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Government of India
Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation
31-August-2016 17:30 IST
Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the First Quarter (April-June) of 2016-17

The  Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of  Statistics and   Programme  Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product(GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1, of 2016-17, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

 

2. The details of estimates of GDP for Q1, 2016-17 are presented below.

 

I                   ESTIMATES OF GVA BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

 

(a)                At constant (2011-2012) prices

 

3.         GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 of 2016-17 is estimated at ` 29.17 lakh crore, as against ` 27.24 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 7.1 percent.  Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at constant (2011-2012) prices for Q1 of 2016-17 is estimated at ` 27.38 lakh crore, as against `25.51 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 7.3 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

 

4.         The economic activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q1 of 2016-17 over Q1 of 2015-16 are ‘manufacturing’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, ‘trade, hotels, transport & communication and services related to broadcasting’, 'financial, insurance, real estate and professional services' and ‘public administration, defence and other services.  The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, and ‘construction’ is estimated to be 1.8 per cent, (-) 0.4 percent, and 1.5 per cent respectively during this period.

 

5.         Industry analysis

            The first quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Rabi season of 2015-16 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC), abridged financial results  of  listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor general of India (CAG) for the period April-June 2016-17. Performance of key sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport etc., communication, banking and insurance during the period April-June 2016-17 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during April-June 2016-17 based on data received from BSE/NSE have been taken into account.  Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, Profit before tax and depreciation of listed companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the corporate sector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

5.1     Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 1.8 percent as compared to growth of 2.6 percent in Q1 2015-16. According  to  the  information  furnished  by  the  Department  of  Agriculture  and Cooperation  (DAC),  which  has been  used  in  compiling  the  estimate  of  GVA from agriculture in Q1 of 2016-17, the production of rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses registered growth rates of (-)7.7 percent, 8.1 percent, (-)9.7 percent and (-)4.2 percent respectively during  the  Rabi  season of  agriculture year 2015-16 (which ended in June 2016). Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds registered a growth of 4.7 per cent during the Rabi season of 2015-16. The crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 58.0 percent of GDP in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector.  Around 42.0 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of about 3.7 percent in Q1 of 2016-17.

 

Mining and quarrying

5.2.      Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector grew by   (-)0.4 percent as compared to growth of 8.5 percent in Q1 2015-16.  The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas and IIP mining registered growth rates of 5.4 per cent, (-)3.3 percent, (-)6.1 percent and 2.3 percent, during Q1 of 2016-17.  As per the available information, private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as estimated for major listed companies of BSE and NSE at current prices was  (-) 24.0 percent in Q1 2016-17.

 

Manufacturing

5.3   Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 9.1 percent as compared to growth of 7.3 percent in Q1 2015-16.   The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 75 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE is 11.9 percent at current prices during Q1 of 2016-17 as against 5.5 percent in Q1 of 2015-16. The quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which has a share of over 20 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP manufacturing registered growth rate of (-) 0.7 per cent during Q1 of 2016-17.

 

Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services

 

 5.4   Quarterly GVA at basic prices for  Q1 2016-17 from ‘Electricity ,Gas, water supply and other utility services’  sector  grew by 9.4 percent as compared to growth of 4.0 percent in Q1 2015-16.   The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 9.0 per cent during Q1 of 2016-17 as compared to 2.3 percent in Q1 of 2015-16.

 

 

Construction

5.5       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 1.5 percent as compared to growth of 5.6 percent in Q1 2015-16.  Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 5.7 per cent and 0.3 percent, respectively, during Q1 of 2016-17 as compared to 1.4 percent and 5.6 percent respectively, in Q1 of 2015-16.

 

 

Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting

5.6.                        Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from this sector grew by 8.1 percent as compared to growth of 10.0 percent in Q1 2015-16. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth.  As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection grew by 6.9 percent during Q1 of 2016-17. Indicator used for estimating GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector.  The private corporate sector growth in the hotels and restaurant sector as estimated from available data from listed companies with BSE and NSE at current prices is 3.1 percent during Q1 of 2016-17. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of  railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rate of (-)8.8 per cent and (-)1.6 percent respectively during Q1 of 2016-17.  In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major ports registered growth rates of 18.3 percent, 8.2 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively, during Q1 of 2016-17. Sales of commercial vehicles registered 13.0 percent growth during Q1 of 2016-17.

 

Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services

5.7       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from this sector grew by 9.4 percent as compared to growth of 9.3 percent in Q1 2015-16.  Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 73.9 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for computer related activities which as estimated from available data from listed companies with BSE and NSE at current prices is 9.6 percent, respectively, during Q1 of 2016-17. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 9.7 per cent  and 9.4 per cent, respectively as on June 2016.

 

Public administration, defence and other services

5.8       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2016-17 from this sector grew by 12.3 percent as   compared to growth of 5.9 percent in Q1 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector namely, union government revenue expenditure grew by 24.3 percent during Q1 of 2016-17 as compared to 2.4 percent in Q1 of 2015-16.

(b)       At current prices

 

6.         GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in Q1 of 2016-17 is estimated at ` 35.05 lakh crore, as against ` 31.75 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 10.4 percent. GVA at Basic Price at current prices in Q1 of 2016-17, is estimated at ` 33.00 lakh crore, as against `30.02 lakh crore in Q1, 2015-16, showing an increase of 9.9 per cent. Growth in collection of Union Excise duties, custom duties and service tax was 61 percent, 18 percent and 29 percent respectively in Q1, 2016-17 as against 104 percent, 22 percent and 14.2 percent in Q1 2015-16. Major subsidies grew by 53 percent in Q1 of 2016-17 as against decline of 26 percent in Q1, 2015-16.

 

(c)        Price indices used as deflators

7.         The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 7.0 per cent, (-) 19.2 percent, 1.1 per cent,1.1 per cent and 1.2 percent, respectively during Q1 of 2016-17 over Q1 of 2015-16. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 5.7 per cent during Q1 of 2016-17 over Q1 of 2015-16.

 

 

II         ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

8.                                    The components of expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

9.                                    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `21.19 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against `18.98 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16.  At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `16.06 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against `15.04 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16.  In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2016-17 are estimated at 60.5 per cent and 55.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.8 per cent and 55.2 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2015-16.

 

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

10.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `4.53 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against `3.64 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16.At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `3.49 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against `2.94 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant(2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2016-17 are estimated at 12.9 per cent and 12.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 11.5 per cent and 10.8 percent each in Q1 of 2015-16.

 

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `9.94 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against `10.05 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015-16. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `8.64 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17 as against `8.92 lakh crore in Q1 of 2015- 16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2016-17 are estimated at 28.3 per cent and 29.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 31.6 per cent and 32.7 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2015-16.

 

12.       Estimates of GVA at basic price by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q1 of 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 at constant (2011-2012) and current prices, are given in Statements1 to 4.

 

13.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter July-September, 2016 (Q2 of 2016-17) will be on 30.11.2016.

 

 

 

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN

Q1(APRIL-JUNE) OF 2016-17

(at 2011-2012 prices)

 

 

 

 

Industry

APRIL-JUNE(Q1)

(` crore)

Gross Value Added for Q1

Percentage change Over previous year Q1

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

1.agriculture,forestry & fishing

358482

367623

374390

2.6

1.8

2.mining & quarrying

79708

86444

86091

8.5

-0.4

3.manufacturing

418682

449280

490164

7.3

9.1

4.electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services

54853

57037

62378

4.0

9.4

5.construction

213576

225637

229092

5.6

1.5

6.trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting

439474

483238

522610

10.0

8.1

7.financial, insurance, real estate &        professional services

531933

581471

635963

9.3

9.4

8.Public administration, defence & other services

283826

300705

337630

5.9

12.3

GVA at Basic Price

2380534

2551435

2738318

7.2

7.3

 

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN

Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2016-17

(at 2011-2012 prices)

 

 

 

 

Item

APRIL-JUNE(Q1)

(`crore)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product for Q1

RATES OF GDP (%)

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

1. Private Final Consumption

Expenditure(PFCE)

1406817

1504442

1605527

55.2

55.0

2. Government Final Consumption

Expenditure(GFCE)

294338

293720

349059

10.8

12.0

3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation

(GFCF)

832420

891627

863956

32.7

29.6

4. Change in Stocks

48976

50754

54345

1.9

1.9

5. Valuables

42871

43138

22129

1.6

0.8

6. Exports

620869

585324

604052

21.5

20.7

7. Less Imports

661700

645577

607953

23.7

20.8

8.Discrepancies

-49687

761

26232

0.0

0.9

GDP

2534903

2724188

2917348

100.0

100.0

GDP (% change over previous year)

 

7.5

7.1

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN

Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2016-17

 (at current prices)

 

 

 

 

 

Industry

APRIL-JUNE(Q1)

(`crore)

Gross Value Added for Q1

Percentage change Over previous year Q1

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

1.agriculture,forestry & fishing

440336

466308

504381

5.9

8.2

2.mining & quarrying

91393

96870

97614

6.0

0.8

3.manufacturing

463326

494225

545229

6.7

10.3

4.electricity,gas,water supply & other utility services

72870

77069

85190

5.8

10.5

5.construction

251972

260151

267375

3.2

2.8

6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting

515657

555922

608714

7.8

9.5

7.financial, insurance, real estate &        professional services

618229

660964

731238

6.9

10.6

8.Public administration, defence & other services

349424

390350

460094

11.7

17.9

GVA at Basic Price

2803207

3001859

3299835

7.1

9.9

 

STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN

Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2016-17

(at current prices)

 

 

 

 

Item

APRIL-JUNE(Q1)

(`crore)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product for Q1

RATES OF GDP (%)

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

1. Private Final Consumption

Expenditure(PFCE)

1701060

1898161

2119544

59.8

60.5

2. Government Final Consumption

Expenditure(GFCE)

353530

364372

452915

11.5

12.9

3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation

(GFCF)

940407

1004712

993514

31.6

28.3

4. Change in Stocks

55371

58099

64223

1.8

1.8

5. Valuables

47668

46526

24512

1.5

0.7

6. Exports

706261

665872

701942

21.0

20.0

7. Less Imports

799914

759491

732701

23.9

20.9

8.Discrepancies

-87827

-103605

-118497

-3.3

-3.4

GDP

2916556

3174645

3505453

100.0

100.0

GDP (% change over previous year)

 

8.8

10.4

 

 

 

RDS