The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’ (pronounced as Bul bul) over northwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal moved nearly northwards with a speed of 13 kmph during past 06 hours, and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 9th November 2019, over northwest Bay of Bengal, near Lat.20.0°N and Long. 87.7°E about 110 km east-southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 190 km south-southwest of Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and 340 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). It is very likely to weaken gradually, move northeastwards and cross West Bengal - Bangladesh Coasts between Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and Khepupara (Bangladesh), across Sunderban delta by late evening/night of 9th November as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 110-120 Kmph gusting to 135 Kmph.

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’ is being tracked by the Doppler Weather Radars at Gopalpur, Paradip and Kolkata in addition to other observing platforms.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time (IST)

Position

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

Lat. (0N) 

Long. (0E)

09.11.19/0530

20.0

87.7

135-145 gusting to 160

09.11.19/1130

20.6

88.0

130-140 gusting to 155

09.11.19/1730

21.3

88.5

120-130 gusting to 145

09.11.19/2330

21.9

89.2

100-110 gusting to 120

10.11.19/0530

22.5

90.0

70-80 gusting to 90

10.11.19/1730

23.6

91.4

40-50 gusting to 60

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall:

     Odisha:

• Light to moderate rainfall at most places very likely over north coastal districts of Odisha with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur districts and with heavy falls at isolated places over Jajpur district on 9^th November 2019.

     West Bengal:

• Light to moderate rainfall at many places very likely over North and South 24 Parganas and east Medinipur districts during next 06 hours.
• Light to moderate rainfall at most places very likely over coastal districts of West Bengal with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 20 cm in 24 hours) at isolated places over North & South 24 Parganas, East Medinipur, and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly on 9^th November 2019.
• Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya till 10^th November morning.

     North-eastern States:

• Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls very likely over Mizoram and Tripura on 9^th November and over South Assam& Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram on 10^th November.

(ii) Wind warning

• Bay of Bengal:  Gale wind speed reaching 135-145 kmph gusting to 160 kmph is prevailing over northwest Bay of Bengal around the system centre. It is very likely to decrease gradually and become 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph by 9^th evening and decrease gradually thereafter.
• Odisha coast: Squally wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph is prevailing along & off Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Balasore and Bhadrak districts. It is very likely to become Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph during next 06 hours along & off these coasts and decrease thereafter. Puri and Ganjam districts are likely to experience squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph during next 06 hours.
•  West Bengal coast: Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is prevailing along and off West Bengal coast. It will gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph from 09^th afternoon for next 12 hours along & off East Medinipur, North & South 24 Parganas. Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 Kmph gusting to 70 Kmph also likely over adjoining districts of West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly during the same period.

(iii) Sea condition

• Sea condition will be high to very high till 9^th night along & off north Odisha coast and along & off West Bengal & Bangladesh coasts till 10^th November morning.
• Sea condition is phenomenal over northwest Bay of Bengal. It is very likely to continue to be phenomenal till evening and improve gradually thereafter. Sea condition will be high to very high over northeast Bay of Bengal till 9^th evening and become high to very rough for subsequent 12 hours.

(iv) Storm Surge

• Storm surge of about 1.0 to 2.0 meter height above Astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of South and North 24 Parganas and 0.5-1.0 meter height above Astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of east Medinipur during the time of landfall. The maximum extent of inundation is likely to be around 2 km over South and North 24 Parganas.

(v) Fishermen Warning

• Total suspension of fishing operations over Odisha-West Bengal coasts till morning of 10^th November.
• Fishermen are advised not to venture into Sea along & off Odisha – West Bengal coasts till 10^th morning.
• Fishermen are advised not to venture into westcentral Bay of Bengal during next 12 hours and over north Bay of Bengal for next 24 hours.

(vi) Damage Expected over coastal districts of north Odisha:

• Damage to thatched houses/ huts. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Damage to embankments/ salt pans.
• Partial damage to power and communication lines.
• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of trees. Damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
• Major damage to coastal crops

          Damage Expected over coastal districts of West Bengal:

• Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Minor damage to power and communication lines.
• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Dead limbs blown from trees.
• Major damage to coastal crops.
• Damage to embankments/ salt pans.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

(vii)      Action suggested for coastal districts of north Odisha

• Total suspension of fishing operations till 10^th morning.
• People in affected areas to remain indoors.
• Movement in motor boats unsafe.
• Beach movement to be restricted.

            Action suggested for coastal districts of West Bengal

• Total suspension of fishing operations till 10^th morning.
• Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas of South and North 24 Parganas. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
• Rail and Road traffic to be regulated.
• Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.
• Beach movement to be restricted.

Post-Landfall Outlook

• After the landfall over Sunderban delta by night of today the 9^th November as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph, it is very likely to move east-northeastwards across Bangladesh and weaken gradually. As such, the system is expected to maintain Cyclone intensity till 10^th morning over Bangladesh and adjoining areas Gangetic West Bengal North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya district.

• Under its influence, light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya districts of West Bengal till the morning of 10^th November 2019.

• Gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph is likely over North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya districts of West Bengal during the night of 9^th November for the next 06 hours and decrease gradually thereafter becoming squally wind speed reaching 50-60 Kmph gusting to 70 Kmph over these districts till 10^th morning.
• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 Kmph gusting to 60 Kmph is likely over adjoining districts of West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly during the same period.
• Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph is likely over Kolkata during the night of 9^th November 2019.

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KSP/PK