The Central Statistics Office
(CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation have released the
First Advance estimates of national income at constant (2011-12) and current
prices, for the financial year 2016-17. These are
presented in Statements 1-4.
2. The First
Advance Estimates of GDP have been released in accordance with the release
calendar of National Accounts@. The approach for compiling the advance
estimates is based on benchmark-indicator method. The Sector-wise estimates are
obtained by extrapolation of indicators like (i) Index of Industrial
Production of first 7 months of the financial year, (ii) financial performance
of listed companies in the private corporate sector available upto quarter
ending September, 2016 (ii) 1st advance estimates of crop production, (iii) accounts
of Central & State Governments, information on indicators like sales tax,
deposits & credits, passenger and freight earnings of railways, passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, cargo handled at major sea ports, sales of
commercial vehicles etc. available for first 7/8 months of the financial year. The salient features of the estimates are
detailed below:
A.
ESTIMATES
AT CONSTANT (2011-12) PRICES
Gross Domestic Product
3. Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant
(2011-12) prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of `121.55 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for
the year 2015-16 of `113.50 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2016. The growth
in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1 per cent as compared to the growth
rate of 7.6 per cent in 2015-16.
Gross Value
Added (GVA) at Basic Prices
4. Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated
to increase from `104.27 lakh crore in 2015-16 to `111.53
lakh crore in 2016-17. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2016-17
is 7.0 percent against 7.2 percent in 2015-16.
5. The
sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0 percent are, 'public
administration, defence and other services’, 'financial, real estate and
professional services' and ‘manufacturing’.
The growth
in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’,
‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’, ‘construction’ and
‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’
is estimated to be 4.1 per cent, (-)1.8 per cent, 6.5 percent, 2.9 per cent and
6.0 percent respectively.
Agriculture
6. The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’
sector is likely to show a growth of 4.1 per cent in its GVA during 2016-17,
as against the previous year’s growth rate of 1.2 per cent. The GVA estimates
of this sector have been compiled using the First Advance Estimates of
production of major Kharif crops for 2016-17 and targets based on rabi sowings. According to the information furnished by
the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), the production growth of
food grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2016-17 was 8.9
percent as compared to decline of 3.2 percent during the same period in
2015-16. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the
form of targets are available for milk, egg, and wool, from the Department of
Animal Husbandry, Ministry of Agriculture. Around 39.0 percent of GVA of this sector is based on
livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth
of above 3.7 percent in 2016-17.
Mining and quarrying
7. GVA at basic prices for 2016-17
from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector is estimated to decline by 1.8 percent as
compared to growth of 7.4 percent in 2015-16. The key indicators of mining
sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas registered
growth rates of 1.6 per cent, (-)3.5 percent and (-)3.7 percent respectively
during April-November 2016-17 as compared to 4.3 percent, (-)0.4 percent and (-)2.3
percent respectively during April-November, 2015-16. The growth rates observed in these items have
been used to extrapolate the Provisional Estimates of value of output of coal,
crude petroleum, and other major and minor minerals, respectively. IIP of mining registered growth rate of
(-)0.2 percent during April-October, 2016-17 as compared to 2.2 percent during April-October,
2015-16. Advance
Estimate of IIP for 2016-17 of this sector, compiled by dividing the cumulative
index for the first 7 months of the current financial year, by the average of
ratio of 7 months index to the annual index of past years has been used. The private corporate sector growth in the mining sector was estimated
using latest available information on major listed companies during first half
of 2016-17.
Manufacturing
8. GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from
‘manufacturing’ sector is estimated to grow by 7.4
percent as
compared to growth of 9.3 percent in 2015-16. The private corporate sector has
a share of around 72 percent in the manufacturing sector. The private
corporate sector growth in the manufacturing sector was estimated using latest
available information on major listed companies during first half of 2016-17. The quasi corporate and unorganized segment
(which include individual proprietorship and partnerships and khadi &
village Industries has a share of around 23 percent in the manufacturing
sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. The
Advance Estimates of IIP at 2-digit industry groups for the current year are
initially compiled by dividing the cumulative index for the 7 months of the
current year, by the average of ratio of 7 months index to the annual index of
past years. The estimated IIP so derived for the current year at 2-digit level
is used to extrapolate the previous year’s value added estimates at 2-digit
level, separately for the quasi corporate and household sectors. IIP manufacturing
registered growth rates of (-) 1.0 during April-October, 2016-17 as compared to
5.1 percent during April-October, 2015-16. The wholesale price index (WPI), in
respect of the manufactured products registered a growth of 2.0 per cent
during April-November, 2016-17 as compared to (-)1.3 percent during April-November,
2015-16.
Electricity, Gas, water
supply and other utility services
9. GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘Electricity ,Gas, water
supply and other utility services’ sector is expected to grow by 6.5 percent
as compared to growth of 6.6 percent in 2015-16. The Advance Estimates of key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity compiled by dividing the cumulative index
for the 7 months of the current year, by the average of ratio of 7 months index
to the annual index of past years has been used. IIP of
Electricity registered a growth rate of 4.6 percent during April-October, 2016-17
as against 5.2 percent growth during April-October, 2015-16.
Construction
10. GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from
‘Construction’ sector is expected to grow by 2.9 percent as compared to growth
of 3.9 percent in 2015-16. Key indicators of construction sector, namely,
production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates
of 4.3 percent and 3.0 percent respectively during April-November, 2016-17.
Trade,
hotels and Transport & communication and services related to broadcasting
11. The estimated growth in GVA for the trade, hotels, transport and
communication and services related to broadcasting services during 2016-17 is
placed at 6.0 per cent as against growth of 9.0 percent in the previous year. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales
tax growth. As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from
CAG website, sales tax collection is expected to grow by 8.6 percent during
2016-17. WPI of all commodities registered 2.8 percent growth during
April-November 2016-17 as against (-)3.3 percent during April-November,
2015-16. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways,
namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth
rate of (-) 7.4 per cent and (-) 0.4 percent respectively during April-November
2016-17. Cargo handled at major sea ports increased by 6.8
per cent during April-November, 2016-17 as compared to 3.4 percent during
April-November, 2015-16. Passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation increased
by 19.6 per cent and 9.9 per cent respectively during April-November, 2016-17 as compared to 16.5 percent and 5.9 percent respectively during April-November, 2015-16. Sales of commercial vehicles
registered growth of 4.7 percent during April-November,
2016-17 as compared to 8.1 percent during April-November, 2015-16.
Financial, insurance, real estate
and professional services
12. The estimated growth in GVA for this sector during 2016-17 is placed at 9.0 percent as compared to
growth of 10.3 percent in 2015-16. Major component of this industry is the
real estate and professional services which has a share of 71.0 percent. The key
indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real
estate sector and computer related activities which was estimated using latest available
information on listed companies for the first half of 2016-17. The other
indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have
shown growth rates of 9.8 per cent, and 9.1 per cent, respectively as on October
2016 as against growth of 10.5 percent and 8.8 percent respectively as on October
2015.
Public administration and defence
and other services
13. GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from this
sector is expected to grow by 12.8 percent as compared to growth of 6.6 percent
in 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government
expenditure net of interest payments and subsidies grew by 25.3 percent during April-November
2016-17.
Per Capita Income
14. The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices)
during 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of `81805
as compared to `77,435 for the year 2015-16. The growth rate in per capita income is
estimated at 5.6 per cent during 2016-17, as against 6.2 per cent in the
previous year.
B. ESTIMATES AT CURRENT PRICES
15. Price
indices used as deflators
The wholesale
price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, manufactured
products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 6.9 per cent, 2.0 per
cent, (-)1.4 per cent and 2.8 percent, respectively during April-November 2016-17.
The consumer price index has shown a rise of 5.0 per cent during April-November,
2016-17.
Gross Domestic Product
16. GDP is
derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at
basic prices. GDP at current prices in the year 2016-17
is likely to attain a level of `151.93 lakh crore, as against `135.76
lakh crore in 2015-16 showing a growth rate of 11.9 per cent.
National Income
17. The nominal Net National Income (NNI), also known as national
income (at current prices) is likely to be `133.81
lakh crore during 2016-17, as against `119.69 lakh crore for
the year 2015-16. In terms of growth rates, the national income registered a
growth rate of 11.8 per cent in 2016-17 as against the previous year’s growth
rate of 8.7 per cent.
Per Capita Income
18. The per capita net national income during 2016-17 is
estimated to be `103,007 showing a rise of 10.4 per cent as compared to `93,293 during 2015-16 with the growth rate of 7.4 percent.
C. ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF FINAL
EXPENDITURES OF GDP, 2016-17
19. Along
with the First Advance Estimates of GVA at basic prices by economic activity,
the First Advance Estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant
(2011-12) prices are also released. These estimates have been compiled using
the data from the same sources as those used for compiling GVA estimates by
economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of
imports and exports, balance of payments, and expenditure of Central
Government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product,
namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at
market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market
prices only.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
20. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current
prices is estimated at `89.72 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `80.78
lakh crore in 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `67.13 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `63.01
lakh crore in 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and
constant (2011-12) prices during 2016-17 are estimated at 59.1 per cent and 55.2
per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.5 per cent and
55.5 per cent, respectively in 2015-16.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
21. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current
prices is estimated at `18.61 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `14.39
lakh crore in 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `13.95 lakh crore in 2016-17as against `11.27
lakh crore in 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and
constant (2011-12) prices during 2016-17 are estimated at 12.3 per cent and 11.5
per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 10.6 per cent and
9.9 per cent, respectively in 2015-16.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
22. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is
estimated at `40.39 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `39.72
lakh crore in 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `35.35 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `35.41
lakh crore in 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and
constant (2011-12) prices during 2016-17 are estimated at 26.6 per cent and 29.1
per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.3 per cent and
31.2 per cent, respectively in 2015-16. The GFCF is expected to register growth
rate of 1.7 percent at current prices and (-)0.2 percent at constant prices.
23. Estimates
of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at basic
prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures of GDP for the years
2014-15 and 2015-16 and 2016-17, at constant (2011-12) and current prices are
given in Statements 1 to 4.
24. The
next release of second advance estimates of national income for the year
2016-17 and quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter Ocotber-December, 2016 (Q3 of
2016-17) will be on 28.02.2017.
|
STATEMENT 1: First Advance Estimates of National Income and
Expenditures on GDP, 2016-17
|
|
( At 2011-
12 Prices)
|
|
(` crore)
|
|
|
|
|
(
|
Item
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
|
|
S.No
|
|
( 1st RE )
|
(PE)
|
(Ist AE)
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
|
|
Domestic
Product
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
GVA at basic prices
|
9727490
|
10427191
|
11153038
|
7.2
|
7.0
|
|
2
|
Net taxes on
products
|
824660
|
923058
|
1001760
|
11.9
|
8.5
|
|
3
|
GDP (1+2)
|
10552151
|
11350249
|
12154797
|
7.6
|
7.1
|
|
4
|
NDP
|
9359476
|
10071784
|
10787338
|
7.6
|
7.1
|
|
|
Final
Expenditures
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5
|
PFCE
|
5864283
|
6301128
|
6713186
|
7.4
|
6.5
|
|
6
|
GFCE
|
1102607
|
1126952
|
1394898
|
2.2
|
23.8
|
|
7
|
GFCF
|
3408251
|
3540750
|
3535003
|
3.9
|
-0.2
|
|
8
|
CIS
|
195007
|
205816
|
216545
|
5.5
|
5.2
|
|
9
|
VALUABLES
|
173275
|
173811
|
115665
|
0.3
|
-33.5
|
|
10
|
Exports of
goods and services
|
2508402
|
2377742
|
2429080
|
-5.2
|
2.2
|
|
11
|
Less Imports of
goods and services
|
2664390
|
2590793
|
2491499
|
-2.8
|
-3.8
|
|
12
|
Discrepancies
|
-35284
|
214843
|
241919
|
|
|
|
13
|
GDP
|
10552151
|
11350249
|
12154797
|
7.6
|
7.1
|
|
|
RATES TO GDP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14
|
PFCE
|
55.6
|
55.5
|
55.2
|
|
|
|
15
|
GFCE
|
10.4
|
9.9
|
11.5
|
|
|
|
16
|
GFCF
|
32.3
|
31.2
|
29.1
|
|
|
|
17
|
CIS
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
|
|
|
18
|
VALUABLES
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.0
|
|
|
|
19
|
Exports of
goods and services
|
23.8
|
20.9
|
20.0
|
|
|
|
20
|
Less Imports of
goods and services
|
25.2
|
22.8
|
20.5
|
|
|
|
21
|
Discrepancies
|
-0.3
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
|
|
|
22
|
GDP
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|
|
|
23
|
GNI
|
10427701
|
11213328
|
11993865
|
7.5
|
7.0
|
|
24
|
NNI
|
9235026
|
9934863
|
10626406
|
7.6
|
7.0
|
|
Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption
|
|
|
|
25
|
Population* (in
million)
|
1267
|
1283
|
1299
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
|
26
|
Per Capita GDP
|
83285
|
88466
|
93570
|
6.2
|
5.8
|
|
27
|
Per Capita GNI
|
82302
|
87399
|
92332
|
6.2
|
5.6
|
|
28
|
Per Capita NNI
|
72889
|
77435
|
81805
|
6.2
|
5.6
|
|
29
|
Per Capita PFCE
|
46285
|
49112
|
51680
|
6.1
|
5.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Relates to
mid-financial year
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RE:
Revised estimates PE:
Provisional Estimates; AE: Advance Estimate
s
|
STATEMENT 2: First Advance Estimates of National Income and
Expenditures on GDP, 2016-17
|
|
( At Current
Prices)
|
|
(` crore)
|
|
|
|
|
S.No
|
Item
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
|
|
|
( 1st RE )
|
(PE)
|
(Ist AE)
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
|
Domestic Product
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
GVA at basic prices
|
11472409
|
12279410
|
13602175
|
7.0
|
10.8
|
|
2
|
Net taxes on products
|
1015796
|
1296676
|
1590413
|
27.7
|
22.7
|
|
3
|
GDP (1+2)
|
12488205
|
13576086
|
15192588
|
8.7
|
11.9
|
|
4
|
NDP
|
11155025
|
12126769
|
13570701
|
8.7
|
11.9
|
|
Final Expenditures
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5
|
PFCE
|
7193046
|
8077560
|
8972423
|
12.3
|
11.1
|
|
6
|
GFCE
|
1365463
|
1439198
|
1861284
|
5.4
|
29.3
|
|
7
|
GFCF
|
3844366
|
3972401
|
4039237
|
3.3
|
1.7
|
|
8
|
CIS
|
220557
|
234444
|
256815
|
6.3
|
9.5
|
|
9
|
VALUABLES
|
192663
|
187461
|
138721
|
-2.7
|
-26.0
|
|
10
|
Exports of goods and services
|
2861066
|
2706892
|
2861096
|
-5.4
|
5.7
|
|
11
|
Less Imports of goods and services
|
3233123
|
3051005
|
3034410
|
-5.6
|
-0.5
|
|
12
|
Discrepancies
|
44168
|
9135
|
97422
|
|
|
|
13
|
GDP
|
12488205
|
13576086
|
15192588
|
8.7
|
11.9
|
|
RATES TO GDP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14
|
PFCE
|
57.6
|
59.5
|
59.1
|
|
|
|
15
|
GFCE
|
10.9
|
10.6
|
12.3
|
|
|
|
16
|
GFCF
|
30.8
|
29.3
|
26.6
|
|
|
|
17
|
CIS
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
|
|
|
18
|
VALUABLES
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
0.9
|
|
|
|
19
|
Exports of goods and services
|
22.9
|
19.9
|
18.8
|
|
|
|
20
|
Less Imports of goods and
services
|
25.9
|
22.5
|
20.0
|
|
|
|
21
|
Discrepancies
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.6
|
|
|
|
22
|
GDP
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|
|
|
23
|
GNI
|
12340772
|
13418745
|
15002477
|
8.7
|
11.8
|
|
24
|
NNI
|
11007592
|
11969428
|
13380590
|
8.7
|
11.8
|
|
25
|
GNDI
|
12745926
|
13832957
|
15394372
|
8.5
|
11.3
|
|
26
|
NNDI
|
11412746
|
12383640
|
13772485
|
8.5
|
11.2
|
|
Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption
|
|
|
|
|
27
|
Per Capita GDP
|
98565
|
105815
|
116956
|
7.4
|
10.5
|
|
28
|
Per Capita GNI
|
97402
|
104589
|
115493
|
7.4
|
10.4
|
|
29
|
Per Capita NNI
|
86879
|
93293
|
103007
|
7.4
|
10.4
|
|
30
|
Per Capita GNDI
|
100599
|
107817
|
118509
|
7.2
|
9.9
|
|
31
|
Per Capita PFCE
|
56772
|
62958
|
69072
|
10.9
|
9.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Relates to
mid-financial year
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RE:
Revised estimates PE:
Provisional Estimates; AE: Advance Estimates
|
STATEMENT 3: First Advance Estimates of GVA at
Basic Price by Economic Activity
|
|
(At 2011-12 prices)
|
|
(`
crore)
|
|
|
|
Industry
|
2014-15
( 1st RE )
|
2015-16
(PE)
|
2016-17
( IstAE)
|
Per centage change over previous year
|
|
|
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
|
1. Agriculture,
forestry & fishing
|
1,584,293
|
1,604,044
|
1,669,833
|
1.2
|
4.1
|
|
2. Mining &
quarrying
|
296,328
|
318,377
|
312,663
|
7.4
|
-1.8
|
|
3. Manufacturing
|
1,667,069
|
1,821,926
|
1,957,026
|
9.3
|
7.4
|
|
4. Electricity,
gas,water supply& other utility services
|
216,970
|
231,228
|
246,188
|
6.6
|
6.5
|
|
5. Construction
|
854,636
|
887,957
|
913,918
|
3.9
|
2.9
|
|
6. Trade,
hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting
|
1,833,997
|
1,998,292
|
2,117,867
|
9.0
|
6.0
|
|
7. Financial,
real estate & professional services
|
2,039,460
|
2,248,845
|
2,450,391
|
10.3
|
9.0
|
|
8. Public
administration, defence and Other Services
|
1,234,737
|
1,316,522
|
1,485,151
|
6.6
|
12.8
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
9,727,490
|
10,427,191
|
11,153,038
|
7.2
|
7.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RE:
Revised estimates PE:
Provisional Estimates; AE: Advance Estimates
STATEMENT 4: First Advance Estimates of GVA at Basic
Price by Economic Activity
|
|
(At current prices)
|
|
(`
crore)
|
|
|
|
Industry
|
2014-15
( 1st RE )
|
2015-16
(PE)
|
2016-17
( IstAE)
|
Per centage change over previous year
|
|
|
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
|
1. Agriculture,
forestry & fishing
|
1,995,251
|
2,093,081
|
2,318,239
|
4.9
|
10.8
|
|
2. Mining &
quarrying
|
304,300
|
318,672
|
321,701
|
4.7
|
1.0
|
|
3. Manufacturing
|
1,845,541
|
1,994,330
|
2,186,573
|
8.1
|
9.6
|
|
4. Electricity,
gas,water supply& other utility services
|
288,935
|
320,186
|
335,457
|
10.8
|
4.8
|
|
5. Construction
|
1,003,903
|
1,016,659
|
1,075,632
|
1.3
|
5.8
|
|
6. Trade,
hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting
|
2,140,370
|
2,281,533
|
2,482,019
|
6.6
|
8.8
|
|
7. Financial, real
estate & professional services
|
2,359,279
|
2,534,422
|
2,845,239
|
7.4
|
12.3
|
|
8. Public
administration, defence and Other Services
|
1,534,831
|
1,720,527
|
2,037,315
|
12.1
|
18.4
|
|
9. GVA
at Basic Price
|
11,472,409
|
12,279,410
|
13,602,175
|
7.0
|
10.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RE:
Revised estimates PE:
Provisional Estimates; AE: Advance Estimates