The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme
Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for
the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2015-16, both at constant (2011-12)
and current prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of
expenditure components of the GDP.
2.
The details of the estimates GDP for Q2, 2015-16 are presented below.
I
ESTIMATES OF
GVA BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(a) At constant (2011-2012)
prices
3.
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q2 of
2015-16 is estimated at `27.57 lakh crore, as
against `25.66 lakh crore in Q2 of
2014-15, showing a growth rate of 7.4 percent. Quarterly GVA at Basic
Price at constant (2011-12) prices for Q2 of 2015-16 is estimated at `25.80 lakh crore, as against `24.02 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15, showing a
growth rate of 7.4 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
4.
The economic activities which registered growth of over 7.0 percent in Q2 of
2015-16 over Q2 of 2014-15 are ‘trade, hotels and transport & communication
and services related to broadcasting’, 'financial, insurance, real estate and
professional services' and ‘manufacturing’. The growth in the ‘agriculture,
forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply
& other utility services, ‘construction’ and 'public administration,
defence and other services’ is estimated to be 2.2 per cent, 3.2 percent,
6.7 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively, during this
period.
5.
Industry analysis
The second quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Kharif
season of 2015-16 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of
Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC), abridged
financial results of listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of
Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure
maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government
expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor general of India (CAG) for
the period July-September 2015-16. Performance of key indicators of
sectors like transport including railways, road, air
and water transport etc., communication, banking and insurance during the
period July -September 2015-16 have been taken into account while compiling the
estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during July-September, 2015-16
based on data received from BSE/NSE have been taken into account.
Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses,
Profit before tax and depreciation of listed companies deflated by appropriate
price indices has been used to extrapolate the corporate sector estimates of
the same quarter of the previous year.
Agriculture,
forestry and fishing
5.1
Quarterly GVA at basic
prices for Q2 2015-16 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by
2.2 percent as compared to growth of 2.1 percent in Q2 2014-15. According
to the information furnished by the Department
of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has
been used in compiling the estimate
of GVA from agriculture in Q2 of 2015-16, the production of
cereals, oilseeds and pulses registered growth rates of (-)1.8 percent,
8.5 percent and (-)1.1 percent respectively during the Kharif
season of agriculture year 2015-16. Around 51.0 percent of GVA of this
sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which
registered a combined growth of above 6 percent in Q2 of 2015-16.
Mining
and quarrying
5.2. Quarterly GVA at
basic prices for Q2 2015-16 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector grew by 3.2
percent as compared to growth of 1.4 percent in Q2 2014-15. As per the
available information, private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as
estimated for major listed companies at current prices is 5.4 percent in Q2 of
2015-16. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal,
crude oil and natural gas and IIP mining registered growth rates of 0.9 per
cent, 1.7 percent, 0.5 percent and 2.7 percent, during Q2 of 2015-16 as compared
to 8.8 percent, (-)2.4 percent, (-)7.9 percent and 0.5 percent in Q2 of
2014-15.
Manufacturing
5.3
Quarterly GVA at basic
prices for Q2 2015-16 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 9.3 percent as
compared to growth of 7.9 percent in Q2 2014-15. The private corporate sector
growth (which has a share of around 65 percent in the manufacturing sector) as
estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE is 8.1
percent at current prices during Q2 of 2015-16 and hence the growth of this
sector at constant price is 9.3 percent. The quasi corporate and unorganized
segment (which include individual proprietorship and partnerships and khadi
& village Industries has a share of around 26 percent in the manufacturing
sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP manufacturing
registered growth rates of 4.6 percent during Q2 of 2015-16 as compared to 0.4
percent in Q2 of 2014-15.
Electricity,
Gas, water supply and other utility services
5.4
Quarterly GVA at basic
prices for Q2 2015-16 from ‘Electricity ,Gas, water supply and
other utility services’ sector grew by 6.7 percent as compared to
growth of 8.7 percent in Q2 2014-15. The key indicator of this sector,
namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 6.8 percent during Q2 of
2015-16 as compared to 9.4 percent in Q2 of 2014-15.
Construction
5.5 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2
2015-16 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 2.6 percent as compared to growth of
8.7 percent in Q2 2014-15. Key indicators of construction sector, namely,
production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates
of 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent respectively during Q2 of 2015-16.The growth in
the unaccounted construction which has a share of 12.0 percent in total
construction sector is estimated to grow above 10.0 percent.
Trade, hotels and Transport & communication and
services related to broadcasting
5.6.
Quarterly GVA at basic
prices for Q2 2015-16 from this sector grew by 10.6 percent as compared to
growth of 8.9 percent in Q2 2014-15. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from
Trade sector is the sales tax growth. As per the available monthly data
on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection grew by 6.1
percent during Q2 of 2015-16, which at constant prices is estimated at 11.1
percent. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways,
namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth
rate of (-) 2.9 per cent and 1.1 percent respectively during Q2 of 2015-16.
In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil
aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major ports
registered growth rates of 17.0 percent, 3.5 percent and 3.9 percent,
respectively, during Q2 of 2015-16. Sales of commercial vehicles registered
10.7 percent growth during Q2 of 2015-16 over Q2 of 2014-15.
Financial,
insurance, real estate and professional services
5.7
Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 2015-16 from this sector grew by 9.7
percent as compared to growth of 13.5 percent in Q2 2014-15. Major
component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has
a share of 75.0 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly
growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related
activities which as estimated from available data from listed companies at
current prices is 3.6 percent and 15.6 percent, respectively, during Q2 of
2015-16. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits and
bank credits have shown growth rates of 10.7 per cent, and 9.1 per cent,
respectively as on September 2015 as against growth of 12.4 percent and
9.6 percent respectively as on September 2014.
Public
administration and defence and other services
5.8
Quarterly GVA at basic
prices for Q2 2015-16 from this sector grew by 4.7 percent as compared to
growth of 7.1 percent in Q2 2014-15. The key indicator of this sector namely,
union government expenditure net of interest payments grew by 1.2 percent
during Q2 of 2015-16 as compared to 6.4 percent in Q2 of 2014-15.
(b) At current prices
6. GDP is derived by adding
taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at
current prices in Q2 of 2015-16 is estimated at `32.66 lakh crore, as against `30.80 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15,
showing a growth rate of 6.0 percent. GVA at basic price at current prices in
Q2 of 2015-16, is estimated at `30.26 lakh crore, as against `28.76 lakh crore in Q2, 2014-15, showing an increase of 5.2 per cent.
(c) Price
indices used as deflators
7.
The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles,
minerals, manufactured products and all commodities, has declined by 0.5 per
cent, 31.6 percent, 1.8 per cent, and 4.5 percent, respectively whereas
electricity registered a growth of 4.5 percent during Q2 of 2015-16 over Q2 of
2014-15. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 3.9 per cent during Q2 of
2015-16 over Q2 of 2014-15.
II
ESTIMATES OF
EXPENDITURES ON
GDP
8.
The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely,
consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market
prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore,
are in terms of market prices.
Private
Final
Consumption
Expenditure
9.
Private Final
Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `19.60 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `18.09 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15. At constant (2011-12) prices,
the PFCE is estimated at `15.41 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `14.43 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at
current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2015-16 are estimated at
60.0 per cent and 55.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding
rates of 58.7 per cent and 56.2 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2014-15. Growth rates of Private Final Consumption
Expenditure at current and constant prices are estimated at 8.3 percent and 6.8
percent during Q2, 2015-16 as compared to 13.6 percent and 7.1 percent
respectively during Q2 2014-15.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
10.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated
at `4.52 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `4.23 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15. At constant (2011-2012)
prices, the GFCE is estimated at `3.56 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as
against `3.38 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15. In terms of
GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant(2011-2012) prices during Q2 of
2015-16 are estimated at 13.8 per cent and 12.9 per cent, respectively, as
against the corresponding rate of 13.7 per cent and 13.2 percent each in Q2 of
2014-15. Growth rates of Government Final Consumption Expenditure at current and
constant prices are estimated at 6.9 percent and 5.2 percent respectively during Q2, 2015-16 as compared to 15.6 percent
and 8.9 percent respectively
during Q2 2014-15.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
11.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `9.24 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `8.89 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014-15. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the
GFCF is estimated at `8.31 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16 as against `7.78 lakh crore in Q2 of 2014- 15. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at
current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2015-16 are estimated at
28.3 per cent and 30.1 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding
rates of 28.9 per cent and 30.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2014-15. Growth rates of Gross Fixed Capital Formation at
current and constant prices are estimated at 3.9
percent and 6.8 percent during Q2 2015-16 as compared to 7.7
percent and 3.8 percent during Q2 2014-15.
12.
Estimates of GVA at basic price by kind of economic activity and the
Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2013-14, 2014-15 and
2015-16 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to
8. Quarterly estimates of GDP for 2013-14 and 2014-15 at current and constant
2011-12 prices as per press release dated 29.05.2015 are given in Annexures I
& II.
13.
The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December,
2015 (Q3 of 2015-16) will be on 08.02.2016.
STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2015-16
(at 2011-12
prices)
|
Industry
|
(` in crore)
|
Percentage change
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
over previous year
|
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing
|
350052
|
286299
|
359258
|
292316
|
366124
|
298692
|
2.6
|
2.1
|
1.9
|
2.2
|
|
2.mining&quarrying
|
67555
|
61282
|
70488
|
62168
|
73289
|
64127
|
4.3
|
1.4
|
4.0
|
3.2
|
|
3.manufacturing
|
419403
|
404289
|
454620
|
436281
|
487134
|
476843
|
8.4
|
7.9
|
7.2
|
9.3
|
|
4.electricity,gas,watersupply
& other utility services
|
52498
|
53168
|
57794
|
57786
|
59657
|
61659
|
10.1
|
8.7
|
3.2
|
6.7
|
|
5.construction
|
182284
|
179756
|
194168
|
195396
|
207580
|
200473
|
6.5
|
8.7
|
6.9
|
2.6
|
|
6. trade, hotel, transport,
communication & services related to broadcasting
|
406716
|
418670
|
456125
|
455995
|
514487
|
504425
|
12.1
|
8.9
|
12.8
|
10.6
|
|
7.financial, insurance,
real estate & professional services
|
480626
|
509235
|
525122
|
578016
|
571740
|
634152
|
9.3
|
13.5
|
8.9
|
9.7
|
|
8.Public administration, defence& other services
|
284255
|
302759
|
292195
|
324231
|
300044
|
339329
|
2.8
|
7.1
|
2.7
|
4.7
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
2243389
|
2215458
|
2409770
|
2402189
|
2580056
|
2579701
|
7.4
|
8.4
|
7.1
|
7.4
|
STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2015-16
(at 2011-12
prices)
|
Item
|
(` in crore)
|
RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%)
|
|
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
|
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure
(PFCE)
|
1397414
|
1347339
|
1483613
|
1443019
|
1592806
|
1540972
|
58.5
|
56.2
|
58.7
|
55.9
|
|
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure
(GFCE)
|
301793
|
310658
|
306488
|
338349
|
310018
|
356058
|
12.1
|
13.2
|
11.4
|
12.9
|
|
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
|
708280
|
749396
|
769880
|
777597
|
807225
|
830687
|
30.4
|
30.3
|
29.8
|
30.1
|
|
4. Change in Stocks
|
40016
|
38574
|
41969
|
40276
|
44076
|
42945
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
|
5. Valuables
|
32,902
|
33,987
|
41528
|
36999
|
49589
|
53,592
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
|
6. Exports
|
546989
|
641533
|
596944
|
628508
|
558269
|
598744
|
23.6
|
24.5
|
20.6
|
21.7
|
|
7. Less Imports
|
655135
|
683004
|
631494
|
690643
|
597371
|
671194
|
24.9
|
26.9
|
22.0
|
24.3
|
|
8. Discrepancies
|
4,164
|
-71,977
|
-74273
|
-7811
|
-51615
|
5,182
|
-2.9
|
-0.3
|
-1.9
|
0.2
|
|
GDP
|
2376424
|
2366505
|
2534654
|
2566294
|
2712998
|
2756985
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)
|
|
|
6.7
|
8.4
|
7.0
|
7.4
|
|
|
|
|
STATEMENT
3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2015-16
(at current
prices)
|
Industry
|
(` in crore)
|
Percentage change
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
over previous year
|
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing
|
400069
|
345321
|
435365
|
370464
|
463796
|
380194
|
8.8
|
7.3
|
6.5
|
2.6
|
|
2.mining&quarrying
|
69626
|
67575
|
76688
|
66578
|
77493
|
65575
|
10.1
|
-1.5
|
1.0
|
-1.5
|
|
3.manufacturing
|
450806
|
438539
|
507591
|
490257
|
540738
|
526413
|
12.6
|
11.8
|
6.5
|
7.4
|
|
4.electricity,gas,watersupply
& other utility services
|
57043
|
60642
|
70369
|
70303
|
73895
|
79359
|
23.4
|
15.9
|
5.0
|
12.9
|
|
5.construction
|
201914
|
206563
|
227760
|
233443
|
237780
|
228665
|
12.8
|
13.0
|
4.4
|
-2.0
|
|
6. trade, hotel, transport,
communication & services related to broadcasting
|
444932
|
475242
|
530808
|
540553
|
585490
|
571538
|
19.3
|
13.7
|
10.3
|
5.7
|
|
7.financial, insurance,
real estate & professional
services
|
535206
|
588624
|
620278
|
696012
|
659453
|
733699
|
15.9
|
18.2
|
6.3
|
5.4
|
|
8.Public administration,
defence& other services
|
320830
|
354829
|
359343
|
408703
|
391400
|
440572
|
12.0
|
15.2
|
8.9
|
7.8
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
2480425
|
2537334
|
2828202
|
2876313
|
3030045
|
3026014
|
14.0
|
13.4
|
7.1
|
5.2
|
STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2015-16
(at current
prices)
|
Item
|
(` in crore)
|
RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%)
|
|
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
|
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
1.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
|
1589308
|
1592766
|
1809840
|
1809471
|
1988737
|
1959625
|
60.7
|
58.7
|
61.3
|
60.0
|
|
2.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
|
340749
|
365961
|
370775
|
422975
|
386365
|
452228
|
12.4
|
13.7
|
11.9
|
13.8
|
|
3.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
|
764938
|
826001
|
868821
|
889306
|
901827
|
923959
|
29.2
|
28.9
|
27.8
|
28.3
|
|
4.
Change in Stocks
|
43931
|
42736
|
47755
|
46124
|
51008
|
48934
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
|
5.
Valuables
|
35721
|
36898
|
43643
|
38882
|
49561
|
53335
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
|
6.
Exports
|
615780
|
746872
|
711138
|
762430
|
668736
|
713183
|
23.9
|
24.8
|
20.6
|
21.8
|
|
7. Less
Imports
|
768014
|
827311
|
780174
|
868242
|
744773
|
830164
|
26.2
|
28.2
|
23.0
|
25.4
|
|
8.
Discrepancies
|
6,362
|
-72,255
|
-91620
|
-20888
|
-58754
|
-54,960
|
-3.1
|
-0.7
|
-1.8
|
-1.7
|
|
GDP
|
2628775
|
2711667
|
2980178
|
3080059
|
3242706
|
3266140
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|
GDP (Percentage change
over previous year)
|
|
|
13.4
|
13.6
|
8.8
|
6.0
|
|
|
|
|
STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES
IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER)
OF 2015-16
(at 2011-12
prices)
|
|
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
|
|
|
(` in crore)
|
Percentage change
|
|
Industry
|
GVA at Basic Price in H1
|
Over previous year H1
|
|
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
|
1. agriculture, forestry
& fishing
|
636351
|
651574
|
664816
|
2.4
|
2.0
|
|
2.mining&quarrying
|
128837
|
132656
|
137416
|
3.0
|
3.6
|
|
3.manufacturing
|
823692
|
890901
|
963977
|
8.2
|
8.2
|
|
4.electricity,gas,watersupply
& other utility services
|
105666
|
115580
|
121316
|
9.4
|
5.0
|
|
5.construction
|
362039
|
389564
|
408054
|
7.6
|
4.7
|
|
6. trade, hotel, transport,
communication & services related to broadcasting
|
825386
|
912121
|
1018912
|
10.5
|
11.7
|
|
7.financial, insurance,
real estate & professional services
|
989861
|
1103138
|
1205893
|
11.4
|
9.3
|
|
8.Public administration,
defence & other services
|
587014
|
616426
|
639373
|
5.0
|
3.7
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
4458847
|
4811959
|
5159757
|
7.9
|
7.2
|
STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER)
OF 2015-16
(at 2011-12
prices)
|
|
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
|
|
|
(`. in crore)
|
Rates of GDP at
market prices (%)
|
|
Item
|
Expenditures of
Gross Domestic Product in H1
|
in H1
|
|
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
|
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
|
2744753
|
2926632
|
3133778
|
57.4
|
57.3
|
|
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure
|
612451
|
644837
|
666076
|
12.6
|
12.2
|
|
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
|
1457675
|
1547477
|
1637912
|
30.3
|
|