India Releases first Climate Change Assessment for 2030-Jairam Ramesh
India Needs Micro Level Studies to understand Climate Change Issues-Kapil Sibal
Train Two Climate Change Managers at Panchayat Level-Dr Swaminathan
Shri Kapil Sibal, Union Minister for Human Resource Development, Science and Technology and Earth Sciences said, “The impact of global warming in one part of the country is different from the other part of the country. We need micro study and micro assessment which will make difference in lives of people.” Releasing a new major study on climate change science, ‘4X4 Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change’ on key sectors and regions of India here today he further said, “At the release of IPCC report, I suggested to have internal report of India at national and local level. The Ministry undertook a very important study. Let us understand issues of climate and its impact on lives of people.”Responding to the Environment and Forests minister’s suggestion Shri Sibal promised to extend support to organize international conferences and start world class journal.
Earlier Shri Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State for Environment & Forests (I/C), said, “There is no country in the world that is as vulnerable, on so many dimensions, to climate change as India is. This makes it imperative for us to have sound evidence-based assessments on the impact of climate change. I am glad that for the first time such a comprehensive, long term assessment has been undertaken. It is also for the first time that an assessment has been made for the 2030s where as all previous assessments were for the 2070s and beyond. We must continue this focus on rigorous climate change science.”
Giving details about Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment (INCCA ) under the Ministry of Environment & Forests who prepared this report, he said, “This comprehensive network is of 125 research institutions spread across the country with about 250 scientists from various Ministries. The second report in this series, which was released today, looks at the impact of climate change on four sectors of the economy, namely Agriculture, Water, Natural Ecosystems & Biodiversity and Health in four climate sensitive regions of India, namely the Himalayan region, the Western Ghats, the Coastal Area and the North-East Region.”Shri Ramesh suggested to organize international climate change conferences to start a top class international journal of climate science and to develop our own models to study climate and sought help from the Ministry of Science and Technology to expose our younger generation of scientists.
Dr. M S Swaminathan , Member of Parliament, Rajya Sabha, advised to train two ‘Climate Managers’ at lowest institutional level like panchayat whose suggestions will help in sustainable agriculture. The data they provide will have to be involved in this Assessment work by agricultural scientists as the rise in rise of surface, change in rain patterns, temperature etc are affecting agriculture produces.
A major new report released today provides an assessment of impact of climate change in 2030s on four key sectors of the Indian economy, The Report has been prepared by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), a network-based programme that brings together over 120 institutions and over 220 scientists from across the country to undertake scientific assessments of different aspects of climate change.
This is the second major publication of INCCA. The 4x4 Assessment examines the implications of climate change for India in 2030s deduced from a Regional Climate Model Had RM3 (Hadley Centre Regional Model Version 3) run for A1B scenario. It covers climate change projections, sea level rise and extreme events, agriculture, water forests and human health at macro level.
Climate change scenarios for 2030s indicate an overall warming for all the regions in focus. The net increase in annual temperatures in 2030s with respect to 1970s ranges between 1.7oC – 2.2oC, with extreme temperatures increasing by 1-4oC , with maximum increase in coastal regions. The extreme maximum and minimum temperatures are also projected to increase in 2030s with respect to 2070s. All the regions are projected to experience an increase in precipitation. The maximum increase will be in the Himalayan region.
Sea level along the Indian coast is likely to rise in consonance with the global sea level rise in the future. Further projections indicate that the frequency of cyclones is likely to decrease in 2030s, with increase in cyclonic intensity.
On the Agriculture front, irrigated rice in all the regions are likely to gain in yields marginally due to warming as compared to the rainfed crop as the irrigated rice tends to benefit from CO2 fertilization effect will result in reduced yields of Maize and sorghum.. The Coconut productivity is projected to rise in the western coast and reduce in the eastern coastal region. Observations indicate a reduction in apple production in the Himalayan region, which is likely to continue in the future.
In case of marine fisheries some species will gain in yields, as the warming favours their productivity such as Sardines. Some species like Indian mackerel are likely to move upwards to the northern latitudes thus maintaining their yields. With overall warming, the thermal humidity index is projected to increases in all the regions, especially in the months of May and June. This will lead to stress to the livestock and hence reduction in its milk productivity.
Water yield (which is a function of precipitation, total surface run off, evapotranspiration
and soil properties), is projected to increase in the Himalayanregion in 2030s by 5-20%, however, water yields are likely to be variable across the North Eastern region, Western Ghats, and Coastal region. Moderate to extreme drought severity is projected in 2030s for theHimalayan region, as compared to the other regions
Change is projected in forest sector of the vegetation grids and increase in Net Primary Productivity is projected in Western Ghats, North eastern region, Himalayan region, and the
As far as Human health is concerned, Malaria is projected to spread in new areas in Jammu and Kashmir in the Himalayan region. In the North eastern region opportunities for transmission is likely to increase for a longer period. In the Western Ghats,
no change is observed between in 2030s .
Scientists from institutions namely Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune ; National Institute of Oceanography, Goa; Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), New Delhi; Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), New Delhi; G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Education & Development; Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore and Nathinal Institute of Malaria Research (NIMR), Delhi.
The Ministry proposes to bring out a third report of this network in November 2011 which will look at the impact assessment on India’s carbon aerosol (black carbon) programme. The Fourth Report will come out in May 2012 and it will be an Assessment at the level of 16 Agro – climatic Zones.
KP