India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-September2019-20* are estimated to be USD 267.21billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 1.93per cent over the same period last year. Overall imports in April-September 2019-20* are estimated to be USD 312.16billion, exhibiting a negative growth of 3.15per cent over the same period last year.
*Note: Services data pertains to April-August 2019-20 as August 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15th October 2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July and August 2019-20. This data is provisional and subject to revision by RBI. In addition, it may be noted that data for September 2019 is estimated and added to the April-August 2019-20 data of RBI to calculate the Overall Trade Deficit for April-September 2019-20. It will be revised based on RBI’s next press release for September 2019.
I. MERCHANDISE TRADE
EXPORTS (including re-exports)
Exports inSeptember 2019 were USD26.03 billion, as compared to USD27.87billion in September 2018, exhibiting a negative growth of 6.57per cent. In Rupee terms, exports were Rs. 1,85,710.81crore in September 2019, as compared to Rs. 2,01,234.95crore in September 2018, registering a negative growth of 7.71per cent.
In September 2019, major commodity groups of export showing positivegrowth over the corresponding month of last year are
Cumulative value of exports for the period April-September 2019-20 was USD159.57 billion (Rs.11,16,766.77 crore) as against USD163.48billion (Rs.11,21,474.97crore) during the period April-September 2018-19, registering a negative growth of 2.39per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of 0.42per cent in Rupee terms).
Non-petroleum and Non Gems and Jewellery exports in September 2019 were USD19billion, as compared to USD19.84billion in September 2018, exhibiting a negative growth of 4.20per cent. Non-petroleum and Non Gems and Jewellery exports in April-September 2019-20 were USD118.41billion, as compared to USD119.01billion for the corresponding period in 2018-19, a decrease of 0.50per cent.
IMPORTS
Imports in September 2019 were USD36.89 billion (Rs. 2,63,158.22crore), which was 13.85per cent lower in Dollar terms and 14.90per cent lower in Rupee terms over imports of USD42.82billion (Rs.3,09,222.94crore) in September 2018. Cumulative value of imports for the period April-September 2019-20 was USD243.28billion (Rs.17,01,997.27crore), as against USD261.63billion (Rs.17,94,884.20crore) during the period April-September 2018-19, registering a negative growth of 7.01per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of 5.18per cent in Rupee terms).
Major commodity groups of import showing negative growth in September 2019 over the corresponding month of last year are:
CRUDE OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS:
Oil imports inSeptember 2019 were USD8.98 billion (Rs. 64,034.71crore), which was 18.33percentlower in Dollar terms (19.32percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD10.99billion (Rs. 79,373.45crore) in September2018. Oil imports in April-September 2019-20 were USD64.30billion (Rs. 4,49,870.52crore) which was 8.22per cent lower in Dollar terms (6.37percent lower in Rupee terms) compared to USD70.06billion (Rs. 4,80,497.71crore), over the same period last year.
In this connection it is mentioned that the global Brent price ($/bbl) has decreased by 20.96% in September 2019 vis-à-vis September 2018 as per data available from World Bank.
Non-oil imports inSeptember 2019 were estimated at USD27.91billion (Rs. 1,99,123.51 crore) which was 12.30per cent lower in Dollar terms (13.37percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD31.83billion (Rs. 2,29,849.49crore) in September 2018. Non-oil imports in April-September 2019-20 were USD178.97billion (Rs. 12,52,126.75crore) which was 6.57per cent lower in Dollar terms (4.74percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD191.57billion (Rs. 13,14,386.50crore) in April-September2018-19.
Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports wereUSD26.64billion in September 2019, recording a negative growth of 8.88per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold importsof USD 29.23billion in September 2018. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports wereUSD163.17billion in April-September 2019-20, recording a negative growth of 6.18per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold importsUSD 173.93billion in April-September 2018-19.
II. TRADE IN SERVICES
EXPORTS (Receipts)
As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15th October 2019, exports in August2019 were USD 18.24billion (Rs. 1,29,798.22crore) registering a positive growth of 10.40per cent in dollar terms, vis-à-vis August2018. The estimated value of services export for September 2019* is USD 18.11 billion.
IMPORTS (Payments)
As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15th October 2019, imports in August 2019 were USD 12.01billion (Rs. 85,417.53 crore) registering a positive growth of 15.96per cent in dollar terms, vis-à-vis August 2018. The estimated value of service Import for September 2019* is USD 11.88billion.
III.TRADE BALANCE
MERCHANDISE: The trade deficit for September 2019 was estimated at USD10.86billion as against the deficit of USD14.95billion inSeptember 2018.
SERVICES: As per RBI’s Press Release dated 15thOctober 2019, the trade balance in Services (i.e. Net Services export) for August, 2019 is estimated at USD6.24billion.
OVERALL TRADE BALANCE: Taking merchandise and services together, overall trade deficit for April-September 2019-20* is estimated at USD44.95billion as compared to USD60.16billion in April-September 2018-19.
*Note: Services data pertains to April-August 2019-20 as August 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15th October 2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July and August 2019-20. This data is provisional and subject to revision by RBI. In addition, it may be noted that data for September 2019 is estimated and added to the April-August 2019-20 data of RBI to calculate the Overall Trade Deficit for April-September 2019-20. It will be revised based on RBI’s next press release for September 2019.
MERCHANDISE TRADE
|
EXPORTS & IMPORTS : (US $ Billion)
|
|
(PROVISIONAL)
|
|
|
SEPTEMBER
|
APRIL-SEPTEMBER
|
|
EXPORTS(including re-exports)
|
|
|
|
2018-19
|
27.87
|
163.48
|
|
2019-20
|
26.03
|
159.57
|
|
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19
|
-6.57
|
-2.39
|
|
IMPORTS
|
|
|
|
2018-19
|
42.82
|
261.63
|
|
2019-20
|
36.89
|
243.28
|
|
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19
|
-13.85
|
-7.01
|
|
TRADE BALANCE
|
|
|
|
2018-19
|
-14.95
|
-98.15
|
|
2019-20
|
-10.86
|
-83.70
|
|
|
|
|
|
EXPORTS &IMPORTS: (Rs. Crore)
|
|
|
(PROVISIONAL)
|
|
|
|
SEPTEMBER
|
APRIL-SEPTEMBER
|
|
EXPORTS(including re-exports)
|
|
|
|
2018-19
|
2,01,234.95
|
11,21,474.97
|
|
2019-20
|
1,85,710.81
|
11,16,766.77
|
|
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19
|
-7.71
|
-0.42
|
|
IMPORTS
|
|
|
|
2018-19
|
3,09,222.94
|
17,94,884.20
|
|
2019-20
|
2,63,158.22
|
17,01,997.27
|
|
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19
|
-14.90
|
-5.18
|
|
TRADE BALANCE
|
|
|
|
2018-19
|
-1,07,987.98
|
-6,73,409.23
|
|
2019-20
|
-77,447.41
|
-5,85,230.50
|
SERVICES TRADE
|
EXPORTS & IMPORTS (SERVICES) : (US $ Billion)
|
|
(PROVISIONAL)
|
August 2019
|
April-August 2019-20
|
|
EXPORTS (Receipts)
|
18.24
|
89.52
|
|
IMPORTS (Payments)
|
12.01
|
57.00
|
|
TRADE BALANCE
|
6.24
|
32.52
|
|
|
|
|
|
EXPORTS & IMPORTS (SERVICES): (Rs. Crore)
|
|
(PROVISIONAL)
|
August 2019
|
April-August 2019-20
|
|
EXPORTS (Receipts)
|
1,29,798.22
|
6,24,122.42
|
|
IMPORTS (Payments)
|
85,417.53
|
3,97,394.75
|
|
TRADE BALANCE
|
44,380.69
|
2,26,727.68
|
|
Source: RBI Press Release dated 15thOctober 2019
|
|
Note: Services data pertains to April-August 2019-20 as August 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15th October 2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July and August 2019. This has been used along with the estimate of service exports and imports for August 2019, as explained in page-1 for the purpose of this Press note
*Link for Quick Estimates:
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MM