The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is releasing in this Press Note the Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income, 2023-24; Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for October-December quarter (Q3) of 2023-24 along with its expenditure components and following Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation:

1. First Revised Estimates (FRE) for the financial year 2022-23;

2. Second Revised Estimates (SRE) and Final Estimates for the financial year 2021-22;

3. Third Revised Estimates (TRE) and Final Estimates for the financial year 2020-21

These estimates are released both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts. Further, it has been decided to consider the SRE as Final Estimates. Accordingly, the practice of bringing out TRE would be discontinued henceforth. Therefore, TRE of 2020-21 and SRE of 2021-22 are Final Estimates for the respective years.

2.      Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of ₹172.90 lakh crore, against the FRE of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹160.71 lakh crore. The growth rate of GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.6 percent as compared to growth rate of 7.0 percent in 2022-23.

3.      Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of ₹293.90 lakh crore, against ₹269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.1 percent.

4.      GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹43.72 lakh crore, against ₹40.35 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.4 percent. GDP at Current Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹75.49 lakh crore, as against ₹68.58 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 10.1 percent.

5.      Detailed Notes on: (i) Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income, 2023-24, Quarterly Estimates of GDP for October-December quarter (Q3) of 2023-24 along with its expenditure components are given in Part A and (ii) abovementioned Revised Estimates for financial years 2022-23, 2021-22 and 2020-21 are given in Part B.

  PART A

SECOND ADVANCE ESTIMATES  OF NATIONAL INCOME 2023-24, QUARTERLY ESTIMATES  OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE THIRD QUARTER (OCTOBER-DECEMBER), 2023-24

NOTE ON SECOND ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2023-24, QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE THIRD QUARTER (OCT-DEC), 2023-24

       In this part, the Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income, 2023-24 as well as Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Third quarter (October-December) of 2023-24 (Q3, 2023-24) at both Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices are given.

2.         Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditure Components of GDP for the year 2023-24 besides quarterly estimates and April-December Estimates for the years 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with percent changes are given in Statements 1A to 12A placed at the end of this part of the press note.

3.         Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at ₹172.90 lakh crore, against the First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹160.71 lakh crore. The growth in real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.6 per cent as compared to 7.0 per cent in 2022-23.

4.         Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at ₹293.90 lakh crore, against the FRE of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹269.50 lakh crore. The growth in nominal GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 9.1 per cent as compared to 14.2 per cent in 2022-23.

5.         GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹43.72 lakh crore, against ₹40.35 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.4 percent. GDP at Current Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹75.49 lakh crore, as against ₹68.58 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 10.1 percent.

6.         The Advance Estimates of National Income are indicator-based and are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year (2022-23) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. The First Advance Estimates (FAE) for 2023-24 were based on very limited data and by using Provisional Estimates of 2022-23 as benchmark estimates.

7.         For compilation of SAE 2023-24, the Provisional Estimates of 2022-23 used at the time of FAE have been replaced by First Revised Estimates (FRE) 2022-23 which have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information. Thus, variations in SAE from FAE is attributed to revision of benchmark estimates and additional data available on various indicators like CPI, IIP, Revised Estimates of fiscal data, financial results of listed companies etc. used for compiling the estimates for 2023-24. The quarterly estimates of previous years along with the first and second quarter estimates of 2023-24 released earlier have also undergone revision in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts.

8.         The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) Financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector available for Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2023-24, (iii) Second Advance Estimates of Crop Production for 2023-24, (iv) Production targets as well as summer and rainy season production estimates of Major Livestock Products for 2023-24, (v) Fish Production, (vi) Production/ Consumption of Cement and Steel, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers for Railways, (viii) Passenger and Cargo traffic handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major and Minor Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi) Bank Deposits & Credits, (xii) Accounts of Central & State Governments, etc., available for first 9-10 months of the financial year 2023-24. Year-on-Year growth rates (%) in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure A.

9.         The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST revenue. The Revised Estimates of tax revenue for 2023-24, as available in the Annual Financial Statement of the Central Government for 2024-25, latest available information on the websites of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices.  For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy as available on CGA website and the expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States upto December, 2023 as available on CAG website along with the Centre/ State-wise RE and BE provision for 2023-24. Information on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. from Centre and States for 2023-24 are used for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

10.       Improved data coverage, actual performance of various indicators, actual tax collections and expenditure incurred on subsidies in the following months and revision in input data made by source agencies will have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take these into consideration while interpreting the figures. 

11.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter January-March, 2024 (Q4 2023-24) and Provisional Estimates of National Income for the year 2023-24 will be on 31^st May, 2024.

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Annexure A

 PART B

FIRST REVISED ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION, 2022-23

NOTE ON FIRST REVISED ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION, 2022-23

            In this part, First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2022-23 along with Second Revised Estimates for the financial year 2021-22 and Third Revised Estimates for the financial year 2020-21 (with Base Year 2011-12) are given.

2.         The First Revised Estimates for the year 2022-23 have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of using the benchmark-indicator method employed at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on 31^st May, 2023. The estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other aggregates for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22 have also undergone revisions on account of use of latest available datasets on agricultural production; industrial production (final results of ASI: 2020-21 and 2021-22); government data as available in budget documents (replacing Revised Estimates with actuals for the year 2021-22); comprehensive data available from various source agencies like Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) etc. and additional data from State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics (DES).

3.         The salient features of the revised estimates at aggregate level are as follows.

Gross Domestic Product

4.         Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2022-23 and 2021-22 stands at ₹160.71 lakh crore and ₹150.22 lakh crore, respectively, showing a growth of 7.0 per cent during 2022-23 as compared to growth of 9.7 per cent during 2021-22.

5.         Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2022-23 is estimated at ₹269.50 lakh crore, against ₹235.97 lakh crore for the year 2021-22, showing a growth of 14.2 per cent during 2022-23 as compared to growth of 18.9 per cent during 2021-22.

GVA and its Industry-wise Analysis

6.         At the aggregate level, nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices has increased by 14.0 per cent during 2022-23 compared to growth of 18.8 per cent during 2021-22. Real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12) prices, has increased by 6.7 per cent in 2022-23, compared to 9.4 per cent growth in 2021-22.

7.         The shares of broad sectors of the economy in overall GVA during 2011-12 to 2022-23 and the annual growth rates during these periods are mentioned below:

*: Third Revised and Final Estimates; #: Second Revised and Final Estimates; @: First Revised Estimates

8.         The growth rates of Primary sector (comprising Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fishing and Mining & Quarrying), Secondary sector (comprising Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services, and Construction) and Tertiary sector (Services) have been estimated as 4.4 per cent, 2.1 per cent and 10.0 per cent respectively in 2022-23 as against growth rates of 4.8 per cent, 12.7 per cent and 9.2 per cent respectively in the previous years. The growth in real GVA during 2022-23 is on account of growth in ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’, ‘Construction’, ‘Trade, repair, Hotels and Restaurants’, ‘Transport, Storage and Communication & Services related to Broadcasting’, ‘Financial Services’, ‘Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling & Professional Services’ and ‘Other services’ as may be seen from Statement 4.2B. However, ‘Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’ and ‘Public Administration and Defense’ have witnessed modest growth, and ‘Manufacturing’ sector has slightly contracted, during this period.

Net National Income

9.         Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for the year 2022-23 stands at ₹234.39 lakh crore as against ₹206.53 lakh crore in 2021-22, showing a growth of 13.5 per cent during 2022-23 as compared to growth of 19.7 per cent in the previous year.

Gross National Disposable Income

10.       Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated at ₹273.99 lakh crore for the year 2022-23, while the estimate for the year 2021-22 stands at ₹239.25 lakh crore, showing a growth of 14.5 per cent for year 2022-23 as compared to growth of 18.8 per cent in the year 2021-22.

Saving

11.       Gross Saving during 2022-23 is estimated at ₹81.50 lakh crore against ₹73.63 lakh crore during 2021-22. Share of Non-financial corporations, Financial corporations, General Government and Household sectors in Gross Savings during 2022-23 stands at 37.3%, 9.3%, (-) 7.5% and 60.9% respectively. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for 2022-23 is estimated at 29.7 per cent as against 30.8 per cent for 2021-22.

Capital Formation

12.       Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated at ₹86.78 lakh crore for the year 2022-23 as compared to ₹76.48 lakh crore during 2021-22. The rate of GCF to GDP is 32.2 per cent during 2022-23 as against 32.4 per cent in the 2021-22. The rates of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2019-20 and 2021-22 to 2022-23 have been higher than the rate of saving because of positive net capital flow from RoW.

13.       In terms of the share to the total GFCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is Non-Financial Corporations followed by Household sector, share of which stood at 44.2% and 41.8% respectively in 2022-23.

14.       The rate of GCF to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices was 36.7 per cent in 2021-22 and 34.9 per cent in 2022-23.

Consumption Expenditure

15.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹164.23 lakh crore for the year 2022-23 as against ₹143.83 lakh crore in 2021-22. In relation to GDP, the PFCE to GDP ratio at current prices during 2021-22 and 2022-23 are 61.0 per cent and 60.9 per cent respectively. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ₹87.33 lakh crore and ₹93.24 lakh crore, respectively for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23. The corresponding PFCE to GDP ratio for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23 are 58.1 per cent and 58.0 per cent respectively.

16.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹28.84 lakh crore for the year 2022-23 as against ₹24.72 lakh crore during 2021-22. At constant (2011-12) prices the estimates of GFCE for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23 stand at ₹14.80 lakh crore and ₹16.14 lakh crore respectively.

Per Capita Estimates

17.       Per Capita Income i.e. Per Capita Net National Income at current prices is estimated at ₹1,50,906 and ₹1,69,496 respectively for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23. Per Capita PFCE at current prices, for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23 is estimated at ₹1,05,092 and ₹1,18,755 respectively.

Summary of Revisions in the GDP Estimates

Revision in the estimates of the year 2022-23

18.       The following statement gives the major reasons of variation between the Provisional Estimates (released on 31^st May, 2023) and the First Revised Estimates of GVA for 2022-23.

Reason(s) for revisions in the estimates of the years 2020-21 and 2021-22

19.       The use of latest available data from various agencies has resulted in some changes in both the levels of GVA and growth estimates for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22.

Revisions in Major Aggregates

20.       The level of revisions in the major aggregates at current and constant (2011-12) prices are given in the following table:

Major National Income Aggregates and their % Changes

                                                                                   (₹ in Lakh Crore)

Major reasons for revisions in GVA/GDP estimates are as given below:

Year 2020-21

• Use of updated estimates of production and prices of some crops, livestock products, fish and forestry products from few States and DESs and latest CCS (2020-21) rates of by-products in crop sector.

• Use of updated input rate received from IBM.

• Use of final results of ASI: 2020-21.

• Use of latest reports of few NBFIs/ financial auxiliaries.

• Use of updated information received from state governments and local bodies.

Year 2021-22

• Use of updated production estimates (Final Estimates) of Foodgrains, Commercial and Horticulture crops from Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare in place of 4th Advance and 3rd Advance estimates, respectively.

• Use of updated estimates of production and prices of some crops, livestock products, fish and forestry products from a few States and DESs; and latest CCS (2021-22) rates of by-products in crop sector.

• Use of updated GVA supplied by NDEs for the Electricity sector.

• Use of ASI: 2021-22 data and augmented data for non-financial private corporate sector.

• Use of ‘Actuals’ in place of ‘Revised Estimates’ of different items of expenditure and receipts in the Central & State government budgets.

• Use of updated information on Local Bodies and Autonomous Institutions.

• Use of latest annual reports of Public Sector Enterprises.

• Use of latest data received for Cooperative Banks, Postal Life Insurance (PLI) & Post Office Saving Bank (POSB), Non-Banking Financial Institutions (NBFIs), and Financial Auxiliaries.

Detailed Statements

21.       List of Statements released in part B is given below. More details of the revised estimates, i.e., FRE 2022-23, SRE 2021-22 and TRE 2020-21 are available in Statements 1.1B to 9B of Annexure B, which are given in PDF format of the press note.

1. Statement 1.1B:          Key Aggregates of National Accounts at Current Prices

2. Statement 1.2B:          Key Aggregates of National Accounts at Constant (2011-12) Prices

3. Statement 2B:             Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption

4. Statement 3.1B:          Output by Economic Activity and Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Current Prices

5. Statement 3.2B:          Output by Economic Activity and Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Constant (2011-12) Prices

6. Statement 4.1B:          Gross Value Added by Economic Activity at Current Basic Prices

7. Statement 4.2B:          Gross Value Added by Economic Activity at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices

8. Statement 5B:             Finances for Gross Capital Formation

9. Statement 6.1B:          Gross Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Current Prices

10. Statement 6.2B:          Gross Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Constant (2011-12) Prices

11. Statement 7.1B:          Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Asset & Institutional Sector at Current Prices

12. Statement 7.2B:          Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Asset & Institutional Sector at Constant (2011-12) Prices                   

13. Statement 8.1B:          Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Current Prices

14. Statement 8.2B:          Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Constant (2011-12) Prices

15. Statement 9B:             Institutional Sectors – Key Economic Indicators at Current Prices

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Annexure B

FORMULAE

1. GVA at basic prices (Production Approach) = Output at basic price – Intermediate Consumption

2. GVA at basic prices (Income Approach) = CE + OS/MI + CFC + Production taxes less Production subsidies⁽ⁱ⁾

3. GDP = ∑ GVA at basic prices + Product taxes less Product subsidies⁽ⁱⁱ⁾

4. NDP/NNI = GDP/GNI - CFC

5. GNI = GDP + Net primary income from ROW (Receipts less payments)

6. Primary Incomes = CE + Property and Entrepreneurial Income

7. NNDI =NNI + other current transfers⁽ⁱⁱⁱ⁾ from ROW, net (Receipts less payments)

8. GNDI = NNDI + CFC = GNI + other current transfers⁽ⁱⁱⁱ⁾ from ROW, net (Receipts less payments)

9. Gross Capital Formation^(iv) (Financing Side) = Gross Savings + Net Capital Inflow from ROW

10. GCF (Expenditure Side) = GFCF + CIS + Valuables

11. Gross Disposable Income of Govt. = GFCE + Gross Saving of General Government

12. Gross Disposable Income (GDI) of Households = GNDI – GDI of Govt. – Gross Savings of All Corporations

REMARKS ON THE FORMULAE

1. Production taxes or subsidies are paid or received with relation to production and are independent of the volume of actual production. Some examples are:

Production Taxes - Land Revenues, Stamps & Registration fees and Tax on profession

Production Subsidies - Subsidies to Railways, Subsidies to village and small industries.

2. Product taxes or subsidies are paid or received on per unit of product. Some examples are:

                         Product Taxes- Goods & Services Tax, Excise duties, Sales tax, Service Tax and Import, Export duties

Product Subsidies- Food, Petroleum and fertilizer subsidies.

3. Other Current Transfers refers to current transfers other than the primary incomes.

4. Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at the current as well as the constant prices is estimated by two approaches: – (i) through flow of funds, derived as Gross Saving plus net capital flow from Rest of the World (RoW); and (ii) by the commodity flow approach, derived by the type of assets.