2. The details of the estimates of GDP for Q2 of 2017-18 are presented below.
I. ESTIMATES OF GROSS VALUE ADDED (GVA) BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(a) At constant (2011-2012) prices
3. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q2 of 2017-18 is estimated at `31.66 lakh crore, as against `29.79 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 6.3 percent. Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at constant (2011-12) prices for Q2 of 2017-18 is estimated at `29.18 lakh crore, as against `27.51 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 6.1 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
4. The economic activities which registered growth of over 6.0 percent in Q2 of 2017-18 over Q2 of 2016-17 are ‘manufacturing’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services and ‘trade, hotels, transport & communication and services related to broadcasting’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘construction’ 'financial, insurance, real estate and professional services' and ‘Public administration, defence & other services’ is estimated to be 1.7 percent, 5.5 percent, 2.6 per cent, 5.7 percent and 6.0 percent respectively, during this period.
5. Industry analysis
The second quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Kharif season of 2017-18 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC), abridged financial results of listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG). Performance of key indicators of sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport etc., communication, banking and insurance during the period July-September 2017 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during July-September 2017 based on data received from BSE/NSE has been taken into account. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation include non-GST revenue and GST revenue based on GSTR filings as provided by Central Board of Excise and Customs, Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance. Data used for Q2 of 2017-18 is based on data reported as on date. Approach adopted for compiling Taxes on products at current and constant prices is given in the Annexure.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
5.1 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 1.7 percent as compared to growth of 4.1 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GVA from agriculture in Q2 of 2017-18, the production of food grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2017-18 declined by 2.8 percent as compared to the growth of 10.7 percent during the same period in 2016-17. Around 52.5 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of around 3.8 percent in Q2 of 2017-18.
Mining and quarrying
5.2. Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector grew by 5.5 percent as compared to decline of 1.3 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and IIP mining registered growth rates of 8.6 per cent, (-)0.7 percent and 7.2percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to (-)4.2 per cent, (-)3.3 percent and (-)1.5 percent respectively in Q2 of 2016-17.
Manufacturing
5.3 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 7.0 percent as compared to growth of 7.7 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 70 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE/NSE is 11.4 percent at current prices during Q2 of 2017-18. The growth in quasi - corporate and unorganized segment (which includes individual proprietorships and partnerships and khadi & village Industries has a share of around 20 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP manufacturing registered growth rate of 2.2 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to growth of 5.5 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.
Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services
5.4 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector grew by 7.6 percent as compared to growth of 5.1 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 6.1 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 3.1 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.
Construction
5.5 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 2.6 percent as compared to growth of 4.3 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of (-) 0.4 percent and 4.1 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 3.4 percent and 6.5 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.
Trade, Hotels and Transport & Communication and Services related to broadcasting
5.6. Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from this sector grew by 9.9 percent as compared to growth of 7.7 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. GVA from Trade sector is is estimated using an index of turnoverbased on Sales tax. With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on Sales tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is given in the Annexure. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of 5.0 per cent and (-) 2.9 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18. In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled at major ports and sales of commercial vehicles registered growth rates of 13.5 percent, 18.9 percent, 1.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively, during Q2 of 2017-18.
Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services
5.7 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from this sector grew 5.7 percent as compared to growth of 7.0 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 75 percent. The key indicator of this sector is the quarterly growth of corporate sector for computer related activities which is estimated from available data of listed companies. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 8.6 per cent, and 6.8 per cent, respectively as on September 2017 as against growth of 10.8 percent and 10.1 percent respectively as on September 2016.
Public administration and defence and other services
5.8 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from this sector grew by 6.0 percent as compared to growth of 9.5 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government revenue expenditure net of interest payments excluding subsidies grew by 0.8 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 20.8 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.
(b) At current prices
6. GDP is derived by adding taxes on products, net of subsidies on products, to GVA at basic prices. The taxes on products include both GST and non GST Revenue of Central and State Governments.
GDP at current prices in Q2 of 2017-18 is estimated at ` 40.22 lakh crore, as against ` 36.76 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 9.4 percent. GVA at basic price at current prices in Q2 of 2017-18, is estimated at ` 36.40 lakh crore, as against `33.52 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing an increase of 8.6 per cent.
(c) Price indices used as deflators
7. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, minerals, manufactured products and all commodities, has registered a growth of 3.4 percent, 2.1 percent, 2.4 per cent, and 2.6 percent respectively whereas electricity declined by 1.6 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 over Q2 of 2016-17. The consumer price index (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.0 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to growth of 5.2 percent during Q2 of 2016-17.
II. ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
8. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
9. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `23.05 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `21.07 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `17.06 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `16.02 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2017-18 are estimated at 57.3 per cent and 53.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.3 per cent and 53.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2016-17.Growth rates of PFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 9.4 percent and 6.5 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 11.9 percent and 7.9 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
10. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `5.43 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `5.07 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `3.96 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `3.81 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2017-18 are estimated at 13.5 per cent and 12.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 13.8 percent and 12.8 percent each in Q2 of 2016-17.Growth rates of GFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 7.1 percent and 4.1 percentrespectively during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 21.2 percent and 16.5 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
11. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `10.61 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `9.98 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `9.15 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `8.74 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2017-18 are estimated at 26.4 percent and 28.9 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 27.1 percent and 29.4 percent respectively in Q2 of 2016-17. Growth rates of GFCF at current and constant prices are estimated at 6.3 percent and 4.7 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 2.9 percent and 3.0 percent during Q2 of 2016-17.
12. Estimates of GVA at basic price by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and during April-September of 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.
13. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2017 (Q3 of 2017-18) will be on 28.02.2018.
STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at 2011-12 prices)
|
Industry
|
(`in crore)
|
Percentage change
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
over previous year
|
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing
|
371468
|
306694
|
380833
|
319173
|
389732
|
324521
|
2.5
|
4.1
|
2.3
|
1.7
|
|
2.mining & quarrying
|
87294
|
66214
|
86485
|
65368
|
85911
|
68967
|
-0.9
|
-1.3
|
-0.7
|
5.5
|
|
3.manufacturing
|
458128
|
464719
|
507223
|
500655
|
513139
|
535542
|
10.7
|
7.7
|
1.2
|
7.0
|
|
4.electricity,gas,water supply & other utility services
|
55324
|
57912
|
61018
|
60850
|
65289
|
65467
|
10.3
|
5.1
|
7.0
|
7.6
|
|
5.construction
|
222464
|
208855
|
229321
|
217790
|
233919
|
223539
|
3.1
|
4.3
|
2.0
|
2.6
|
|
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting
|
474733
|
466888
|
516958
|
503064
|
574261
|
553021
|
8.9
|
7.7
|
11.1
|
9.9
|
|
7.financial, insurance, real estate &professional services
|
594754
|
670123
|
650607
|
717077
|
692522
|
757968
|
9.4
|
7.0
|
6.4
|
5.7
|
|
8.Public administration, defence& other services
|
293784
|
334639
|
318963
|
366583
|
349356
|
388531
|
8.6
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
6.0
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
2557949
|
2576044
|
2751407
|
2750560
|
2904128
|
2917556
|
7.6
|
6.8
|
5.6
|
6.1
|
STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at 2011-12 prices)
|
Item
|
(`in crore)
|
RATES OF GDP (%)
|
|
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
|
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
|
1453347
|
1484050
|
1575613
|
1601797
|
1680481
|
1705978
|
53.6
|
53.8
|
54.0
|
53.9
|
|
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
|
286327
|
326759
|
333761
|
380561
|
391080
|
396284
|
11.3
|
12.8
|
12.6
|
12.5
|
|
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
|
849973
|
848892
|
912768
|
874494
|
927506
|
915211
|
31.0
|
29.4
|
29.8
|
28.9
|
|
4. Change in Stocks
|
67160
|
68126
|
73118
|
72171
|
73979
|
77000
|
2.5
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
|
5. Valuables
|
40244
|
46978
|
34687
|
36783
|
105716
|
75408
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
3.4
|
2.4
|
|
6. Exports
|
583423
|
599072
|
594947
|
608293
|
602159
|
615706
|
20.2
|
20.4
|
19.4
|
19.4
|
|
7. Less Imports
|
623959
|
656986
|
620649
|
631865
|
703827
|
679194
|
21.1
|
21.2
|
22.6
|
21.5
|
|
8. Discrepancies
|
69359
|
53206
|
37601
|
36584
|
33052
|
59271
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
1.9
|
|
GDP
|
2725873
|
2770097
|
2941846
|
2978817
|
3110145
|
3165664
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)
|
|
|
7.9
|
7.5
|
5.7
|
6.3
|
|
|
|
|
STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at current prices)
|
Industry
|
(`in crore)
|
Percentage change
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
over previous year
|
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing
|
487463
|
411860
|
535817
|
453016
|
537540
|
469624
|
9.9
|
10.0
|
0.3
|
3.7
|
|
2.mining & quarrying
|
89202
|
62948
|
74069
|
57256
|
82270
|
64661
|
-17.0
|
-9.0
|
11.1
|
12.9
|
|
3.manufacturing
|
510270
|
513542
|
561546
|
557478
|
583080
|
610611
|
10.0
|
8.6
|
3.8
|
9.5
|
|
4.electricity,gas,water supply & other utility services
|
80345
|
83635
|
84781
|
85543
|
91306
|
90509
|
5.5
|
2.3
|
7.7
|
5.8
|
|
5.construction
|
257820
|
240308
|
263908
|
253148
|
275466
|
266501
|
2.4
|
5.3
|
4.4
|
5.3
|
|
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication
& services related to broadcasting
|
554319
|
542097
|
599817
|
589846
|
686195
|
661949
|
8.2
|
8.8
|
14.4
|
12.2
|
|
7.financial, insurance, real estate & professional services
|
690702
|
774052
|
768015
|
856073
|
837108
|
928437
|
11.2
|
10.6
|
9.0
|
8.5
|
|
8.Public administration, defence& other services
|
380690
|
435775
|
428746
|
499351
|
484492
|
548129
|
12.6
|
14.6
|
13.0
|
9.8
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
3050811
|
3064217
|
3316698
|
3351712
|
3577457
|
3640421
|
8.7
|
9.4
|
7.9
|
8.6
|
STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at current prices)
|
Item
|
(`in crore)
|
RATES OF GDP (%)
|
|
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
|
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
|
1823568
|
1883076
|
2042054
|
2106743
|
2226885
|
2304645
|
57.4
|
57.3
|
57.3
|
57.3
|
|
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
|
357350
|
418342
|
433530
|
507156
|
519320
|
543314
|
12.2
|
13.8
|
13.4
|
13.5
|
|
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
|
978519
|
969396
|
1036732
|
997746
|
1068642
|
1060787
|
29.2
|
27.1
|
27.5
|
26.4
|
|
4. Change in Stocks
|
74613
|
75091
|
81641
|
81050
|
83610
|
87945
|
2.3
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
|
5. Valuables
|
44737
|
50605
|
37948
|
44450
|
108658
|
78119
|
1.1
|
1.2
|
2.8
|
1.9
|
|
6. Exports
|
671293
|
687100
|
687415
|
708729
|
708680
|
733272
|
19.3
|
19.3
|
18.2
|
18.2
|
|
7. Less Imports
|
757976
|
795275
|
746878
|
765671
|
860680
|
840618
|
21.0
|
20.8
|
22.2
|
20.9
|
|
8. Discrepancies
|
28174
|
38139
|
-17506
|
-4413
|
28666
|
54871
|
-0.5
|
-0.1
|
0.7
|
1.4
|
|
GDP
|
3220278
|
3326474
|
3554938
|
3675789
|
3883781
|
4022335
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)
|
|
|
10.4
|
10.5
|
9.3
|
9.4
|
|
|
|
|
STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at 2011-12 prices)
|
|
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
|
|
|
(`in crore)
|
Percentage change
|
|
Industry
|
GVA at Basic Price in H1
|
Over previous year H1
|
|
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
|
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing
|
678162
|
700007
|
714253
|
3.2
|
2.0
|
|
2.mining & quarrying
|
153508
|
151853
|
154877
|
-1.1
|
2.0
|
|
3.manufacturing
|
922847
|
1007877
|
1048682
|
9.2
|
4.0
|
|
4.electricity,gas,water supply & other utility services
|
113236
|
121867
|
130756
|
7.6
|
7.3
|
|
5.construction
|
431319
|
447110
|
457458
|
3.7
|
2.3
|
|
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting
|
941621
|
1020022
|
1127282
|
8.3
|
10.5
|
|
7.financial, insurance, real estate & professional services
|
1264877
|
1367684
|
1450490
|
8.1
|
6.1
|
|
8.Public administration, defence & other services
|
628423
|
685546
|
737886
|
9.1
|
7.6
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
5133993
|
5501967
|
5821683
|
7.2
|
5.8
|
STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at 2011-12 prices)
|
|
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
|
|
|
(`. in crore)
|
Rates of GDP (%)
|
|
Item
|
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1
|
in H1
|
|
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
|
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
|
2937396
|
3177410
|
3386459
|
53.7
|
54.0
|
|
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure
|
613085
|
714322
|
787364
|
12.1
|
12.5
|
|
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
|
1698866
|
1787262
|
1842717
|
30.2
|
29.4
|
|
4. Change in Stocks
|
135287
|
145289
|
150979
|
2.5
|
2.4
|
|
5. Valuables
|
87221
|
71469
|
181123
|
1.2
|
2.9
|
|
6. Exports
|
1182494
|
1203240
|
1217865
|
20.3
|
19.4
|
|
7. Less Imports
|
1280944
|
1252514
|
1383021
|
21.2
|
22.0
|
|
8. Discrepancies
|
122565
|
74185
|
92323
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
|
GDP
|
5495970
|
5920663
|
6275810
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)
|
|
7.7
|
6.0
|
|
|
STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at current prices)
|
|
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
|
|
|
(` in crore)
|
Percentage change
|
|
Industry
|
GVA at Basic Price in H1
|
over previous year H1
|
|
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
|
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing
|
899323
|
988833
|
1007164
|
10.0
|
1.9
|
|
2.mining&quarrying
|
152150
|
131325
|
146930
|
-13.7
|
11.9
|
|
3.manufacturing
|
1023812
|
1119023
|
1193692
|
9.3
|
6.7
|
|
4.electricity,gas,watersupply & other utility services
|
163980
|
170324
|
181816
|
3.9
|
6.7
|
|
5.construction
|
498129
|
517056
|
541967
|
3.8
|
4.8
|
|
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting
|
1096416
|
1189663
|
1348144
|
8.5
|
13.3
|
|
7.financial, insurance, real estate & professional services
|
1464754
|
1624089
|
1765544
|
10.9
|
8.7
|
|
8.Public administration, defence & other services
|
816465
|
928097
|
1032622
|
13.7
|
11.3
|
|
GVA at Basic Price
|
6115029
|
6668410
|
7217878
|
9.0
|
8.2
|
STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at current prices)
|
|
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
|
|
|
(` in crore)
|
Rates of GDP (%)
|
|
Item
|
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1
|
in H1
|
|
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
|
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
|
3706644
|
4148798
|
4531531
|
57.4
|
57.3
|
|
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure
|
775692
|
940686
|
1062634
|
13.0
|
13.4
|
|
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
|
1947914
|
2034477
|
2129428
|
28.1
|
26.9
|
|
4. Change in Stocks
|
149704
|
162691
|
171554
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
|
5. Valuables
|
95343
|
82397
|
186777
|
1.1
|
2.4
|
|
6. Exports
|
1358392
|
1396144
|
1441952
|
19.3
|
18.2
|
|
7. Less Imports
|
1553251
|
1512548
|
1701298
|
20.9
|
21.5
|
|
8. Discrepancies
|
66313
|
-21919
|
83537
|
-0.3
|
1.1
|
|
GDP
|
6546752
|
7230726
|
7906117
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
|
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)
|
|
10.4
|
9.3
|
|
|
|
H1: April- September
|
|
|
|
|
|
ANNEXURE
Methodology of Estimation
(1) Taxes on products at current prices
Taxes on products for compiling GDP include both GST and non-GST revenue. GST revenue based on GSTR filings as provided by Central Board of Excise and Customs, Department of Revenue, Ministry Finance has been used. This include CGST, SGST, UTGST, IGST (domestic and imports), Cess (Domestic and Imports). The non- GST revenue include Central and State excise duties, custom duties and sales tax on goods outside the tax base of GST like Crude oil, Petrol, Diesel, ATF& Natural gas and Alcohol for human consumption etc.
(2) Taxes on products at constant prices
Present methodology of compiling constant price estimates of taxes on products by volume extrapolation has been adopted in line with the methodology prescribed under of System of National accounts, 2008. Volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes.
(3) Estimating GVA from trade sector.
GVA from Trade sector is estimated using an index of turnover based on Sales tax. With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. In the GSTR-3B returns that are now being filed, total outward taxable supplies is available without HSN/SAC codes. This taxable value of outward supplies is inclusive of both services and goods. Sales Tax/VAT is imposed on sale or purchase of goods. Till such time the taxable value of goods supplied become available from tax records, a comparable estimate of turn over based on sales tax will have to be estimated. Following three approaches to project likely sales tax collection were examined.
(a) Ratio of Sales tax collected on specific products like POL which are outside the tax base of GST and the total sales tax collected from 2014-15 onwards were examined. It was observed that the ratios were by and large stable. Using this relationship, likely sales tax collection for second quarter of 2017-18 was projected.
(b) Forecasting quarterly sales tax data for Q2 2017-18 based on regression of Sales tax on value of output of commodity producing sectors available from 2011-12 onwards. To account for seasonal fluctuations, seasonal dummy variables were used.
(c) Estimating sales tax collection by using nominal growth in output of commodity producing sectors that are taxed.
The above three approaches were placed before the Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS). The ACNAS recommended using an average of estimates obtained by adopting three approaches.
***
Rds/NB