Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation

Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2019-20

Posted On: 29 NOV 2019 5:30PM by PIB Delhi

 

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2019-20, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

2.         The details of estimates of GDP for Q2 of 2019-20 are presented below:

I (a)     Estimates at Constant (2011-12) Prices

3.         GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 of 2019-20 is estimated at 35.99 lakh crore, as against 34.43 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 4.5 percent. Quarterly GVA (Basic Price) at Constant (2011-2012) Prices for Q2 of 2019-20 is estimated at 33.16 lakh crore, as against 31.79 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 4.3 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

4.         The Economic Activities which registered growth of over 4.3 percent in Q2 of 2019-20 over Q2 of 2018-19 are ‘Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting’ ‘Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services’ and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services’. The growth in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’, ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’ and ‘Construction’ is estimated to be 2.1 percent, 0.1 percent, (-) 1.0 percent, 3.6 percent and 3.3 percent respectively during this period.

 

5.         Industry Analysis

            The second quarter estimates are based on 1st advance estimates of agricultural production during Kharif season of 2019-20 obtained from the Department of Agriculture, Cooperation & Farmer Welfare (DAC& FW). For Livestock sector, estimates of production of major livestock products (i.e. Milk, Egg, Meat and Wool) obtained from the Department of Animal Husbandry & Dairying and Fish production data obtained from Department of Fisheries have been used.

 

Index of Industrial Production (IIP); monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period July-September 2019-20 have been used. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue. Performance of key sectors like Transport including Railways, Road, Air and Water Transport etc., Communication, Banking and Insurance during the period July-September 2019-20 has been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during July-September 2019-20 based on data received from BSE / NSE has been taken into account. 

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

5.1    Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 2019-20 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector grew by 2.1 percent as compared to growth of 4.9 percent in Q2 2018-19. The crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 43 percent, the livestock products 39 percent and forestry & fisheries 18 percent share of GVA in total GVA of ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector.

 

Mining and Quarrying

5.2.      Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 2019-20 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector grew by 0.1 percent as compared to growth of -2.2 percent in Q2 2018-19.  The key indicators of Mining sector, namely, production of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas and IIP Mining registered growth rates of(-) 10.3 percent, (-) 5.1percent,(-) 2.6 percent and (-)1.2 percent, during Q2 of 2019-20 as compared to 6.2 percent, (-) 4.4 percent, (-) 2.0 percent and 0.9 percent respectively, during Q2 of 2018-19.

Manufacturing

 

5.3   Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 2019-20 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector grew by (-) 1.0 percent as compared to growth of 6.9 percent in Q2 2018-19. The growth of organized sector (which has a share of more than 75 percent in the Manufacturing sector) was estimated from available data of Listed Companies with BSE and NSE.  The Quasi -Corporate and Unorganized segment (which has a share of more than 20 percent in the Manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of Manufacturing. IIP Manufacturing registered growth rate of (-) 0.4percent during Q2 of 2019-20 as compared to 5.6 percent during Q2 of 2018-19.

 

Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services

5.4   Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 2019-20 from ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ sector grew by 3.6 percent as compared to growth of 8.7 percent in Q2 2018-19. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 0.4 percent during Q2 of 2019-20 as compared to 7.5 percent in Q2 of 2018-19.

 

Construction

 

5.5       Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 2019-20 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 3.3 percent as compared to growth of 8.5 percent in Q2 2018-19.  Key indicators of Construction sector, namely, production of Cement and Consumption of finished Steel registered growth rates of 0.3 percent and 3.3 percent respectively, during Q2 of 2019-20 as compared to 12.5 percent, 9.9 percent respectively, in Q2 of 2018-19.

Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

5.6.                        Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 2019-20 from this sector grew by 4.8 percent as compared to growth of 6.9 percent in Q2 2018-19. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the Sales Tax growth. With introduction of GST, Sales Tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on Sales Tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is as explained in the Annex to the press note on estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 released on 30thNovember, 2017. Indicator used for measuring GVA from Hotels and Restaurant sector is the Private Corporate growth in this sector. Among the Other Services sectors, Cargo handled at Major Sea Ports, Cargo handled by the Civil Aviation and passengers handled by the Civil Aviation registered growth rates of 1.4 percent, (-) 8.7 percent and 1.3 percent respectively, during July-September, 2019-20. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of (-) 7.0 percent and (-) 2.0 percent respectively, during Q2 of 2019-20.

 

Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services

5.7       Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 2019-20 from this sector grew by 5.8 percent as compared to growth of 7.0 percent in Q2 2018-19.  Major component of this industry is the Real Estate and Professional Services which has a share of over 75 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for Real Estate, Business Services and Computer Related Activities which are estimated from available data from listed companies. The other indicators of this sector, viz., Aggregate Bank Deposits, and Bank Credits have shown growth rates of 9.4 percent and8.7 percent respectively as on 11th November, 2019.

                                                                  

Public Administration,  Defence and Other Services

5.8       Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 2019-20 from this sector grew by 11.6 percent as   compared to growth of 8.6percent in Q2 2018-19. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government Revenue Expenditure net of Interest Payments excluding Subsidies, grew by 33.9 percent during Q2 of 2019-20 as compared to 22.2 percent in Q2 of 2018-19.

 

(b)  Estimates at Current Prices

6.         GDP at Current Prices in Q2 of 2019-20 is estimated at 49.64 lakh crore, as against 46.79 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 6.1 percent. GVA at Basic Price at Current Prices in Q2 of 2019-20, is estimated at 45.09 lakh crore, as against 42.42 lakh crore in Q2, 2018-19, showing an increase of 6.3 percent.Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ (7.4 percent), ‘Mining and Quarrying’ ( -4.4 percent), ‘Manufacturing’ ( -1.1 percent), ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ (2.3 percent), ‘Construction’ (4.2 percent), 'Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication' (6.1 percent), 'Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services' (6.5 percent), and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services' (17.1 percent).

(c)        Price Indices used as Deflators

7.         The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the groups - Food Articlesand All Commodities, has registered a growth of 7.3 percentand 0.9 percent respectively whereas Mining sector, Manufactured products and Electricity declined by 4.4, 0.1 and 1.2 percent during Q2 of 2019-20over Q2 of 2018-19. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.5 percent during Q2 of 2019-20 as compared to growth of 3.9 percent during Q2 of 2018-19.

II         Estimates of Expenditures on GDP

8.                                    The components of Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, Consumption Expenditure and Capital Formation are measured at Market Prices.  The aggregates are presented in the following paragraphs.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

9.                                    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at 29.42lakh crore in Q2 of 2019-20 as against 27.28 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19.  At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the PFCE is estimated at ₹ 20.27 lakh crore in Q2 of 2019-20 as against ₹ 19.30 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at Current and Constant (2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2019-20 are estimated at 59.3 percent and56.3percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.3 percent and 56.1per cent respectively in Q2 of 2018-19.Growth rates of PFCE at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 7.8 percent and 5.1 percent during Q2 of 2019-20 as compared to 14.4 percent and 9.8 percent respectively during Q2 of 2018-19.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

10.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at 6.92 lakh crore in Q2 of 2019-20 as against 5.82 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19.At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCE is estimated at 4.73lakh crore in Q2 of 2019-20 as against 4.09 lakh crorein Q2 of 2018-19. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at Current and Constant (2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2019-20are estimatedat 13.9 percent and 13.1percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 12.4 percent and11.9 percentrespectively in Q2 of 2018-19.Growth rates of GFCE at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 18.9percent and 15.6 percent respectively during Q2 of 2019-20 as compared to 15.4 percent and 10.9 percent respectively during Q2 of 2018-19.

 

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at Current Prices is estimated at 13.56 lakh crore in Q2 of 2019-20 as against 13.68 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19. At Constant (2011-2012) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at 10.83 lakh crore in Q2 of 2019-20 as against 11.16 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at Current and Constant (2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2019-20 are estimated at27.3percent and30.1percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.2 percent and 32.4 percent, respectively in Q2 of 2018-19. Growth rates of GFCF at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at (-) 0.9 percent and (-) 3.0 percent during Q2 of 2019-20 as compared to 16.2 percent and 11.8 percent during Q2 of 2018-19.

 

12.       Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by kind of Economic Activity and the Expenditures on GDP in Q2 (during July-September) and in H1 (half yearly during April-September) of 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 at Constant (2011-2012) and Current Prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.

 

13.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2019 (Q3 of 2019-20) will be on 28.02.2020.

 

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2019-20

(at 2011-12 Prices)

Industry

(`in crore)

Percentage change

GVA at Basic Price

over previous year

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2018-19

2019-20

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

  1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

404,433

340,906

424,869

357,728

433,547

365,161

5.1

4.9

2.0

2.1

  1. Mining & Quarrying

95,928

74,316

96,308

72,681

98,887

72,776

0.4

-2.2

2.7

0.1

  1. Manufacturing

503,682

545,309

564,815

582,672

568,104

576,560

12.1

6.9

0.6

-1.0

  1. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services

67,876

68,063

72,437

73,955

78,682

76,625

6.7

8.7

8.6

3.6

  1. Construction

242,588

233,778

265,970

253,699

281,262

262,149

9.6

8.5

5.7

3.3

  1. Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication &Services related to Broadcasting

563,038

545,283

606,786

583,123

649,698

611,149

7.8

6.9

7.1

4.8

  1. Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services

728,068

781,351

775,276

836,097

821,198

884,523

6.5

7.0

5.9

5.8

  1. Public Administration, Defence& Other Services

357,203

385,640

383,990

418,792

416,628

467,434

7.5

8.6

8.5

11.6

GVA at Basic Price

2,962,815

2,974,645

3,190,452

3,178,747

3,348,005

3,316,377

7.7

6.9

4.9

4.3

 

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2019-20

(at 2011-12 Prices)

 

Item

(`in crore)

RATES OF GDP (%)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2018-19

2019-20

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

1,783,905

1,757,656

1,914,259

1,929,745

1,974,438

2,027,401

56.1

56.1

55.1

56.3

2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)

363,763

368,596

387,599

408,645

421,893

472,576

11.4

11.9

11.8

13.1

3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

989,620

998,232

1,121,028

1,116,240

1,166,334

1,127,675

32.8

32.4

32.5

31.3

4. Change in Stocks

34,802

37,679

38,245

39,454

39,039

39,137

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

5. Valuables

62,728

46,187

42,303

45,958

40,863

40,854

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.1

6. Exports

633,368

647,213

697,740

729,297

737,544

726,549

20.4

21.2

20.6

20.2

7. Less Imports

777,543

754,113

863,352

926,895

899,991

862,478

25.3

26.9

25.1

24.0

8. Discrepancies

71,895

116,016

76,175

100,295

105,055

27,619

2.2

2.9

2.9

0.8

 GDP

3,162,537

3,217,465

3,413,997

3,442,739

3,585,175

3,599,334

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

 

8.0

7.0

5.0

4.5

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2019-20

(at Current Prices)

 

Industry  

(`in crore)

Percentage change

GVA at Basic Price

over previous year

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2018-19

2019-20

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

  1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

584,658

518,297

624,313

539,889

673,664

579,606

6.8

4.2

7.9

7.4

  1. Mining &Quarrying

88,212

67,532

104,736

82,344

110,485

78,697

18.7

21.9

5.5

-4.4

  1. Manufacturing

581,965

632,480

677,419

705,617

691,088

697,824

16.4

11.6

2.0

-1.1

  1. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services

106,304

106,778

119,704

124,567

130,075

127,466

12.6

16.7

8.7

2.3

  1. Construction

298,669

291,897

342,766

332,671

372,180

346,803

14.8

14.0

8.6

4.2

  1. Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting

675,552

663,613

763,514

747,274

845,119

792,549

13.0

12.6

10.7

6.1

  1. Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services

882,221

961,176

988,653

1,086,318

1,052,224

1,156,850

12.1

13.0

6.4

6.5

  1. Public Administration, Defence & Other Services

493,322

545,035

560,596

622,830

639,239

729,216

13.6

14.3

14.0

17.1

GVA at Basic Price

3,710,903

3,786,809

4,181,701

4,241,509

4,514,074

4,509,011

12.7

12.0

7.9

6.3

 

 

STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2019-20

(at Current Prices)

 

Item

(`in crore)

RATES OF GDP (%)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2018-19

2019-20

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

2,369,633

2,384,867

2,660,328

2,728,197

2,825,329

2,941,622

58.7

58.3

57.7

59.3

2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)

485,089

504,265

541,256

581,902

606,717

692,068

11.9

12.4

12.4

13.9

3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

1,160,598

1,176,660

1,358,745

1,367,789

1,454,690

1,381,971

30.0

29.2

29.7

27.8

4. Change in Stocks

39,809

43,264

45,111

46,989

47,805

47,807

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

5. Valuables

73,678

53,176

45,964

51,240

43,276

45,735

1.0

1.1

0.9

0.9

6. Exports

764,061

792,960

877,750

932,669

955,993

945,784

19.4

19.9

19.5

19.1

7. Less Imports

928,583

914,135

1,073,071

1,170,093

1,153,551

1,106,908

23.7

25.0

23.6

22.3

8. Discrepancies

58,703

134,974

74,602

140,034

112,433

15,471

1.6

3.0

2.3

0.3

GDP

4,022,988

4,176,031

4,530,685

4,678,727

4,892,693

4,963,549

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

 

12.6

12.0

8.0

6.1

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2019-20

(at 2011-12 Prices)

 

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(`in crore)

Percentage change

Industry

GVA at Basic Price in H1

Over previous year H1

 

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2018-19

2019-20

  1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

745,339

782,597

798,708

5.0

2.1

  1. Mining & Quarrying

170,244

168,990

171,663

-0.7

1.6

  1. Manufacturing

1,048,991

1,147,487

1,144,664

9.4

-0.2

  1. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services

135,939

146,392

155,307

7.7

6.1

  1. Construction

476,365

519,669

543,411

9.1

4.6

  1. Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication &Services related to Broadcasting

1,108,320

1,189,909

1,260,846

7.4

6.0

  1. Financial, Real Estate &Professional Services

1,509,419

1,611,373

1,705,721

6.8

5.9

  1. Public Administration, Defence& Other Services

742,842

802,782

884,062

8.1

10.1

GVA at Basic Price

5,937,460

6,369,199

6,664,382

7.3

4.6

 

 

 

STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2019-20

(at 2011-12 Prices)

 

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(`in crore)

Rates of GDP (%)

Item

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1

in H1

 

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2018-19

2019-20

  1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

3,541,561

3,844,005

4,001,840

56.1

55.7

  1. Government Final Consumption Expenditure

732,359

796,244

894,469

11.6

12.4

  1. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

1,987,852

2,237,269

2,294,009

32.6

31.9

4. Change in Stocks

72,481

77,699

78,176

1.1

1.1

5. Valuables

108,915

88,261

81,717

1.3

1.1

6. Exports

1,280,581

1,427,037

1,464,093

20.8

20.4

7. Less Imports

1,531,657

1,790,247

1,762,468

26.1

24.5

8. Discrepancies

187,911

176,470

132,674

2.6

1.8

GDP

6,380,003

6,856,736

7,184,509

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

7.5

4.8

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2019-20

(at Current Prices)

 

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(`in crore)

Percentage change

Industry

GVA at Basic Price in H1

over previous year H1

 

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2018-19

2019-20

  1. Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing

1,102,955

1,164,202

1,253,270

5.6

7.7

  1. Mining &Quarrying

155,745

187,080

189,182

20.1

1.1

  1. Manufacturing

1,214,445

1,383,035

1,388,912

13.9

0.4

  1. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services

213,082

244,271

257,541

14.6

5.4

  1. Construction

590,566

675,437

718,983

14.4

6.4

  1. Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting

1,339,165

1,510,788

1,637,667

12.8

8.4

  1. Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services

1,843,397

2,074,971

2,209,075

12.6

6.5

  1. Public Administration, Defence & Other Services

1,038,357

1,183,426

1,368,455

14.0

15.6

GVA at Basic Price

7,497,712

8,423,209

9,023,085

12.3

7.1

 

 

STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2019-20

(at Current Prices)

 

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(`in crore)

Rates of GDP (%)

Item

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1

in H1

 

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2018-19

2019-20

1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

4,754,500

5,388,525

5,766,950

58.5

58.5

2.Government Final Consumption Expenditure

989,355

1,123,159

1,298,785

12.2

13.2

3.Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

2,337,257

2,726,534

2,836,661

29.6

28.8

4. Change in Stocks

83,073

92,099

95,612

1.0

1.0

5. Valuables

126,853

97,204

89,011

1.1

0.9

6. Exports

1,557,022

1,810,419

1,901,777

19.7

19.3

7. Less Imports

1,842,718

2,243,164

2,260,459

24.4

22.9

8. Discrepancies

193,677

214,636

127,904

2.3

1.3

GDP

8,199,019

9,209,412

9,856,242

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

12.3

7.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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VRRK/AK



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