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Press Information Bureau
Government of India
Ministry of Earth Science
16 MAY 2021 10:19AM by PIB Delhi
Cyclonic Storm "Tauktae" very likely to intensify during next 24 hours; very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17th& cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) around 18th May early morning

According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD): (TIME OF ISSUE: 0810 HOURS IST, DATED: 16.05.2021, INDIAMETEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT)

 

The VerySevere Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved nearly northwards with a speed of about 11 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 16th May, 2021 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 15.0°N and longitude 72.7°E, about 130 km west-southwest of Panjim-Goa, 450 km south of Mumbai, 700 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat) and 840 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).

It is very likely to intensify during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17th& cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) around 18th May early morning.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

 

Date/Time (IST)

Position

(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

16.05.21/0530

15.0/72.7

120-130 gusting to 145

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

16.05.21/1130

15.8/72.4

130-140 gusting to 155

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

16.05.21/1730

16.5/72.0

140-150 gusting to 165

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

16.05.21/2330

17.3/71.5

145-155 gusting to 170

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

17.05.21/0530

18.1/71.2

150-160 gusting to 175

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

17.05.21/1730

19.5/70.7

150-160 gusting to 175

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

18.05.21/0530

21.0/70.6

150-160 gusting to 175

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

18.05.21/1730

22.6/71.0

70-80 gusting to 90

Cyclonic Storm

19.05.21/0530

24.2/71.7

30-40 gusting to 50

Depression

 

Warnings:

(i)         Rainfall: 

  • Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16th and heavy falls at isolated places on 17th May.

  • Karnataka (coastal & adjoining Ghat districts): Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16th.

  • Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Konkan & Goa & adjoining Ghat areas on 16th and heavy falls at isolated places on 17th May over north Konkan.

  • Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at many places very likely to commence over coastal districts of Saurashtra from 16th May afternoon, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch and Diu and extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 17th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra & Kutch and Diu with extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places on 18th.

  • Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Rajasthan on 18th& over Rajasthan on 19th May.

 

(ii) Wind warning

  • Gale wind speed reaching 120–130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph is prevailing over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It is likely to increase over eastcentral Arabian Sea becoming 145-155 kmph gusting to 170 kmph from 16th May morning.

  • Gale winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph along & off south Maharashtra –Goa  and adjoining Karnataka coasts on 16th , 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast on 16th. It is likely to become 65- 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast from 17th till 18th morning.

  • Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts from 16th morning and gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast (Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli) and 120 -150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Bhavnagar districts of Gujarat from early hours of 18th. Gale winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph likely to prevail along & off Dadra, Nagar Haveli, Daman, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Bharuch, southern parts of Ahmedabad, Anand districts from 17th mid-night till 18th morning.

 

 

(iii) Sea condition

  • Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be very high to Phenomenal on 16th May and over northeast Arabian Sea on 17th& 18th May.

  • Sea conditions will be very rough to High along & off Maharashtra–Goa coasts on 16th May and along & off north Maharashtra coast on 17th Morning. It is very likely to be very rough to High along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 17th midnight.

(iv)Storm surge warning

            Tidal wave of about 3 m Junagarh,1-2.5 m above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas of Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bharuch, Bhavnagar, Ahmedabad, Anand, Surat  and about 0.5 -1m over Devbhoomi Dwarka , Jamnagar, Porbandar, Kutch the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall.(Details enclosed).

 

(v)        Fishermen Warning

  • Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Karnataka-Goa–Maharashtra coasts.

  • Total suspension of fishing operations over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast from 17th May.

  • The fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast till 17th Morning and into eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra–Goa coasts and into northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18th May.

  • Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

 

(vi) (A) Damage Expected over Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Jamnagar & Bhavnagar districts of Gujarat:

  • Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses.  Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.

  • Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.

  • Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.  Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.

  • Widespread damage to salt pans & standing crops, Blowing down of bushy trees.

  • Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

  • Visibility severely affected.

(vi) (B) Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Rajkot, Botad & Morbi districts of Gujarat:

  • Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.

  • Minor damage to power and communication lines.

  • Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.

  • Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.

  • Major damage to coastal crops.

  • Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

 

(vii) Action Suggested:

  • Total suspension of fishing operations.

  • Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.

  • People in affected areas to remain indoors. 

  • Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.

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(Please CLICK HERE for details in graphics)

 

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SS/RP/ (IMD input)