2.         The details of estimates of GDP for Q2 of 2018-19arepresented below:

 

I           ESTIMATES OF GVA BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

 

(a)        At Constant (2011-2012) Prices

 

3.         GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at `33.98 lakh crore, as against `31.72lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 7.1 percent.  Quarterly GVA (Basic Price) at Constant (2011-2012) Prices for Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at `31.40 lakh crore, as against `29.38lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 6.9 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

 

4.         The Economic Activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q2 of 2018-19 over Q2 of 2017-18 are ‘Manufacturing, ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’‘Construction’ and‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services’. The growth in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting’ and Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services is estimated to be 3.8 percent, (-) 2.4 percent, 6.8 percent, and 6.3 percent respectively during this period.

 

5.         Industry Analysis

            The second quarter estimates are based on Agricultural production during Kharif season of 2018-19obtained from theDepartment of Agriculture, Cooperation&Farmer Welfare (DAC& FW), abridged financial results of Listed Companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government Expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period July-September2018-19. Performance of key sectors like Transport including Railways, Road, Air and Water Transport, etc., Communication, Banking and Insurance during the period July-September2018-19 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the Corporatesector during July-September2018based on data received from BSE/NSE hasbeen taken into account. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1^st July 2017 and consequent changes in the Tax Structure, the total Tax Revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST Revenue and GST Revenue based on GSTR filings as provided by Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, Ministry of Finance.Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, profit before tax and depreciation of Listed Companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the Corporatesector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

5.1    Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector grew by 3.8 percent as compared to growth of 2.6percent in Q22017-18. According tothe  information  furnished  by  the  Department of Agriculture, Cooperation&Farmer Welfare (DAC& FW), which has been used  in compiling the estimate of GVA from agriculture in Q2 of 2018-19, the production of Food Grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2018-19 grew by0.6percent as compared to growth of 1.7percent during the same period in2017-18.Around 55percent of GVA of this sector is based on the Livestock products, Forestry and Fisheries, which registereda combined growth of about6.7percent in Q2 of 2018-19.

 

Mining and Quarrying

5.2.Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector declined by2.4percent as compared to growth of 6.9percent in Q22017-18.  The key indicators of Mining sector, namely, production of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas and IIP Mining registered growth rates of6.2percent, (-) 4.4 percent,(-) 2.0 percent and 1.0 percent, during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 8.5 percent, (-) 0.7 percent, 4.7 percent and 7.1 percentrespectively, during Q2 of 2017-18.

Manufacturing

 

5.3   Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector grew by 7.4percent as compared to growth of 7.1percent in Q22017-18. The Private Corporate sector growth (which has a share of over75 percent in the Manufacturing sector)was estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE.  The Quasi -Corporate and Unorganized segment (which has a share of over20percent in the Manufacturing sector)has been estimated using IIP of Manufacturing. IIP Manufacturing registered growth rate of5.5percent during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 2.5 percent during Q2 of 2017-18.

 

Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services

5.4   Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Electricity,Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ sector grew by 9.2percent as compared to growth of 7.7percent in Q22017-18. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of7.5percent during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 6.1percent in Q2 of 2017-18.

Construction

5.5       Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 7.8percent as compared to growth of 3.1percent in Q22017-18.  Key indicators of Construction sector, namely, production of Cement and Consumption of finished Steel registered growth rates of12.5percent and7.2 percentrespectively, during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 0.6percent,7.6percent respectively, in Q2 of 2017-18.

Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

5.6.                        Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from this sector grew by 6.8 percent as compared to growth of 8.5percent in Q22017-18. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the Sales Tax growth. With introduction of GST, Sales Tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on Sales Tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is as explained in the Annex to the press note on estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 released on 30^thNovember, 2017. Indicator used for measuring GVA from Hotels and Restaurant sector is the Private Corporate growth in this sector. Among the Other Services sectors, Cargo handled at Major Sea Ports, Cargo handled by the Civil Aviation and passengers handled by the Civil Aviation registered growth rates of6.4 percent, 5.5 percent and 16.2 percent respectively, during July-September, 2018-19. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of 6.9 percent and 2.2 percent respectively, duringQ2 of 2018-19.

 

Financial,Real Estate and Professional Services

5.7       Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from this sector grew by6.3percent as compared to growth of 6.1percent in Q22017-18.  Major component of this industry is the Real Estate and Professional Services which has a share of over 75percent.The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of Corporate sector for Real Estate, Business Services andComputer Related Activities which are estimated from available data from listed companies. The other indicators of this sector, viz., AggregateBankDeposits, and Bank Credits have shown growth rates of8.1 percent and12.5percent respectively as compared to 8.2 percent and 6.5percentrespectively during 2017-18.

                                                                  

Public Administration, Defence and Other Services

5.8       Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from this sector grew by 10.9percent as   compared to growth of 6.1percent in Q22017-18. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government Revenue Expenditure net of Interest Payments excluding Subsidies,grew by 22.2percent during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 0.8percent in Q2 of 2017-18.

 

 

(b)       At Current Prices

6.         GDP is derived by adding Taxes on Products net of Subsidies on Products to GVA at Basic Prices. GDP at Current Prices in Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at `45.54 lakh crore, as against `40.68 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 12.0 percent. GVA at Basic Price at Current Prices in Q2 of 2018-19, is estimated at `41.46 lakh crore, as against `37.03lakh crore in Q2, 2017-18, showing an increase of12.0 percent.Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ (2.8 percent), ‘Mining and Quarrying’ (20.7 percent), ‘Manufacturing’ (12.2 percent), ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ (16.3 percent), ‘Construction’ (13.2 percent), 'Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication' (12.3percent), 'Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services' (12.5 percent), and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services' (16.1 percent).

 

(c)        Price Indices used as Deflators

7.         The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the groups - Minerals, Manufactured products, Electricity and All Commodities, has registered a growth of 8.2 percent, 4.4 percent, 6.4 percent and 5.0percent respectively whereas Food Articles declined by 2.1 percent during Q2 of 2018-19over Q2 of 2017-18. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.9percent duringQ2 of 2018-19as compared to growth of 3.0 percent during Q2 of 2017-18.

 

II         ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

8.                                    The components of Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, Consumption Expenditure and Capital Formation, are normally measured at Market Prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of Market Prices.

 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

9.                                    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at `26.31 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`23.58 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18.  At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the PFCE is estimated at`18.52 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`17.30 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at Current and Constant (2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2018-19 are estimated at 57.8 percent and54.5 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.0 per cent and 54.5 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2017-18.Growth rates of PFCE at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 11.6 percent and 7.0 percent during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 9.9 percent and 6.8 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18.

 

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

10.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at`5.99lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`5.10 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18.At Constant (2011-2012) Prices, the GFCE is estimated at`4.22lakhcrore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`3.74lakh crorein Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at Current andConstant(2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2018-19are estimatedat13.1 percent and12.4 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of12.5 percent and11.8percentrespectively in Q2 of 2017-18.Growth rates of GFCE at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 17.3 percent and 12.7 percent respectively during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 6.9 percent and 3.8 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at Current Prices is estimated at`13.28 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`11.37 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18. At Constant (2011-2012) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at`10.99 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`9.77 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at Current and Constant (2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2018-19 are estimated at29.2 percent and32.3 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 27.9 percent and30.8percent, respectively in Q2 of 2017-18. Growth rates of GFCF at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 16.8 percent and 12.5 percent during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 8.4 percent and 6.1 percent during Q2 of 2017-18.

 

12.       Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by kind of Economic Activity and the Expenditures on GDP in Q2(duringJuly-September) and in H1 (half yearly duringApril-September) of2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 at Constant (2011-2012) and Current Prices, aregiven in Statements1 to 8.

 

13.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2018 (Q3 of 2018-19) will be on 28.02.2019.

 

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12 Prices)

Industry	(`in crore)						Percentage change
	GVA at Basic Price						over previous year
	2016-17		2017-18		2018-19		2017-18		2018-19
	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing	386986	324733	398609	333334	419747	346102	3.0	2.6	5.3	3.8
Mining & Quarrying	99129	71728	100811	76704	100954	74841	1.7	6.9	0.1	-2.4
Manufacturing	510673	507701	501599	543682	569094	584164	-1.8	7.1	13.5	7.4
Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services	62114	61945	66537	66717	71383	72858	7.1	7.7	7.3	9.2
Construction	225077	213851	229196	220536	249103	237836	1.8	3.1	8.7	7.8
Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication &Services related to Broadcasting	517644	501747	560913	544404	598724	581418	8.4	8.5	6.7	6.8
Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services	659189	727192	714789	771317	761405	820009	8.4	6.1	6.5	6.3
Public Administration, Defence& Other Services	314250	359272	356731	381131	392211	422770	13.5	6.1	9.9	10.9
GVA at Basic Price	2775063	2768167	2929185	2937824	3162622	3139997	5.6	6.1	8.0	6.9

 

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12 Prices)

 

Item	(`in crore)						RATES OF GDP (%)
	Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
	2016-17		2017-18		2018-19		2017-18		2018-19
	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)	1595219	1619781	1705974	1730288	1852663	1851644	54.7	54.5	54.9	54.5
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)	313990	360466	369303	374216	397215	421664	11.8	11.8	11.8	12.4
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)	960255	921132	968141	976881	1065217	1098675	31.0	30.8	31.6	32.3
4. Change in Stocks	22498	22367	21840	23672	23718	24580	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
5. Valuables	37008	39255	82235	60550	75650	74677	2.6	1.9	2.2	2.2
6. Exports	603715	612021	639145	653613	720410	741318	20.5	20.6	21.4	21.8
7. Less Imports	625621	654228	741150	719530	834103	903814	23.8	22.7	24.7	26.6
8. Discrepancies	46358	62743	72929	72420	73213	88875	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.6
GDP	2953421	2983537	3118417	3172110	3373983	3397620	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)			5.6	6.3	8.2	7.1

 

 

 

STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(atCurrent Prices)

 

Industry	(`in crore)						Percentage change
	GVA at Basic Price						over previous year
	2016-17		2017-18		2018-19		2017-18		2018-19
	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing	563170	475789	566713	496356	606107	510157	0.6	4.3	7.0	2.8
Mining &Quarrying	83403	61720	94696	71203	111699	85920	13.5	15.4	18.0	20.7
Manufacturing	575041	574997	579718	630767	682421	707525	0.8	9.7	17.7	12.2
Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services	90327	91141	97388	97819	110246	113729	7.8	7.3	13.2	16.3
Construction	260680	250158	271537	264977	309052	300076	4.2	5.9	13.8	13.2
Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting	602741	590614	671076	660610	749349	742032	11.3	11.9	11.7	12.3
Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services	767018	855853	859451	942353	963864	1060403	12.1	10.1	12.1	12.5
Public Administration, Defence&Other Services	421386	490842	493286	539378	569466	626198	17.1	9.9	15.4	16.1
GVA at Basic Price	3363766	3391115	3633866	3703464	4102203	4146040	8.0	9.2	12.9	12.0

 

STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at Current Prices)

 

 

Item	(`in crore)						RATES OF GDP (%)
	Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
	2016-17		2017-18		2018-19		2017-18		2018-19
	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)	2082484	2146473	2276387	2358320	2589809	2631073	58.4	58.0	58.4	57.8
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)	407970	477261	490957	510364	553398	598719	12.6	12.5	12.5	13.1
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)	1089771	1048896	1120067	1136805	1275225	1327985	28.7	27.9	28.8	29.2
4. Change in Stocks	24726	24724	24522	26682	27470	28661	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.6
5. Valuables	40534	46975	84431	60936	71687	53356	2.2	1.5	1.6	1.2
6. Exports	704192	720269	760244	788999	892035	933243	19.5	19.4	20.1	20.5
7. Less Imports	757439	797968	912714	898512	1069029	1173837	23.4	22.1	24.1	25.8
8. Discrepancies	6254	48717	53504	84199	92770	155039	1.4	2.1	2.1	3.4
GDP	3598492	3715346	3897399	4067793	4433365	4554239	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)			8.3	9.5	13.8	12.0

 

 

 

STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12 Prices)

 

	APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
	(`in crore)			Percentage change
Industry	GVA at Basic Price in H1			Over previous year H1
	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2017-18	2018-19
Agriculture, Forestry&Fishing	711719	731942	765849	2.8	4.6
Mining & Quarrying	170857	177515	175796	3.9	-1.0
Manufacturing	1018374	1045282	1153258	2.6	10.3
Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services	124059	133253	144241	7.4	8.2
Construction	438928	449732	486938	2.5	8.3
Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication &Services related to Broadcasting	1019391	1105317	1180142	8.4	6.8
Financial, Real Estate &Professional Services	1386381	1486106	1581414	7.2	6.4
Public Administration, Defence&Other Services	673522	737861	814981	9.6	10.5
GVA at Basic Price	5543231	5867009	6302619	5.8	7.4

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12 Prices)

 

	APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
	(`in crore)			Rates of GDP (%)
Item	Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1			in H1
	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2017-18	2018-19
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)	3215000	3436262	3704307	54.6	54.7
Government Final Consumption Expenditure	674456	743519	818879	11.8	12.1
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)	1881387	1945023	2163892	30.9	32.0
4. Change in Stocks	44864	45512	48298	0.7	0.7
5. Valuables	76263	142785	150326	2.3	2.2
6. Exports	1215737	1292758	1461728	20.6	21.6
7. Less Imports	1279850	1460680	1737916	23.2	25.7
8. Discrepancies	109101	145349	162088	2.3	2.4
GDP	5936959	6290527	6771603	100.0	100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)		6.0	7.6

 

 

STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at Current Prices)

 

	APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
	(`in crore)			Percentage change
Industry	GVA at Basic Price in H1			over previous year H1
	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2017-18	2018-19
Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing	1038959	1063069	1116264	2.3	5.0
Mining &Quarrying	145124	165899	197618	14.3	19.1
Manufacturing	1150038	1210485	1389946	5.3	14.8
Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services	181467	195207	223976	7.6	14.7
Construction	510839	536514	609127	5.0	13.5
Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting	1193355	1331687	1491381	11.6	12.0
Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services	1622871	1801804	2024266	11.0	12.3
Public Administration, Defence&Other Services	912228	1032664	1195664	13.2	15.8
GVA at Basic Price	6754880	7337329	8248242	8.6	12.4

 

STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at Current Prices)

 

 

 

	APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
	(`in crore)			Rates of GDP (%)
Item	Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1			in H1
	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2017-18	2018-19
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)	4228957	4634707	5220882	58.2	58.1
2.Government Final Consumption Expenditure	885230	1001321	1152117	12.6	12.8
3.Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)	2138667	2256872	2603210	28.3	29.0
4. Change in Stocks	49450	51204	56130	0.6	0.6
5. Valuables	87510	145367	125043	1.8	1.4
6. Exports	1424461	1549243	1825278	19.5	20.3
7. Less Imports	1555407	1811226	2242865	22.7	25.0
8. Discrepancies	54971	137704	247809	1.7	2.8
GDP	7313838	7965192	8987603	100.0	100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)		8.9	12.8
H1: April- September

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