Forecast for the 2012 South-West Monsoon Rainfall
The India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s long range forecasts for the 2012 south-west monsoon season (June to September) are as follows:
(a) Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be Normal (96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA)) with the probability of 47%. The probability (24%) of season rainfall to be below normal (90-96% of LPA) is also higher than its climatological value. However, the probability of season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA) is relatively low (less than 10%).
(b) Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 99% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
IMD will issue update forecast in June 2012 as a part of the second stage forecast. Along with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued. Forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season (August + September) will be issued in July and that for September will be issued in August.
MC/BS