During the last five years, from 2020 to 2024, the prediction for all India Southwest Monsoon Forecast (June-September) was accurate for 80% of the time. The details are given in Annexure-1.

The Ministry has launched the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for the monsoon rainfall in different time scales. This has focused on seasonal (June-September) and extended-range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), with delineation of active/break spells, using high-resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamical models with reasonable skill, as well as short-range forecasts. Through NMM, two state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems were implemented for short-range to medium-range, extended-range, and seasonal forecasts.       

IMD has adopted a new strategy for issuing monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country based on the statistical forecasting system and the newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system. The MME approach uses the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centers, including IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model. IMD issues monthly and seasonal forecasts operationally for rainfall and temperature (including cold and heat waves) throughout the year.

 IMD closely works with various ministries like the Central Water Commission (CWC), National and State Disaster Management Authorities, Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), State Governments, etc., to issue various forecasts and warnings along with updated weather and climate information.

Annexure-1

IMD forecast for All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall for 2020 to 2024:

 

   ***Model error ± 5% of LPA

  Monsoon Rainfall Forecast over Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ)

              ***Model error ±6% of LPA

Prediction for Monsoon Onset over Kerala (MOK)

***Model error ±4 days

This information was given by Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Science & Technology, Dr. Jitendra Singh in a written reply in the Rajya Sabha today.

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NKR/KS

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