IMD also issues monthly and seasonal outlooks for rainfall and temperature with monthly updates, which helps to prepare for the impact of El Niño/La Niña-related weather variations. These forecasts are complimented by the extended range forecasts updated every week for the next four weeks. Additionally, the IMD issues agriculture-specific advisories to help farmers prepare for extreme weather events associated with El Niño and La Niña, such as heavy rains or droughts. These advisories are helpful for decision-making in various agriculture operations, such as crop selection, irrigation practices, pest and disease warnings, disaster management, preparedness, etc.

This information was given by Dr. Jitendra Singh, Minister of State (Independent Charge) of the Ministry of Science & Technology and Earth Sciences, in a written reply in the Lok Sabha today.

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