The Central Statistics
Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released
the revised estimates of national income for the financial year 2011-12 and the
quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter
(January-March) of 2011-12, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.
2. The CSO has also released the
corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the
GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the private final
consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed
capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.
I REVISED
ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2011-12
3.
The advance estimates of national income for the
year 2011-12 were released on 7th February, 2012. These estimates
have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural
production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like,
railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance
and government expenditure.
4.
The salient features of these estimates are
detailed below:
(a) Estimates
at constant (2004-05) prices
Gross
Domestic Product
5.
GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices
in the year 2011-12 is now estimated at Rs. 52,02,514crore (as against Rs.
52,22,027 crore estimated earlier on 7th February, 2012), showing a
growth rate of 6.5 per cent (as against 6.9 per cent in the Advance Estimates)
over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2010-11 of Rs. 48, 85,954 crore,
released on 31th January 2012. The downward revision in the GDP
growth rate is mainly on account of lower performance in ‘manufacturing’ and
‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ than anticipated.
6.
In the agriculture sector, the third advance
estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed an
upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production
of rice (103.41 million Tonnes from 102.75 million Tonnes), wheat (90.23
million Tonnes from 88.31 million Tonnes) and sugarcane (351.19 million Tonnes
from 347.87 million Tonnes) for the year 2011-12.Due to this upward revision in
the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector in 2011-12 has shown
a growth rate of 2.8 per cent, as against the growth rate of 2.5 per cent in
the Advance Estimates.
7. In the case of ‘mining and quarrying’, the
Index of Industrial Production of Mining (IIP-Mining) registered a decline of 2.0
per cent during 2011-12, as against the decline of 2.5 per cent during April-November,
2011, which was used in the Advance Estimates.Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 1.2 per cent
and 1.0 per cent in 2011-12 whereas during April to December, 2011, the growth
rates were (-) 2.7 per cent and 1.9 per cent.The growth of ‘mining &quarrying’
is now estimated at (-) 0.9 per cent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of
(-) 2.2 per cent.
8. Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing
registered a growth rate of 2.9 per cent during 2011-12, as against the growth
rate of 4.1 per cent during April-November, 2011. Due to this, the growth of
‘manufacturing’ sector is now estimated at 2.5 per cent, as against the Advance
Estimate growth of 3.9 per cent.
9. The key indicators of construction
sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth of
6.7 per cent and 5.5 per cent, respectively in 2011-12 as against 5.3 per cent
and 4.4 per cent, respectively during April-December 2011. Consequently, the
growth of the sector is revised upwards to 5.3 per cent as against 4.8 per cent
in the Advance Estimates. The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank
deposits and bank credits have shown higher growth of 17.4 per cent and 19.3
per cent, respectively during 2011-12 over the corresponding period in 2010-11,
as compared to their growth during April-December 2011. The growth of 'financing, insurance, real estate and
business services'sector is revised to 9.6 per cent as compared to 9.1 per cent made
earlier in the Advance estimate.
10. The sector 'community, social and personal
services' has shown a growth of 5.8 per cent in the revised estimates, as
against the growth rate of 5.9 per cent in the advance estimates.
Gross
National Income
11. The
Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is now estimated
at Rs. 51,50,686crore (as compared to Rs. 51,71,538 crore estimated on 7th
February 2012), during 2011-12, as against the previous year’s Quick Estimate
of Rs. 48,33,178 crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is
estimated to have risen by 6.6 per cent during 2011-12, in comparison to the
growth rate of 7.9 per cent in 2010-11.
Per Capita
Net National Income
12. The
per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2011-12
is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 37,851 (as against Rs. 38,005
estimated on 7th February, 2012), as compared to the Quick Estimates
for the year 2010-11 of Rs. 35,993. The growth rate in per capita income is
estimated at 5.2 per cent during 2011-12 as against 6.4 per cent during
2010-11.
(b) Estimates
at current prices
Gross
Domestic Product
13. GDP
at factor cost at current prices in the year 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 82,32,652crore,
showing a growth rate of 15.0 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the
year 2010-11 of Rs. 71,57,412 crore, released on 31th January 2012.
Gross
National Income
14. The
GNI at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at Rs. 81,48,952crore
during 2011-12, as compared to Rs. 70,78,512 crore during 2010-11, showing a
rise of 15.1 per cent.
Per Capita Net National Income
15. The
per capita income at current prices during 2011-12 is estimated to have
attained a level of Rs. 60,603 as compared to the Quick Estimates for the year
2010-11 of Rs. 53,331, showing a rise of 13.6 per cent.
II ANNUAL
ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2011-12
16. Along
with the Revised Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also
releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant
(2004-05) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on
indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP
estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in
respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly accounts of
central government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic
product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally
measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in
terms of market prices only.
Private Final
Consumption Expenditure
17. Private
Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 49,61,587crore
in 2011-12 as against Rs. 43,38,392crore in 2010-11. At constant (2004-05)
prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 32,41,479crore in 2011-12 as against Rs. 30,72,115crore
in 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and
constant (2004-05) prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 56.0 per cent and 57.9
per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 56.5 per cent and
58.7 per cent, respectively in 2010-11.
Government
Final Consumption Expenditure
18. Government
Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 10,35,808crore
in 2011-12 as against Rs. 9,10,719crore in 2010-11. At constant (2004-05)
prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 6,27,620crore in 2011-12 as against Rs. 5,97,154crore
in 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and
constant (2004-05) prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 11.7 per cent and
11.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.9 per
cent and 11.4 per cent, respectively in 2010-11.
Gross Capital
Formation
19. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current
prices is estimated at Rs. 26,14,634crore in 2011-12 as against Rs. 23,31,382crore
in 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs.
17,92,521crore in 2011-12 as against Rs. 16,99,387crore in 2010-11. In terms of
GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05)
prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 29.5 per cent and 32.0 per cent,
respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.4 per cent and 32.5 per
cent, respectively in 2010-11. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at
current prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 3.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent,
respectively.
20. The discrepancies at current and constant
(2004-05) prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 2.0 per cent and 0.3 per cent,
respectively of the GDP at market prices, as against the corresponding rate of
(-) 0.1 per cent and (-)2.5 per cent respectively in 2010-11.
21. Estimates of gross/net national income and
per capita income, along with GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity
and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 at
constant (2004-05) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 6.
III QUARTERLY
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2011-12
(a) Estimates
at constant (2004-05) prices
22. The
four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at
factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in Q4 of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs.
13,95,071crore, as against Rs. 13,24,484crore in Q4 of 2010-11, showing a
growth rate of 5.3 per cent.
23. Growth rates in various sectors are as
follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (1.7 per cent), ‘mining and
quarrying’ (4.3 per cent), ‘manufacturing’ (-0.3 per cent), ‘electricity, gas
and water supply’ (4.9 per cent) ‘construction’ (4.8 per cent), 'trade, hotels,
transport and communication' (7.0 per cent), 'financing, insurance, real estate
and business services' (10.0 per cent), and 'community, social and personal
services' (7.1 per cent).
24. According
to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining,
manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of (-) 0.4 per cent, 0.1 per
cent and 4.5 per cent respectively, in Q4 of 2011-12, as compared to the growth
rates of 1.1per cent, 8.9per cent and 8.1per cent respectively in these sectors
in Q4, 2010-11.
25. Among the services sectors, the key
indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger
kilometers have shown growth rates of 7.0 per cent and 7.9 per cent,
respectively in Q4 of 2011-12, as against the growth rates of 4.1 per cent and
6.0 per cent, in the corresponding period of previous year. In the transport and communication sectors,
the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by
the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered
growth rates of 16 per cent, (-) 7.5 per cent, (-) 13.3 per cent and 2.3 per
cent, respectively in Q4 of 2011-12 over Q4 of 2010-11.
26. The
PFCE and GFCF at constant (2004-05) market prices in Q4 of 2011-12 are
estimated at Rs. 7,98,493crore and Rs. 4,71,969crore, respectively. The rates
of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2011-12 were
52.2 per cent and 30.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding
rates of 51.9 per cent and 31.4 per cent, respectively in Q4 of 2010-11.
(b) Estimates
at current prices
27. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q4
of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 22,32,131crore, as against Rs. 19,92,149crorein
Q4 of 2010-11, showing a growth of 12.0 per cent.
28. The PFCE and GFCF at current market prices
in Q4 of 2011-12 are estimated at Rs. 12,84,516crore and Rs.7,00,853crore,
respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP
at market prices in Q4 of 2011-12 are estimated at 52.5 per cent and 28.6 per
cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 51.7 per cent and
29.4 per cent, respectively in Q4 of 2010-11.
29. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of
economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the four quarters of 2009-10,
2010-11 and 2011-12 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in
Statements 7 to 10.
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