Rainfall Forecast issued by India Meteorological Department for the next three days indicate that Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls in Gujarat and Rajasthan during the period 21st to 24th July 2017.
Due to this rivers Chambal and its tributaries, Mahi, Sabarmati, Banas (West Flowing River) are likely to receive significant water flows in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat.
The likely impact of these rains as inferred from rainfall runoff model run for three days advisory forecast is likely rapid rise in the river levels in the following basins as under:
Chambal Basin in districts of Indore, Ujjain, Ratlam, Mandsaur and Neemuch in Madhya Pradesh, Kota and Jhalawar districts in Rajasthan.
Mahi Basin: River Mahi and its tributaries in districts of Jhabua, Dhar, Ratlam in Madhya Pradesh, Udaipur, Dungarpur and Banswara districts in Rajasthan and Panchmahal, Mahisagar and Kheda districts of Gujarat are likely to observe rapid rise in water levels. Inflows into Mahi Bajaj Sagar in Banswara district of Rajasthanare likely to raise the level in the reservoir. However as sufficient storage is still available, there may not be any likelihood of release from Mahi Bajaj Sagar. In the case of Som Kamla Amba Dam in Dungarpur district of Rajasthan, presently the dam is filled upto 54% of its gross capacity as on 21st July 2017. With likely rainfall in the next three days, there is a chance for this reservoir to rise very near its full capacity. Hence, release if any is to be undertaken may be decided judiciously taking into consideration the downstream condition and rainfall. In case of Kadana Dam in Mahisagar district of Gujarat which is 62% full as on 21st July 2017, there is a chance of reservoir getting very close to its full level. Sufficient care may please be taken while releasing water ensuring the safety of downstream reaches taking into consideration the rainfall and other hydrological characteristics.
Sabarmati Basin: River Sabarmati and its tributaries in districts of Udaipur, Sirohi, Pali and Dungarpur in Rajasthan, Sabarkantha, Mehsana, Ahmadabad, Gandhinagar and Kheda districts of Gujarat are likely to observe rapid rise in water levels. Dharoi dam in Mehsana district of Gujarat is having storage of 32% of its capacity as on 21st July 2017 and is having sufficient storage to fill up. Hence release if any may be done judiciously taking into account rainfall conditions in the downstream reaches.
Banas Basin: River Banas and its tributaries are likely to rise rapidly in the districts of Udaipur and Sirohi in Rajasthan and in Banaskanta district of Gujarat. Dantiwada dam on river Banas in Banaskanta district of Gujarat is having storage of only 17% as on 221st July 2017. This will significantly rise due to the rains during the next 3 days.
There is likelihood of heavy rain in Kutch areas of Gujarat and in Morvi, Rajkot, Bhavnagar and Jamnagar districts of Saurashtra and Kutch also. Since most of the dams in these areas such as Machchhu-I and II, Und etc are very near their full levels, very strict vigil may please be maintained for the safety of the structure as well as downstream areas in association with the rainfall likely to occur during the next three days.
The rainfall in Jhalawar, Pali, Chittorgarh districts of Rajasthan may also see increase in water levels of many of the tributaries of Chambal.
Samir/JD/jk