Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation

Second advance Estimates of National Income, 2018-19 and Quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter (Oct-Dec), 2018-19

Posted On: 28 FEB 2019 5:30PM by PIB Delhi

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the Second Advance Estimates of National Income at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices for the financial year 2018-19. These are presented in Statements 1- 4.

2.         Quarterly Estimates of GDP for the third quarter October-December (Q3), 2018-19 both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP are also being released. Quarterly estimates of previous years along with the first and second quarter estimates of 2018-19 released earlier have undergone revision in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts. The first three quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2 and Q3. GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2018-19 is estimated at `35.00lakhcrore, as against `32.85lakh crore in Q3 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of6.6percent. GDP growth rates for Q1 and Q2 of 2018-19 at Constant Prices are 8.0percent and 7.0percent respectively. Quarterly estimates for the years 2016-17, 2017-18, and 2018-19 are presented in Statements 5 to 8.

 

3.         GDP growth rates for2018-19 and Q1, Q2, Q3 of 2018-19 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices are given below:

 

Growth Rates of GDP

 

Constant Prices  (2011-12)

Current Prices

Annual 2018-19 (Second Advance)

7.0

11.5

Q12018-19 (April-June)

8.0

12.6

Q2 2018-19 (July-September)

7.0

11.9

Q3 2018-19 (October-December)

6.6

11.0

 

4.         The Second Advance Estimates of GDP have been released in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts. The approach for compiling the advance estimates is based on Benchmark-Indicator method. The Sector-wise estimates are obtained by extrapolation of indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of first 9 months of the financial year,

(ii) financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate Sector available upto quarter ending December, 2018 (ii) Second Advance Estimates of Crop Production, (iii) Accounts of Central & State Governments, information on indicators likeDeposits & Credits, Passenger and Freight earnings of Railways, Passengers and Cargo handled by Civil Aviation, Cargo handled at Major Sea Ports, Sales of Commercial Vehicles, etc., available for first 9/10 months of the financial year. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total Tax Revenue used for GDP compilation include Non-GST Revenue and GST Revenue. For compiling Taxes on Products at Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes. Annual forecast of indicators which are available for first 9/10 months is based on regression using seasonal dummies to account for seasonal fluctuations. Some indicators like IIP have been compiled by dividing the cumulative value for the first 9 months of the current financial year by average of ratio of cumulative value of9 months to the annual value of past years.

 

I           SECOND ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2018-19

 

  1. ESTIMATES AT CONSTANT (2011-12) PRICES

 

Gross Domestic Product

 

5.        Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year2018-19is likely to attain a level of  `141.00lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2017-18 of `131.80 lakh crore, released on 31st January 2019. The growth in GDP during 2018-19 is estimated at 7.0percent as compared to the growth rate of 7.2percent in 2017-18.

 

Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices

 

6.         Real GVA, i.e,GVA at Basic Constant Prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from `121.04lakh crore in 2017-18 to `129.26lakh crore in 2018-19. Anticipated growth of real GVA at Basic Prices in 2018-19 is 6.8percentas against 6.9percent in 2017-18.

 

7.        The sectors which are likely to register growth rate of over 7.0percent are ‘Construction’,  ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services’,‘Manufacturing’, ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ and 'Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services’. The growth in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’and ‘Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting’is estimated to be 2.7percent, 1.2percent and6.8percent respectively.

 

8.  Industry analysis

Agriculture

 

8.1.      GVA at Basic Prices for 2018-19 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector is estimated to grow by 2.7percent as compared to growth of 5.0 percent in 2017-18. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the Second Advance Estimates of production of Crops for 2018-19, furnished by the Department of Agriculture, Cooperation&Farmers Welfare (DAC& FW).In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry,Dairying & Fisheries (DADF), Ministry of Agriculture &Farmers Welfare has been used.

 

Mining and Quarrying

 

8.2.      The growth in the GVA at Basic Prices for 2018-19 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector is estimated to be 1.2percent as compared to growth of5.1percentin 2017-18. The key indicators of Mining sector, namely, Production of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas registered growth rates of 7.8percent, (-)3.7percent, (-) 0.2percent during April-December,2018-19 as compared to 1.5percent, (-)0.4percent and 3.4percent during April-December,2017-18. IIP mining grew by 3.1percent in April-December,2018-19 as against2.8percent in April-December,2017-18.  The private corporate sector growth in the Mining sector was estimated using the latest available information on major Listed Companies during first nine months of the financial year 2018-19.

 

Manufacturing

 

8.3       The growth in the GVA at Basic Prices for 2018-19 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector is estimated to be 8.1percent as compared to growth of 5.9percent in 2017-18.  The Private Corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 75 percent in the Manufacturing sector) was estimated from available data of Listed Companies with BSE and NSE.The Quasi - Corporate and Unorganized segment (which has a share of over 20 percent in the Manufacturing sector)has been estimated using IIP of Manufacturing.The Advance Estimates of IIP for the current year at 2-digit level is used toextrapolate the previous year’s value added estimates at 2-digit level, separately for the Quasi -Corporate and Household sectors.IIP from Manufacturing sector registered a growth rateof 4.7percent during April-December 2018-19.The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the manufactured products registered a growth of 4.1percent during April-December,2018-19 as compared to 2.6percent during April-December, 2017-18.

 

Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services

 

8.4       GVA at Basic Prices for 2018-19 from ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ sector is estimated to grow by 8.0percent as compared togrowth of 8.6percent in2017-18. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 6.4percent during April-December, 2018-19 as compared to growth of 5.1percent during April-December, 2017-18.

 

Construction

 

8.5      GVA at Basic Prices for 2018-19 from ‘Construction’ sector is estimated to grow by 8.9percent as compared to growth of 5.6percent in 2017-18. Key indicators of Construction sector, namely, Production of Cement and Consumption of finished Steel registered growth rates of 13.9percent and 8.4percent, respectively, during April-December, 2018-19 as compared to 2.4percent and 7.5percent respectively, during April-December 2017-18.

Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

 

8.6.      GVA at Basic Prices for 2018-19 from this sector is estimated to grow by 6.8percent as compared to growth of 7.8percent in 2017-18. GVA from Trade sector is estimated using an index of turnover based on Sales tax. With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on sales tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is as explained in the Annexure to the press note on estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 released on 30th November, 2017. Indicator used for measuring GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of 6.9 per cent and 1.9percent respectively during April-December 2018-19. In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major sea ports registered growth rates of 14.5 percent, 3.8 percent and 4.1percent, respectively, during April-December of 2018-19. Sales of commercial vehicles registered 25.9percent growth during April-December of 2018-19.

 

Financial,Real Estate and Professional Services

 

8.7       GVA at Basic Prices for 2018-19 from this sector is estimated to grow by 7.3percent as compared to growth of6.2percentin2017-18. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 72.0 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which wereestimated from latest available information on listed companies for thefirst nine months of 2018-19. As per available information as on 10thFebruary,2019, key indicators of banking sector viz. aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 8.9percent and 13.9percent, respectively.

 

Public Administration, Defence and Other Services

 

8.8      GVA at Basic Prices for 2018-19 from this sector is estimated to grow by 8.5percent as compared to growth of 11.9percent in 2017-18. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government Revenue Expenditure Net of Interest Payments and Subsidies grew by 9.2percent during April-December, 2018-19 as compared to 16.7percent in April-December, 2017-18.

 

Per Capita Income

 

9.         The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 Prices) during 2018-19 is likely to attain a level of`92,718as compared to `87,623 for the year 2017-18. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.8percent during 2018-19, as against5.7 per cent in the previous year.

 

10.     Price indices used as deflators

 

             The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the groupsFood Articles, Minerals, Manufactured Products and all commodities, has risen by (-) 0.8percent, 9.0percent, 4.1percent and 4.8percent, respectively during April-December,2018-19. The Consumer Price Index has shown a rise of 3.7percent during April-December,2018-19.

 

B.      ESTIMATES AT CURRENT PRICES

 

Gross Domestic Product

 

11.       GDP is derived by adding Taxes on Products Net of Subsidies on products to GVA at Basic Prices. GDP at Current Prices in the year 2018-19 is likely to attain a level of `190.54lakh crore, as against `170.95 lakh crorein2017-18showing a growth rate of 11.5percent.

 

National Income

 

12.       The nominal Net National Income (NNI), also known as National Income (at Current Prices) is likely to be `168.76 lakh crore during 2018-19, as against `151.28 lakh crore for the year 2017-18. In terms of growth rates, the Net National Income registered a growth rate of 11.6percent in 2018-19 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 11.3percent.

 

Per Capita Income

 

13.       The Per Capita Net National Income during 2018-19 is estimated to be `126,699 showing a rise of 10.2 percent as compared to `1,14,958 during 2017-18.

 

IIANNUALESTIMATES OFFINAL EXPENDITURES OFGDP, 2018-19

 

14.       Along with the Second AdvanceEstimates of GVA at Basic Prices by economic activity, the Second AdvanceEstimates of Expenditures of the GDP at Current and Constant (2011-12) Prices are also released. These estimates have been compiled using the data from the same sources as those used for compiling GVA estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on Merchandise Trade in respect of Imports and Exports, Balance of Payments, and Expenditure of Central and State Government. As various components of Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, Consumption Expenditure and Capital Formation, are normally measured at Market Prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of Market Prices only.

 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

 

15.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at `113.33lakh crore in 2018-19 as against `100.83 lakh crore in 2017-18. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the PFCE is estimated at `80.33lakh crore in 2018-19 as against`74.17 lakh crore in 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at Current and Constant (2011-12) Prices during 2018-19 are estimated at 59.5per cent and 57.0percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.0 per cent and 56.3 per cent, respectively in 2017-18.

 

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

 

16.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at `21.31 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against `18.86 lakh crore in 2017-18. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `15.01 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against `13.79 lakh crore in 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at Current and Constant (2011-12) Prices during 2018-19 are estimated at 11.2percent and 10.6percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.0 percent and 10.5percent, respectively in 2017-18.

 

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

17.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at Current Prices is estimated at `55.02 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against `48.97 lakh crore in 2017-18. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at `45.50 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against `41.37 lakh crore in 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at Current and Constant (2011-12) prices during 2018-19 are estimated at 28.9percent and 32.3percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 28.6percent and 31.4percent, respectively in 2017-18. The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 12.4percent at Current Prices and 10.0percent at Constant Prices during 2018-19.

 

18.       Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures of GDP for the years 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19, at constant (2011-12) and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

 

IIIQUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE THIRD QUARTER (OCTOBER-DECEMBER)OF2018-19

 

(a) Estimates at Constant (2011-12) Prices

19.       The first three quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2 and Q3. GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2018-19 is estimated at `35.00lakhcrore, as against `32.85lakh crore in Q3 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of6.6percent. GVA at Basic Prices at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2018-19 is estimated at `32.31lakhcrore, as against `30.39lakh crore in Q3 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 6.3percent.

20.       Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’(2.7percent), ‘Mining and Quarrying’ (1.3percent), ‘Manufacturing’ (6.7percent), ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ (8.2percent) ‘Construction’ (9.6percent), ‘Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting' (6.9percent), 'Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services' (7.3Percent), and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services' (7.6percent).

21.       The estimated growth in the IIP index of Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity are 2.8percent, 3.4 percent and 6.8 percent respectively, in Q3 of 2018-19.

 

22.       The key indicators of Railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 5.6 percent and 2.6percent, respectively in Q3 of 2018-19.In the Transport and Communication sectors, the Sale of Commercial Vehicles and Cargo Handled at Major Ports, registered growth rates of 6.7percent and 2.1percent respectively in Q3 of 2018-19.

 

23.       The PFCE and GFCF at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2018-19are estimated at`20.67lakh crore and `11.58lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2018-19is59.1percent and33.1percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of58.1percent and31.9percent, respectively in Q3 of 2017-18.GFCE at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2018-19is estimated at`3.41lakh croreas against `3.20lakh crore in Q3 of 2017-18. The rate of GFCE as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2018-19 is9.7percent and is same in Q3 of2017-18.

 

(b) Estimates at Current Prices

 

24.       GDPat Current Prices in Q3 of 2018-19 is estimated at `47.86lakhcrore, as against `43.11lakh crore in Q3 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 11.0percent.GVA at current Basic Prices in Q3 of 2018-19is estimated at `43.76lakh crore, as against `39.65lakhcrore in Q3 of 2017-18, showing a growth of 10.4percent.

 

25.       The PFCE and GFCF at Current Prices in Q3 of 2018-19are estimated at `29.35lakh crore and `14.10lakhcrore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at Current Prices as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2018-19are estimated at61.3percent and29.5percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of60.9percent and28.9percent, respectively in Q3 of 2017-18.GFCE at Current Prices in Q3 of 2018-19is estimated at`4.88lakh croreas against `4.45lakh crore in Q3 of 2017-18. The rate of GFCE as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2018-19 is10.2percent as against the corresponding rateof10.3percent in Q3 of 2017-18.

 

26.       Estimates of Gross/Net National IncomeandPer Capita Income along with GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity, expenditures on GDP  for Second Advance Estimates, third quarter (Q3) & April-December estimates for the years 2015-16, 2017-18 and 2018-19 at Constant (2011-12) And Current Prices, are given in Statements 1 to 12.

 

27.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter January-March, 2019 (Q4 of 2018-19) and Provisional Annual Estimates for the year 2018-19 will be on 31.05.2019.

 

 

STATEMENT 1: SecondAdvance Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2018-19
 

( At 2011- 12 Prices)

  

(` crore)

      

(

Item

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

Percentage change over previous year

S.No

 

( 2ndRE )

(1st RE)

(2ndAE)

2017-18

2018-19

 

Domestic Product

 

 

 

 

1

GVA at Basic Prices

11,318,972

12,104,165

12,925,787

6.9

6.8

2

Net Taxes on Products

979,355

1,075,693

1,174,331

9.8

9.2

3

GDP (1+2)

12,298,327

13,179,857

14,100,119

7.2

7.0

4

NDP

10,917,373

11,676,896

12,495,137

7.0

7.0

 

Final Expenditures

 

 

 

 

 

5

PFCE

6,904,085

7,417,489

8,032,934

7.4

8.3

6

GFCE

1,199,041

1,378,563

1,500,879

15.0

8.9

7

GFCF

3,783,778

4,136,572

4,549,644

9.3

10.0

8

CIS

124,087

150,417

158,405

21.2

5.3

9

Valuables

150,784

192,120

193,310

27.4

0.6

10

Exports of Goods and Services

2,490,437

2,607,310

2,957,878

4.7

13.4

11

Less Imports of Goods and Services

2,621,586

3,083,560

3,567,138

17.6

15.7

12

Discrepancies

267,700

380,947

274,206

 

 

13

GDP

12,298,327

13,179,857

14,100,119

7.2

7.0

 

RATES TO GDP

 

 

 

 

 

14

PFCE

56.1

56.3

57.0

 

 

15

GFCE

9.7

10.5

10.6

 

 

            16

GFCF

30.8

31.4

32.3

 

 

17

CIS

1.0

1.1

1.1

 

 

18

Valuables

1.2

1.5

1.4

 

 

19

Exports of Goods and Services

20.3

19.8

21.0

 

 

20

Less Imports of Goods and Services

21.3

23.4

25.3

 

 

21

Discrepancies

2.2

2.9

1.9

 

 

22

GDP

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

23

GNI

12,153,754

13,034,121

13,954,956

7.2

7.1

24

NNI

10,772,800

11,531,159

12,349,975

7.0

7.1

 Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption

 

 

25

Population* (in million)

1299

1316

1332

1.3

1.2

26

Per Capita GDP (`)

94,675

100,151

105,857

5.8

5.7

27

Per Capita GNI (`)

93,562

99,043

104,767

5.9

5.8

28

Per Capita NNI(`)

82,931

87,623

92,718

5.7

5.8

29

Per Capita PFCE(`)

53,149

56,364

60,307

6.0

7.0

* Relates to mid-financial year

          
                           

RE: Revised estimates; AE: Advance Estimates

 

STATEMENT 2: Second Advance Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2018-19
 

( At Current Prices)

  

(` crore)

      

S.No

Item

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

Percentage change over previous year
 

 

( 2ndRE )

(1st RE)

(2ndAE)

2017-18

2018-19
 

Domestic Product

 

 

 

  

1

GVA at basic prices

13,935,917

15,482,715

17,241,154

11.1

11.4

2

Net taxes on products

1,426,469

1,612,290

1,812,813

13.0

12.4

3

GDP (1+2)

15,362,386

17,095,005

19,053,967

11.3

11.5

4

NDP

13,771,661

15,313,286

17,069,891

11.2

11.5
 

Final Expenditures

 

 

 

 

 

5

PFCE

9,115,769

10,083,121

11,333,406

10.6

12.4

6

GFCE

1,583,312

1,885,613

2,130,997

19.1

13.0

7

GFCF

4,335,014

4,896,813

5,501,695

13.0

12.4

8

CIS

139,714

173,890

188,503

24.5

8.4

9

Valuables

166,559

218,706

213,238

31.3

-2.5

10

Exports of Goods and Services

2,948,772

3,210,547

3,752,789

8.9

16.9

11

Less Imports of Goods and Services

3,220,591

3,758,519

4,464,374

16.7

18.8

12

Discrepancies

293,838

384,835

397,713

 

 

13

GDP

15,362,386

17,095,005

19,053,967

11.3

11.5
 

RATES TO GDP

 

 

 

 

 

14

PFCE

59.3

59.0

59.5

 

 

15

GFCE

10.3

11.0

11.2

 

 

16

GFCF

28.2

28.6

28.9

 

 

17

CIS

0.9

1.0

1.0

 

 

18

Valuables

1.1

1.3

1.1

 

 

19

Exports of Goods and Services

19.2

18.8

19.7

 

 

20

Less Imports of Goods and Services

21.0

22.0

23.4

 

 

21

Discrepancies

1.9

2.3

2.1

 

 

22

GDP

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

23

GNI

15,185,986

16,910,192

18,860,341

11.4

11.5

24

NNI

13,595,261

15,128,474

16,876,265

11.3

11.6

25

GNDI

15,565,424

17,315,933

19,281,745

11.2

11.4

26

NNDI

13,974,699

15,534,214

17,297,670

11.2

11.4

 Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption

 

  

 

27

Per Capita GDP(`)

118,263

129,901

143,048

9.8

10.1

28

Per Capita GNI (`)

116,905

128,497

141,594

9.9

10.2

29

Per Capita NNI (`)

104,659

114,958

126,699

9.8

10.2

30

Per Capita GNDI(`)

119,826

131,580

144,758

9.8

10.0

31

Per Capita PFCE(`)

70,175

76,619

85,086

9.2

11.0
             

* Relates to mid-financial year

          
                     

RE: Revised estimates AE: Advance Estimates

 

STATEMENT 3: Second Advance Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity

(At 2011-12 prices)

(` crore)

    

Industry

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

Percentage change over previous year

( 2nd RE )

(1st RE)

( 2ndAE)

2017-18

2018-19

1. Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing

1,717,467

1,803,039

1,852,580

5.0

2.7

2. Mining &Quarrying

348,089

365,677

370,237

5.1

1.2

3. Manufacturing

2,055,043

2,176,923

2,353,618

5.9

8.1

4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply& other Utility Services

246,491

267,720

289,193

8.6

8.0

5. Construction

917,754

969,194

1,055,917

5.6

8.9

6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

2,145,415

2,312,214

2,469,571

7.8

6.8

7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services

2,494,444

2,649,146

2,841,805

6.2

7.3

8.  Public Administration, Defence  and other Services

1,394,269

1,560,252

1,692,866

11.9

8.5

 GVA  at  Basic Price

11,318,972

12,104,165

12,925,787

6.9

6.8
               

RE: Revised estimates AE: Advance Estimates

 

STATEMENT 4: Second advance Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity

(At Current Prices)

(` crore)

    

Industry

2016-17

( 2nd RE )

2017-18

(1st RE)

2018-19

( 2ndAE)

Percentage change over previous year
     

2017-18

2018-19

1. Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing

2,496,358

2,670,147

2,755,992

7.0

3.2

2. Mining &Quarrying

321,872

351,058

418,517

9.1

19.2

3. Manufacturing

2,335,068

2,542,089

2,856,313

8.9

12.4

4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply& other Utility Services

353,468

423,089

488,633

19.7

15.5

5. Construction

1,082,466

1,213,628

1,382,558

12.1

13.9

6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

2,538,268

2,823,263

3,155,424

11.2

11.8

7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services

2,911,901

3,252,789

3,666,728

11.7

12.7

8.  Public Administration, Defence  and other Services

1,896,516

2,206,652

2,516,989

16.4

14.1

 GVA  at  Basic Price

13,935,917

15,482,715

17,241,154

11.1

11.4
             

 

RE: Revised estimates AE: Advance Estimates

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 5: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES FOR OCTOBER-DECEMBER (Q3) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12  Prices)

 

GVA  AT BASIC PRICES (`crore)

PER CENTAGE CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS YEAR

Industry

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

 

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

1. Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing

388,288

326,299

546,003

404,433

340,906

570,993

424,950

355,064

586,240

4.2

4.5

4.6

5.1

4.2

2.7

2. Mining &Quarrying

93,238

67,051

82,339

95,928

74,316

86,013

96,299

72,762

87,110

2.9

10.8

4.5

0.4

-2.1

1.3

3. Manufacturing

512,135

509,041

487,612

503,682

545,309

529,731

566,354

583,192

565,017

-1.7

7.1

8.6

12.4

6.9

6.7

4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply& other Utility Services

62,527

62,353

60,849

67,876

68,063

65,424

72,437

73,955

70,809

8.6

9.2

7.5

6.7

8.7

8.2

5. Construction

234,904

223,170

232,734

242,588

233,778

251,259

265,854

253,588

275,448

3.3

4.8

8.0

9.6

8.5

9.6

6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

519,889

503,628

522,541

563,038

545,283

565,916

606,813

583,093

604,790

8.3

8.3

8.3

7.8

6.9

6.9

7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services

675,506

745,385

532,745

728,068

781,351

569,221

776,386

837,341

610,620

7.8

4.8

6.8

6.6

7.2

7.3

8.  Public Administration, Defence  and other Services

311,047

354,332

367,202

357,203

385,640

400,845

384,282

419,129

431,427

14.8

8.8

9.2

7.6

8.7

7.6

 GVA  at  Basic Price

2,797,534

2,791,258

2,832,025

2,962,815

2,974,645

3,039,403

3,193,375

3,178,123

3,231,460

5.9

6.6

7.3

7.8

6.8

6.3

 

STATEMENT 6: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES FOR (Q3) OCTOBER-DECEMBER OF 2018-19

(at Current Prices)

 

GVA AT BASIC PRICES (`crore)

PER CENTAGE CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS YEAR

Industry

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

 

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

1. Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing

568,840

483,020

793,380

584,658

518,297

865,702

624,585

535,744

883,399

2.8

7.3

9.1

6.8

3.4

2.0

2. Mining &Quarrying

80,839

59,455

75,644

88,212

67,532

84,138

104,261

82,069

100,463

9.1

13.6

11.2

18.2

21.5

19.4

3. Manufacturing

576,352

576,182

555,263

581,965

632,480

619,490

679,088

706,062

687,925

1.0

9.8

11.6

16.7

11.6

11.0

4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply& other Utility Services

87,864

88,651

88,270

106,304

106,778

103,482

119,708

124,570

121,369

21.0

20.4

17.2

12.6

16.7

17.3

5. Construction

273,974

262,894

274,735

298,669

291,897

317,470

342,622

332,532

363,893

9.0

11.0

15.6

14.7

13.9

14.6

6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

607,001

594,468

619,004

675,552

663,613

696,658

762,521

746,254

779,502

11.3

11.6

12.5

12.9

12.5

11.9

7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services

783,118

874,168

619,227

882,221

961,176

703,530

989,433

1,087,225

792,340

12.7

10.0

13.6

12.2

13.1

12.6

8.  Public Administration, Defence  and other Services

416,607

483,529

502,757

493,322

545,035

574,126

560,586

622,854

647,160

18.4

12.7

14.2

13.6

14.3

12.7

 GVA  at  Basic Price

3,394,596

3,422,366

3,528,280

3,710,903

3,786,809

3,964,596

4,182,804

4,237,311

4,376,051

9.3

10.6

12.4

12.7

11.9

10.4

 

STATEMENT 7: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF FINAL EXPENDITURES OF GDP FOR OCTOBER-DECEMBER (Q3) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12  Prices)

 

 

GDP  (`crore)

Rates of GDP (%)

 

Item

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

 

 

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

 
  1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

1,619,837

1,658,550

1,816,084

1,783,905

1,757,656

1,907,486

1,907,366

1,929,859

2,067,140

56.4

54.6

58.1

55.8

56.1

59.1

 
  1. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)

298,297

342,449

289,159

363,763

368,596

320,263

387,559

408,579

341,032

11.5

11.5

9.7

11.3

11.9

9.7

 
  1. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

952,663

913,049

932,243

989,620

998,232

1,046,238

1,105,237

1,099,832

1,157,543

31.3

31.0

31.8

32.4

32.0

33.1

 
  1. Change in Stocks(CIS)

30,924

30,737

29,443

34,802

37,679

36,602

38,117

39,251

38,027

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

 
  1. Valuables

34,934

37,056

35,534

62,728

46,187

39,401

46,543

50,564

44,645

2.0

1.4

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.3

 
  1. Exports

603,591

611,799

619,436

633,368

647,213

652,539

704,323

736,985

748,099

20.0

20.1

19.9

20.6

21.4

21.4

 
  1. Less Imports

627,436

655,953

679,745

777,543

754,113

787,035

861,167

915,260

902,884

24.6

23.4

24.0

25.2

26.6

25.8

 
  1. Discrepancies

71,008

75,803

8,271

71,895

116,016

69,476

88,306

91,468

6,559

2.3

3.6

2.1

2.6

2.7

0.2

 

      GDP

2,983,818

3,013,489

3,050,425

3,162,537

3,217,465

3,284,971

3,416,286

3,441,277

3,500,162

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

 

 

6.0

6.8

7.7

8.0

7.0

6.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 8:  QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF FINAL EXPENDITURES OF GDP FOR OCTOBER-DECEMBER (Q3) OF 2018-19

(at Current Prices)

 

GDP (`crore)

Rates of GDP (%)

Item

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

 

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3
  1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

2,112,215

2,195,324

2,404,903

2,369,633

2,384,867

2,623,498

2,650,063

2,727,648

2,935,053

58.9

57.1

60.9

58.5

58.4

61.3
  1. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)

388,225

454,163

383,973

485,089

504,265

444,841

541,256

581,867

488,076

12.1

12.1

10.3

11.9

12.4

10.2
  1. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

1,085,094

1,044,220

1,069,666

1,160,598

1,176,660

1,247,205

1,321,199

1,330,197

1,410,052

28.8

28.2

28.9

29.2

28.5

29.5
  1. Change in Stocks(CIS)

34,485

34,475

33,223

39,809

43,264

42,376

44,817

46,597

45,400

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9
  1. Valuables

38,263

44,343

43,035

73,678

53,176

49,288

50,611

56,421

56,460

1.8

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2
  1. Exports

704,795

720,886

743,329

764,061

792,960

821,407

877,750

932,669

965,447

19.0

19.0

19.1

19.4

20.0

20.2
  1. Less Imports

760,292

800,974

847,860

928,583

914,135

983,113

1,059,083

1,141,640

1,151,465

23.1

21.9

22.8

23.4

24.4

24.1
  1. Discrepancies

31,383

57,605

34,892

58,703

134,974

65,028

104,826

140,441

36,689

1.5

3.2

1.5

2.3

3.0

0.8

      GDP

3,634,168

3,750,041

3,865,162

4,022,988

4,176,031

4,310,530

4,531,438

4,674,199

4,785,712

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

 

 

10.7

11.4

11.5

12.6

11.9

11.0

 

 

 

 

 

 
                                                                 

 

 

STATEMENT 9: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN

APRIL-DECEMBER OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12 Prices)

(`crore)

Industry

2016-17

( 2nd RE )

2017-18

(1st RE)

2018-19

( 2ndAE)

Percentage change

Over previous year

2017-18

2018-19

1. Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing

1,260,591

1,316,333

1,366,253

4.4

3.8

2. Mining &Quarrying

242,628

256,257

256,172

5.6

0.0

3. Manufacturing

1,508,788

1,578,722

1,714,563

4.6

8.6

4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply& other Utility Services

185,729

201,363

217,201

8.4

7.9

5. Construction

690,807

727,624

794,890

5.3

9.2

6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

1,546,058

1,674,236

1,794,695

8.3

7.2

7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services

1,953,636

2,078,640

2,224,346

6.4

7.0

8.  Public Administration, Defence  and other Services

1,032,581

1,143,687

1,234,838

10.8

8.0

 GVA  at  Basic Price

8,420,817

8,976,863

9,602,958

6.6

7.0

RE: Revised estimates; AE: Advance Estimates

 

STATEMENT 10: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN

APRIL-DECEMBER OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12 Prices)

(`crore)

Item

2016-17

( 2nd RE )

2017-18

(1st RE)

2018-19

( 2ndAE)

Rates of GDP at (%)

2017-18

2018-19
  1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure

5,094,471

5,449,047

5,904,365

56.4

57.0
  1. Government Final Consumption Expenditure

929,905

1,052,622

1,137,171

10.9

11.0
  1. Gross Fixed Capital Formation

2,797,955

3,034,090

3,362,612

31.4

32.5
  1. Change in Stocks

91,104

109,084

115,395

1.1

1.1
  1. Valuables

107,524

148,316

141,753

1.5

1.4
  1. Exports

1,834,825

1,933,120

2,189,407

20.0

21.1
  1. Less Imports

1,963,133

2,318,691

2,679,311

24.0

25.9
  1. Discrepancies

155,082

257,386

186,333

2.7

1.8

      GDP

9,047,733

9,664,974

10,357,725

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

6.8

7.2

 

 

RE: Revised estimates; AE: Advance Estimates

 

STATEMENT 11: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICE IN

APRIL-DECEMBER OF 2018-19

(atCurrent Prices)

(`crore)

Industry

2016-17

( 2nd RE )

2017-18

(1st RE)

2018-19

( 2ndAE)

Percentage change

over previous year

2017-18

2018-19

1. Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing

1,845,239

1,968,657

2,043,728

6.7

3.8

2. Mining &Quarrying

215,938

239,883

286,793

11.1

19.6

3. Manufacturing

1,707,797

1,833,935

2,073,075

7.4

13.0

4. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply& other Utility Services

264,784

316,564

365,647

19.6

15.5

5. Construction

811,604

908,036

1,039,047

11.9

14.4

6. Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

1,820,473

2,035,823

2,288,277

11.8

12.4

7.  Financial,  Real Estate  &  Professional  Services

2,276,514

2,546,926

2,868,998

11.9

12.6

8.  Public Administration, Defence  and other Services

1,402,893

1,612,483

1,830,601

14.9

13.5

 GVA  at  Basic Price

10,345,242

11,462,308

12,796,166

10.8

11.6

 

RE: Revised estimates; AE: Advance Estimates

 

STATEMENT 12: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP

IN APRIL-DECEMBER OF 2018-19

(at Current Prices)

(` crore)

 

Item

2016-17

( 2nd RE )

2017-18

(1st RE)

2018-19

( 2ndAE)

Rates of GDP at (%)

2017-18

2018-19
  1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure

6,712,442

7,377,998

8,312,765

59.0

59.4
  1. Government Final Consumption Expenditure

1,226,361

1,434,196

1,611,199

11.5

11.5
  1. Gross Fixed Capital Formation

3,198,980

3,584,462

4,061,447

28.7

29.0
  1. Change in Stocks

102,182

125,449

136,813

1.0

1.0
  1. Valuables

125,641

176,142

163,493

1.4

1.2
  1. Exports

2,169,010

2,378,429

2,775,866

19.0

19.8
  1. Less Imports

2,409,126

2,825,831

3,352,189

22.6

24.0
  1. Discrepancies

123,880

258,704

281,956

2.1

2.0

      GDP

11,249,371

12,509,549

13,991,349

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

11.2

11.8

 

 

 

RE: Revised estimates; AE: Advance Estimates

*****

AKT/VJ



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