Monsoon
season rainfall for the country as a whole so far till 21st August 2012 has
been only to the extent of 85% of its long period average (deficit by 15%) as
against normal monsoon outlook issued on
· 26th
April, 2012 that has kept at 99±5% of long
period average
·
22nd June, 2012 that has kept
at 96±4% of long period average and deficient
monsoon outlook issued on
· 2nd
August 2012 that has kept at < 90% of long period
average
In
addition, the monsoon rainfall outlooks issued for four homogeneous regions of
the country, monthly outlook for the all India monsoon rainfall for the months
of July and August 2012, that are presented below, are also found to be far
below the expected scenario
Region
|
Period
|
In % of long term average
|
Issued on 22nd June
|
Issued on 2nd August
|
Actual Rainfall
verification (data from 1st June to 21st August)
|
Northwest India
|
June to September
|
93 ± 8
|
|
75
|
Central India
|
June to September
|
96 ± 8
|
|
90
|
Northeast India
|
June to September
|
99 ± 8
|
|
85
|
South Peninsula
|
June to September
|
95 ± 8
|
|
82
|
All India
|
July
|
98 ± 9
|
|
87
|
All India
|
August
|
96 ± 9
|
96 ± 9
|
95
|
The deficiency to certain
extent is attributed to the delayed onset and advance of monsoon over various
parts of the country (in a range of 1-2 weeks). The lower frequency of the
formation of principal rain bearing cyclonic weather systems (lows and
depressions) over the Indian seas of Bay of Bengal and Arabian Seas during the
current season (as against the average frequency of about 6-7, only one low
pressure area formed so far) is seen to be the main contributing factor for the
deficit rainfall distribution observed over the country. Detailed study on the
above seasonal scale monsoon circulation anomalies and associated
characteristics are monitored closely to examine their impacts on the ensuing
rainfall during the remaining period of August and September, 2012.
The India
Meteorological Department (IMD) has so far been using a suite of statistical
models for prediction of seasonal monsoon rainfall over India. Such a mechanism
is prevalent due to non-availability of a suitable coupled dynamical
ocean-atmospheric model with a proven performance of capturing the realistic
monsoon rainfall variability over India.
We are examining the performance of coupled ocean-atmospheric models of
USA and UK towards their suitability for seasonal monsoon rainfall predictions
over India so as to enhance their capabilities under the National Monsoon
Mission.
IMD operates a dedicated weather and climate
monitoring, detection and warning services useful for various sectors of
economy. Skill of different types of IMD products served by various offices of
the department across the nation is presented below:
1.
Average accuracy of short range forecast in recent past is of the order
of 70-95%.
2.
Average accuracy of aviation forecast is about 77%.
3.
The accuracy in 24 hours
forecasting of cyclone over the north Indian Ocean has increased at the rate of
about 7.3 Km per year and the landfall forecast error has decreased at the rate
of about 33 Km per year during 2003-2011.
4.
IMD’s onset of southwest monsoon forecast over Kerala has been found
correct (within forecast limit) since 2005.
5.
Accuracy of LRF for seasonal rainfall was about 50% during the period
2007-11.
6.
Skill of district level rainfall forecast in 75-85% in monsoon season and
more than 85% in non-monsoon season.
Weather being intrinsically variable,
its forecast assessment always have a margin of error and the endeavour of IMD has always been to reduce this margin of
error through the use of improved observations and advanced models. It is to mentioned that global weather centre’s also could not
predict this years monsoon rainfall deficiency realised so far over India during 2012.
Ministry of Agriculture/Commissionarates
of Agriculture in various states carry out weekly review of the current
rainfall scenario and outlook for the coming week generated by IMD to assess
the ground scenario in support of various crop specific agricultural
operations (from sowing to harvest)
under the umbrella of Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG). The CWWG also assesses
the likely yields based on the above of various commodities in each of the crop
season that would have bearing on the prices ultimately. Such exercise is not done on the seasonal
monsoon rainfall outlook.
Expenditure
incurred on IMD during last five years are as under:
All figures are
in Rs. Crores
Year
|
2007-08
|
2008-09
|
2009-10
|
2010-11
|
2011-12
|
Plan
|
40.92
|
190.37
|
206.73
|
165.81
|
144.99
|
Non-Plan
|
139.19
|
198.26
|
253.37
|
248.75
|
249.31
|
Total
|
180.11
|
388.63
|
460.10
|
414.56
|
394.30
|
In
agriculture sector alone there is substantial benefit assessed out of the
service leading to huge savings as per study conducted by National Council for
Applied Economic Research (NCAER) during the period 2009-2010. Considering present
level of outreach of 24% of the farmers from the Integrated Agro-Meteorological
Advisory Service (IAAS), the financial contribution to the GDP comes to Rs.
44321cr. As and when the extent of IAAS outreach increased to 100%, the GP
contribution will rise to about Rs. 184, 671cr.
Considering
the utility and importance of weather and climate based services in all spheres
of life, Government is decided to strengthen the IMD to expand and excel its
services further through implementation of following prioritized programmes during the XII plan:
1. Implementation
of Phase-II of the modernization of IMD aiming to augment of observational,
communication, warning dissemination and modeling infrastructure
2. Establishment
of Airborne Probing of Cyclone (APC) facility to generate the in-situ
observations from the cyclone core environment to improve track, intensity and
landfall forecasting of tropical cyclones.
3. Implementation
of IAAS as Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva (GKMS) for block
level on experimental basis.
4. Implementation
of Monsoon Mission aiming to generate skillful seasonal monsoon rainfall
forecast in different spatial ranges.
5. Implementation
of Himalayan Meteorology aiming to augment of observational network over the
Hills
6. Augmentation
of Aviation Meteorological Services.
The above information was given by the
Minister of Overseas Indian Affairs, Small & Medium Enterprises, Science
& Technology and Earth Sciences, Shri Vayalar Ravi to
the Parliament today.
MC/sk