Weather Systems

• The Monsoon trough is active and south of its normal position at mean sea level. It is likely to shift gradually northwards during next 4-5 days.
• A cyclonic circulation over southeast Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood in lower & middle tropospheric levels.
• The shear zone now runs roughly along 20°N over Indian region between 3.1 & 7.6 km above mean sea level tilting southwards with height.
• The off-shore trough at mean sea level now runs along South Gujarat to Kerala coast.
• A cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra in lower tropospheric levels.

Forecast & Warnings:

West & Central India

• Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over the region during next 5 days.
• Very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Gujarat Region on 29th; Saurashtra & Kutch on 29th & 30th; Konkan & Goa on 01st August; East Madhya Pradesh during 31st July- 02nd August; ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh on 01st & 02nd August, , West Madhya Pradesh on 02nd August.
• Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat Region, West Madhya Pradesh during 29^th July- 02^nd August, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh during 30^th July – 02^nd August, Vidarbha on 29^th July, 01^st & 02^nd August.

Northwest India

• Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and East Rajasthan; scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and West Rajasthan during next 5 days.
• Isolated very heavy rainfall also likely over East Rajasthan on 29th; Uttarakhand during 29th July- 02nd August, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad on 31st July & 01st August, Haryana-Chandigarh, West Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan on 31st July.
• Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand during 29th July- 02nd August, Punjab during 29th July- 01st August, Haryana-Chandigarh during 30th July- 02nd August, Uttar Pradesh during 30th July- 01st August, West Rajasthan during 29th – 31st July.

South Peninsular India:

• Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall over Coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Kerala & Mahe and Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Interior Karnataka and isolated to scattered rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana and Rayalaseema during next 5 days.
• Very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Kerala & Mahe on 29th; Coastal & South Interior Karnataka on 29th & 30th July.
• Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal on 29^th; North Interior Karnataka on 29^th & 30^th; Kerala & Mahe, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka during 29^th July – 01^st August.

East & Northeast India

• Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning very likely over East India and Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Northeast India during next 5 days.
• Very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 29th July- 01st August, Arunachal Pradesh on 01st & 02nd August, Odisha on 31st July & 01st August.
• Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Odisha, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 29^th July – 02^nd August, Arunachal Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 29^th, 30^th July 01^st August & 02^nd August, Assam & Meghalaya on 29^th, 30^th; Jharkhand during 30^th July- 01^st August, Gangetic West Bengal on 29^th, 31^st July & 01 August.

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KSY/PSM