Changes are observed in the rainfall pattern of the country. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has carried out an analysis of observed monsoon rainfall variability and changes of 29 States & Union Territory at State and District levels based on the IMD’s observational data of recent 30 years (1989- 2018) during the Southwest monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) and issued a report on 30 March 2020. The reports on observed rainfall variability and its trend for each State and Union Territory are available in IMD website (https://mausam.imd.gov.in/) under “PUBLICATIONS” as well as in IMD Pune website;    

http://www.imdpune.gov.in/hydrology/rainfall%20variability%20page/rainfall%20trend.html

  The highlights of the report are given below:

• Five states viz., Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Meghalaya and Nagaland have shown significant decreasing trends in southwest monsoon rainfall during the recent 30 years period (1989-2018). 
• The annual rainfall over these five states along with the states of Arunachal Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh also show significant decreasing trends. 
• Other states do not show any significant changes in southwest monsoon rainfall during the same period. 

• Considering district-wise rainfall, there are many districts in the country, which show significant changes in southwest monsoon and annual rainfall during the recent 30 years period (1989-2018).  With regard to the frequency of heavy rainfall days, significant increasing trend is observed over Saurashtra & Kutch, Southeastern parts of Rajasthan, Northern parts of Tamil Nadu, Northern parts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas of Southwest Odisha, many parts of Chhattisgarh, Southwest Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Manipur & Mizoram, Konkan & Goa and Uttarakhand.

    Associated with the climate change due to global warming, temporal and spatial diversity in severe weathers including extremely heavy rainfall have been observed in the country in the recent years in line with increase in the extreme events observed over various other parts of the globe. The recent IPCC climate change report indicates that these trends will continue in future and those are not preventable. However, to forewarn about such events, IMD issues forecast and warning related to severe weather to support disaster management activities and sectorial applications. For this purpose, IMD follows a seamless forecasting strategy. The long-range forecasts (for the whole season) issued are being followed with extended range forecast issued on every Thursday with a validity period of four weeks. To follow up the extended range forecast, IMD issues short to medium range forecast and warnings at 36 meteorological sub-divisions levels daily four times by the National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC), New Delhi valid up to next five days with an outlook for subsequent two days. The short to medium range forecast and warning at district and station level are issued by state level Meteorological Centres (MCs)/Regional Meteorological Centres (RMCs) with a validity of next five days and are updated twice a day. The short to medium range forecast is followed by very short range forecast of severe weather up to three hours (nowcast) for all the districts and 1085 cities and towns. These nowcasts are updated every three hours.

    IMD has implemented Impact Based Forecast (IBF) in the recent past which gives details of what the weather will do rather than what the weather will be. It contains the details of impacts expected from the severe weather elements and guidelines to general public about do's and don'ts while getting exposed to severe weather. These guidelines are finalised in collaboration with National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and is already implemented successfully for cyclone, heat wave, thunderstorm and heavy rainfall.

   While issuing the warning suitable colour code is used to bring out the impact of the severe weather expected and to signal the Disaster Management about the course of action to be taken with respect to impending disaster weather event.  Green color corresponds to no warning hence no action is needed, yellow color corresponds to be watchful and get updated information, orange color to be alert and be prepared to take action whereas red color signals to take action.

   The forecasts and warnings are disseminated to users including disaster managers by e-mail on regular basis. In addition to this, WhatsApp groups are created including disaster managers and IMD officials and forecast & warnings are disseminated through this facility also. The forecast & Warnings are uploaded in social media & website for reference by all concerned. The nowcasts related to Severe Weathers are disseminated through SMS also to the registered users.

     In addition to this, as and when the situation arises, Press Releases are issued by IMD and the same are also disseminated by all the platforms mentioned above.

    IMD has taken various initiatives in recent years for improvement in dissemination of weather forecast and warning services based on latest tools and technologies. In 2020, IMD has launched seven of its services (Current Weather, Nowcast, City Forecast, Rainfall Information, Tourism Forecast, Warnings and Cyclone) with ‘UMANG’ mobile App for use by public. Moreover, in 2020, IMD had developed mobile App ‘MAUSAM’ for weather forecasting, ‘Meghdoot’ for Agromet advisory dissemination and ‘Damini’ for lightning alert.

   This information was given by  Union Minister of Earth Sciences, Shri Kiren Rijiju in a written reply in the Lok Sabha today.

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